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ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Shows Slight Improvement but Real Test is Ahead
March 24 2015
- Finding No.
Consumer Confidence Press Release
Data collected last weekend (Saturday and Sunday), based on 1,026 face-to-face interviews.
ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence edged 0.5% higher to 111.4 in the week ending March 22, following a similar sized rise in the previous week. Despite the modest improvement, confidence remains below long run average levels and 2.7% below levels a year ago.
ANZ Chief Economist Warren Hogan commented:
- The rise last week was driven by improving confidence in the economic outlook over the next year (+3.1%) and next five years (+3.3%). However, levels of both sub-indices remain subdued.
- Surprisingly, ‘household finances compared to a year ago’, the sub-index most correlated with household spending, more than reversed the previous week’s bounce, falling 4.2% to the lowest level since August 2014. However, we would caution against over-interpreting this decline. Weekly data is volatile and further, the relationship between this sub-index and household spending has weakened in recent years.
“While sentiment towards the housing sector has been clearly bolstered by the February rate cut, overall consumer confidence has not responded. The next key tests for the ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Index are a prospective rate cut in Q2 and the May Federal budget. The response of confidence to these two key events will be important as to how consumer spending evolves into the second half of 2015.”
Click to view the PDF of the ANZ-Roy Morgan Weekly Consumer Confidence Release.
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Related Research Reports
The latest Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Monthly Report is available on the Roy Morgan Online Store. It provides demographic breakdowns for Age, Sex, State, Region (Capital Cities/ Country), Generations, Lifecycle, Socio-Economic Scale, Work Status, Occupation, Home Ownership, Voting Intention, Roy Morgan Value Segments and more.
You can also view our monitor of Monthly Australian Unemployment & Under-employment Estimates.