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Mike Baird set to lead L-NP to clear victory in NSW Election

This special SMS Morgan Poll on State voting intention and preferred Premier and in New South Wales was conducted earlier this week on March 13-15, 2015 with a cross-section of 1,287 New South Wales electors.

A special SMS Morgan Poll on State voting intention conducted this weekend (March 13-15, 2015) with a representative cross-section of 1,287 New South Wales electors shows the L-NP set for victory in next week’s NSW State Election – L-NP (55.5%, up 3% since February 20-22, 2015) cf. ALP (44.5%, down 3%) on a two-party preferred basis. The NSW Election is scheduled for Saturday March 28, 2015.

NEW SOUTH WALES: L-NP will win the State Election easily

2PP: L-NP 55.5% (up 3% since February 20-22, 2015) cf. ALP 44.5% (down 3%).

Primary vote: L-NP 46.5% (up 3.5%), ALP 33.5% (down 2.5%), Greens 11.5% (up 1%), Christian Democrats 1.5% (unchanged) and Independents/ Others 7% (down 2%).

Change since the last NSW State Election in 2011

2PP: L-NP 55.5% (down 8.7% since the 2011 NSW State Election) cf. ALP 44.5% (up 8.7%).

Primary vote: L-NP 46.5% (down 4.6%), ALP 33.5% (up 7.9%), Greens 11.5% (up 1.2%), Christian Democrats 1.5% (down 1.6%) and Independents/ Others 7% (down 2.9%).

 

Better Premier: Premier Mike Baird (Liberal) v Luke Foley (ALP):
Without can’t say: Mr. Baird 64% (down 5%) cf. Mr. Foley 36% (up 5%); Lead to Mr. Baird 28% (down 10%).

New South Wales real unemployment is now 9.4% (down 1% since December–January 2015) and under-employment is 6.9% (down 2.2%). This means total New South Wales unemployment & under-employment is 16.3% (down 3.2%). (Interviewed in January – February 2015).

New South Wales State Election is scheduled for Saturday March 28, 2015.

Gary Morgan says:

“NSW Premier Mike Baird is set to end the Liberal Party’s recent run of outs at State Elections – the Liberals have lost three straight State Elections in South Australia, Victoria, and this year in Queensland – with a comfortable election victory in next week’s New South Wales Election.

“Baird, who became Premier less than a year ago after former Liberal Premier Barry O’Farrell resigned following revelations from a NSW ICAC inquiry, has increased the Coalition’s lead in recent weeks with the L-NP 55.5% (up 3% since February 20-22, 2015) cf. ALP 44.5% (down 3%) on a two-party preferred basis.

“When asked who they preferred as Premier New South Wales electors clearly favoured Baird (64%, down 5%) cf. Opposition Leader Luke Foley (36%, up 5%). Increasing name recognition for Foley is likely to have helped Foley increase his ratings in recent weeks although he still trails far behind Australia’s most popular Premier. 

“Pre-polling stations opened across New South Wales yesterday and up to a quarter of New South Wales electors are expected to take the chance to vote before Election Day (Saturday March 28, 2015). The increase in voting early means the major parties already have all their major policies on show with the key issues in this election being the contentious sale of electricity assets, infrastructure development particularly in Sydney, and in several rural electorates the exploitation of coal seam gas.

“Despite Baird taking a controversial position in support of the sale of New South Wales electricity assets it appears Baird has done enough over the past year as Premier to convince NSW electors to elect him as Premier in his own right next week.”


For the poll-watchers:

Electors were asked: “If a State Election for New South Wales were being held today — which party would receive your first preference?” Electors were then asked: “Thinking of Premier Mike Baird and Opposition Leader Luke Foley. In your opinion, who would make the better Premier?

This special SMS Morgan Poll on State voting intention and preferred Premier and in New South Wales was conducted earlier this week on March 13-15, 2015 with a cross-section of 1,287 New South Wales electors.


For further information:

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