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New Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews strengthens lead while new Queensland Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk preferred Premier by men for the first time

The SMS Morgan Poll on State voting intention and preferred Premiers was conducted earlier this week on March 13-15, 2015 with a cross-section of 5,955 Australian electors including 1,287 New South Wales electors, 1,260 Victorian electors, 994 Queensland electors, 801 Western Australian electors, 815 South Australian electors and 432 Tasmanian electors.

A special SMS Morgan Poll on State voting intention conducted over this week (March 13-15, 2015) with a representative cross-section of 5,955 Australian electors shows new Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews leading the ALP to a comfortable lead on a two-party preferred basis: ALP (56%) cf. L-NP (44%). However, in Queensland, the new ALP Government actually trails on a two-party preferred basis only weeks after being elected: LNP (51%) cf. ALP (49%).

VICTORIA: ALP would win an Election easily

2PP: ALP 56% (up 1.5% since February 13-15, 2015) cf. L-NP 44% (down 1.5%).

Primary vote: ALP 43% (up 1.5%), L-NP 38% (down 1.5%); Greens 12% (up 0.5%), Family First 2% (down 0.5%), Country Alliance 0.5% (unchanged) and Independents/ Others 4.5% (unchanged).

Better Premier: Premier Daniel Andrews (ALP) v Matthew Guy (Liberal): Mr. Andrews 62.5% (unchanged) cf. Mr. Guy 37.5% (unchanged); Lead to Mr. Andrews 25% (unchanged).

Victorian real unemployment is now 10.2% (up 0.2% since December 2014 – January 2015) and under-employment is 10% (up 0.7%). This means total Victorian unemployment & under-employment is 20.2% (up 0.9%). (Interviewed January – February 2015).

Last Victorian State Election was held on Saturday November 29, 2014.


QUEENSLAND: Election in January resulted in a ‘Hung’ Parliament . Still very close

2PP#: LNP 51% (down 0.5% since February 13-15, 2015) cf. ALP 49% (up 0.5%). Female electors: ALP 52% (down 1%) cf. LNP 48% (up 1%). Male electors: LNP 55.5% (down 0.5%) cf. ALP 44.5% (up 0.5%).

Primary vote electors: LNP 44% (unchanged), ALP 36.5% (down 1%), Greens 9.5% (up 1.5%), Katter’s Australian Party 2.5% (unchanged), Palmer United Party 1.5% (down 1.5%), Family First 2% (up 1%), Independents/ Others 4% (unchanged). Female electors: ALP 39.5% (down 2.5%), LNP 40.5% (up 0.5%), Greens 9.5% (up 0.5%), Katter’s Australian Party 2% (unchanged) Palmer United Party 1.5% (down 0.5%), Family First 2.5% (up 1.5%), Independents/ Others 4.5% (up 0.5%). Male electors: LNP 47.5% (down 0.5%), ALP 34% (up 1.5%), Greens 9.5% (up 2.5%), Katter’s Australian Party 3% (down 1%), Palmer United Party 1% (down 3%), Family First 1% (unchanged), Independents/ Others 4% (up 0.5%).

Better Premier: Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk (ALP) v Lawrence Springborg (LNP) electors:
Ms. Palaszczuk 61% (up 8.5% since February 13-15, 2015) cf. Mr. Springborg 39% (down 8.5%); Lead to Ms Palaszczuk 22% (up 17%). Female electors: Ms. Palaszczuk 66% (up 8%) cf. Mr. Springborg 34% (down 8%). Male electors: Ms. Palaszczuk 56% (up 9%) cf. Mr. Springborg 44% (down 9%).

Queensland real unemployment is now 10.7% (down 1.1% since December 2014 – January 2015) and under-employment is 9.2% (up 0.2%). This means total Queensland unemployment & under-employment is 19.9% (down 0.9%). (Interviewed January – February 2015).

Last Queensland State Election was held on Saturday January 31, 2015.


WESTERN AUSTRALIA: Election would be too close to call

2PP: ALP 50.5% (up 0.5% since February 13-15, 2015) cf. L-NP 49.5% (down 0.5%).

Primary vote: Liberal 35% (down 1%), WA Nationals 6.5% (down 0.5%), ALP 34% (down 1%), Greens 14.5% (unchanged), Christians 2% (up 0.5%), Palmer United Party 2% (up 0.5%) and Independents/ Others 6% (up 1.5%).

Better Premier: Premier Colin Barnett (Liberal) v Mark McGowan (ALP): Mr. McGowan 60.5% (unchanged) cf. Mr. Barnett 39.5% (unchanged); Lead to Mr McGowan 21% (unchanged).

Western Australian real unemployment is now 9.7% (up 1.3% since November 2014 - January 2015) and under-employment is 6.7% (down 0.3%). This means total Western Australian unemployment & under-employment is 16.4% (up 1%). (Interviewed during December 2014 – February 2015).

