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National support slips but would win a close election as New Zealand get set to host Cricket World Cup Quarter-Final

Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?” This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile telephone, with a NZ wide cross-section of 896 electors from March 2-15, 2015. Of all electors surveyed 3.5% (down 1.5%) didn’t name a party.

Today’s New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows National falling to 46.5% (down 2.5% since February). However, support has increased for Prime Minister John Key’s Coalition partners with the Maori Party 2% (up 1%) and Act NZ 1% (up 1%) although United Future is still on 0% (unchanged).

Support for the main opposition Labour Party is at 31% (up 1% - their highest level of support for nearly a year since May 2014) but down for the Greens 11% (down 1%) while NZ First is 6% (unchanged). For the parties outside Parliament the Conservative Party of NZ is 1.5% (unchanged) while the Internet-Mana Party alliance is at 0% (unchanged) and support for Independent/ Others is 1% (up 0.5%).

If a National Election were held now the latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows that National would win in a close election.

The latest NZ Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has risen sharply to 140.5pts (up 16.5pts) following New Zealand’s undefeated start to the Cricket World Cup. There are now 64.5% (up 9.5%) of NZ electors saying NZ is ‘heading in the right direction’ compared to just 24% (down 7%) that say NZ is ‘heading in the wrong direction’. NZ Government Confidence is still substantially higher than in Australia – Australian Government Confidence last week was at 94pts.

Gary Morgan, Executive Chairman, Roy Morgan Research, says:

“Despite a second straight month of declining support in March Prime Minister John Key’s National 46.5% (down 2.5%) still enjoys a comprehensive lead over the opposition Labour Party 31% (up 1%) – the highest level of support for Labour for nearly a year since May 2014.

“Despite the second consecutive drop in support for National, the Roy Morgan New Zealand Government Confidence Rating has increased strongly to 140.5pts (up 16.5pts) with 64.5% (up 9.5%) of New Zealanders saying New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’. In addition, ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence has increased marginally in March to 124.6 (up 0.6pts) – well above Australian Consumer Confidence at 110.8.

“The positive mood in New Zealand this month is supported by a so-far successful Cricket World Cup run with New Zealand winning all six group matches – including a thrilling 1 wicket victory over arch-rival Australia. New Zealand host former World Cup Winners the West Indies this weekend in a World Cup Quarter-Final in Wellington. A victory for the Black Caps will see New Zealand hosting South Africa next week in a World Cup Semi-Final in Auckland.”

Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?” This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile telephone, with a NZ wide cross-section of 896 electors from March 2-15, 2015. Of all electors surveyed 3.5% (down 1.5%) didn’t name a party.


Roy Morgan New Zealand Interactive Voting Charts

These interactive charts allow a deeper look at voting patterns in New Zealand over varying timeframes and provide election observers with the ability to pinpoint key turning points for the political parties.

View interactive New Zealand Election charts here.

Purchase the latest Roy Morgan New Zealand Electorate Profiles.



For further information:

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Gary Morgan:

+61 3 9224 5213

+61 411 129 094

Michele Levine:

+61 3 9224 5215

+61 411 129 093



Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

500

±4.5

±3.9

±2.7

±1.9

1,000

±3.2

±2.7

±1.9

±1.4

1,500

±2.6

±2.2

±1.5

±1.1

2,000

±2.2

±1.9

±1.3

±1.0