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L-NP support increases after PM Abbott commits to sending Australian troops to Iraq

Finding No. 6111– This multi-mode Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted via face-to-face and SMS interviewing over the last two weekends, February 28/ March 1 & 7/8, 2015 with an Australia-wide cross-section of 3,182 Australian electors aged 18+, of all electors surveyed 2.5% did not name a party.

L-NP support increased to 46.5% (up 2.5%), however still clearly behind the ALP 53.5% (down 2.5%) on a two-party preferred basis.  If a Federal Election were held now the ALP would win according to this week’s Morgan Poll on voting intention conducted over the last two weekends, February 28/March 1 & 7/8, 2015, with an Australia-wide cross-section of 3,182 Australian electors aged 18+.

Primary support for the L-NP increased to 39% (up 1.5%) now just ahead of the ALP 38% (down 2.5%). Support for the other parties shows The Greens at 11.5% (up 1.5%), Palmer United Party (PUP) 2% (unchanged) while Independents/ Others were down 0.5% to 9.5%.

Support for PUP is highest in Clive Palmer’s home State of Queensland (4%) with little support in all other states.

Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is up to 94pts (up 4pts) this week with 43.5% (down 1%) of Australians saying Australia is ‘heading in the wrong direction’ and 37.5% (up 3%) saying Australia is ‘heading in the right direction’.

Analysis by Gender

Analysis by Gender now shows support higher for the ALP amongst women:  ALP 56% (down 0.5%) cf. L-NP 44% (up 0.5%). Support amongst men is divided - 50% support for both major parties.

Analysis by Age group

Analysis by Age group shows the ALP still with its strongest advantage among younger Australians. 18-24yr olds heavily favour the ALP 63.5% cf. L-NP 36.5%; 25-34yr olds also heavily favour the ALP 60.5% cf. L-NP 39.5%; 35-49yr olds favour the ALP 54% cf. L-NP 46%; 50-64yr olds ALP 55.5% cf. L-NP 44.5%; and those aged 65+ still heavily favour the L-NP 59.5% cf. ALP 40.5%.

Analysis by States

The ALP maintains a two-party preferred lead in all Australian States except South Australia. Tasmania: ALP 62% cf.  L-NP 38%; Victoria: ALP 58% cf. L-NP 42%; Queensland: ALP 52.5% cf. L-NP 47.5%; Western Australia: ALP 53% cf. L-NP 47%; New South Wales: ALP 51% cf. L- NP 49% and South Australia L-NP 55.5% cf. ALP 44.5%.  

The Morgan Poll surveys a larger sample (including people who only use a mobile phone) than any other public opinion poll. The Morgan Poll asks Minor Party supporters which way they will vote their preferences. *News Corp’s poll does not measure or reference the PUP vote!

The Morgan Poll allocated preferences based on how people say they will vote – allocating preferences by how electors voted at the last Federal Election, as used by News Corp’s poll* shows the ALP (53.5%) cf. L-NP (46.5%) – for trends see the Morgan Poll historic data table.

Gary Morgan says:

“The L-NP 46.5% (up 2.5%) has significantly cut the strong lead of the ALP 53.5% (down 2.5%) on a two-party preferred basis this week after Prime Minister Tony Abbott committed to sending 300 Australian troops to Iraq to help train the Iraqi army in its fight against the Islamic State (ISIS).

The Morgan Poll has consistently shown a short-term boost to Prime Ministers that commit Australian forces to international battlefields. However, this ‘rallying around the Flag’ and increase of support is not maintained unless the troop commitments are judged as a success.

“The troop deployment was initially flagged during a joint press conference with New Zealand Prime Minister John Key – New Zealand is itself sending around 140 troops to participate in the training missions – and confirmed last week after Abbott consulted Cabinet and backbenchers.

“Abbott claims that sending the 300 troops is ‘not mission creep, it’s the successful execution of the original mission’. However, Abbott has thus far failed to clearly outline what will constitute a successful deployment for the troops claiming that ‘I’m not going to be too prescriptive at this stage. What we want to do is help to train an effective Iraqi regular army’.”

Electors were asked: “If an election for the House of Representatives were held today – which party will receive your first preference?”

Visit the Roy Morgan Online Store to browse our range of Voter Profiles by electorate, detailed Voting Intention Demographics Reports and Most important Political Issue Reports (all 150 electorates ranked by an issue).

Finding No. 6111– This multi-mode Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted via face-to-face and SMS interviewing over the last two weekends, February 28/ March 1 & 7/8, 2015 with an Australia-wide cross-section of 3,182 Australian electors aged 18+, of all electors surveyed 2.5% did not name a party.

For further information:

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Data Tables


Morgan Poll on Federal Voting Intention - March 10, 2015

Roy Morgan GCR

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

500

±4.5

±3.9

±2.7

±1.9

1,000

±3.2

±2.7

±1.9

±1.4

1,500

±2.6

±2.2

±1.5

±1.1

2,000

±2.2

±1.9

±1.3

±1.0