Western Australia State Election is due to be held in March 2017.


SOUTH AUSTRALIA: ALP would win Election

2PP: ALP 53% (unchanged since February 13-15, 2015) cf. L-NP 47% (unchanged).

Primary vote: ALP 37.5% (down 0.5%), L-NP 38% (unchanged), Greens 12.5% (up 1%), Family First 5% (up 1%), Palmer United Party 1.5% (unchanged) and Independents/ Others 5.5% (down 1.5%).

Better Premier: Premier Jay Weatherill (ALP) v Steve Marshall (Liberal): Mr. Weatherill 51.5% (down 3%) cf. Mr. Marshall 48.5% (up 3%); Lead to Mr Weatherill 3% (down 6%).

South Australian real unemployment is now 11.4% (up 0.7% since November 2014 – January 2015) and under-employment is 11.6% (up 2.2%). This means total South Australian unemployment & under-employment is 23% (up 2.9%). (Interviewed during December 2014 – February, 2015).

South Australia State Election is due to be held in March 2018.


TASMANIA: ALP would win Election easily

2PP: ALP 55.5% (up 1% since February 13-15, 2015) cf. Liberals 44.5% (down 1%) – Estimate. Two-Party preferred vote is not applicable to the Tasmanian lower house which uses the Hare-Clark proportional voting system.

Primary vote: ALP 41% (up 1.5%), Liberals 39% (unchanged), Greens 15.5% (up 1.5%), Palmer United Party 0.5% (down 2%) and Independents/ Others 4% (down 1%).

Better Premier: Premier Will Hodgman (Liberal) v Bryan Green (ALP): Mr. Hodgman 58.5% (unchanged); Mr. Green 41.5% (unchanged); Lead to Mr Hodgman 17% (unchanged).

Tasmanian real unemployment is now 8.7% (down 0.8% since November 2014 – January 2015) and under-employment is 15.7% (up 2.5%). This means total Tasmanian unemployment & under-employment is 24.4% (up 1.7%). (Interviewed during December 2014 – February 2015).

Tasmanian State Election is due to be held in March 2018.


Gary Morgan, Executive Chairman, Roy Morgan Research, says:

“Today’s special SMS State Morgan Poll conducted around Australia earlier this week shows new Victorian Premier continuing to enjoy an impressive honeymoon period with the ALP 56% (up 1.5% since February) cf. L-NP 44% (down 1.5%) now even further ahead on a two-party preferred basis and Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews 62.5% (unchanged) maintaining his strong lead over Opposition Leader Matthew Guy 37.5% (unchanged) when electors are asked to choose the ‘Better Premier’.

“However, in Queensland, the new ALP Government led by new Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk continues to trail despite their ‘shock win’ at the Queensland State Election just over six weeks ago. The LNP 51% (down 0.5%) leads the ALP 49% (up 0.5%) on a two-party preferred basis although Palaszczuk clearly leads as ‘Better Premier’: Palaszczuk 61% (up 8.5%) cf. Opposition Leader Lawrence Springborg 39% (down 8.5%). For the first time since becoming Premier Palaszczuk leads amongst both female electors: Palaszczuk 66% (up 8%) cf. Springborg 34% (down 8%) and male electors: Palaszczuk 56% (up 9%) cf. Springborg 44% (down 9%).

“In Western Australia the ALP 50.5% (up 0.5%) holds a narrow two-party preferred lead over the L-NP 49.5% (down 0.5%) while in South Australia the Government clearly has the advantage with the ALP 53% (unchanged) well ahead of the L-NP 47% (unchanged) on a two-party preferred basis. Further south in Tasmania the ALP also holds a clear lead, although from Opposition, with the ALP 55.5% (up 1%) cf. Liberals 44.5% (down 1%).”


For the poll-watchers:

Electors were asked: “If a State Election for NSW/ Victoria/ Queensland/ WA/ SA/ Tasmania were being held today — which party would receive your first preference?” Electors were then asked: “Thinking of (Premier) and (Opposition Leader). In your opinion, who would make the better Premier?

The SMS Morgan Poll on State voting intention and preferred Premiers was conducted earlier this week on March 13-15, 2015 with a cross-section of 5,955 Australian electors including 1,287 New South Wales electors, 1,260 Victorian electors, 994 Queensland electors, 801 Western Australian electors, 815 South Australian electors and 432 Tasmanian electors.

As all ‘poll-watchers’ know News Corp’s ‘dislike’ of Clive Palmer means Newspoll doesn’t include the Palmer United Party (PUP) as an alternative in their Federal or State polls which leads to misleading results.

#As there is no two-party preferred result released by the Queensland Electoral Commission for the Queensland Election the estimate for the 2015 Queensland Election is provided by ABC electoral analyst Antony Green showing the 2015 Queensland Election as ALP (51%) cf. LNP (49%).


For further information:

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