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Federal ALP increases lead as NSW prepares to vote in State Election

Finding No. 6138– This multi-mode Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted via face-to-face and SMS interviewing over the last two weekends, March 14/15 & 21/22, 2015 with an Australia-wide cross-section of 3,146 Australian electors aged 18+, of all electors surveyed 2% did not name a party.

ALP support increased to 56% (up 2.5%), still well clear of the L-NP 44% (down 2.5%) on a two-party preferred basis.  If a Federal Election were held now the ALP would win according to this week’s Morgan Poll on voting intention conducted over the last two weekends, March 14/15 & 21/22, 2015, with an Australia-wide cross-section of 3,146 Australian electors aged 18+.

Primary support for the ALP increased to 40% (up 2%) now ahead of the L-NP 38% (down 1%). Support for the other parties shows The Greens at 11% (down 0.5%), Palmer United Party (PUP) 1.5% (down 0.5%) while Independents/ Others were 9.5% (unchanged.

Support for PUP is highest in Western Australia (4%) and Tasmania (4%) with little support in all other States following the defection of Queensland PUP Senator Glenn Lazarus last week to become an Independent Senator alongside his former party colleague Jacqui Lambie, now an Independent Tasmanian Senator.

Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is down to 91pts (down 3pts) this week with 46% (up 2.5%) of Australians saying Australia is ‘heading in the wrong direction’ and 37% (down 0.5%) saying Australia is ‘heading in the right direction’.

Analysis by Gender

Analysis by Gender now shows support higher for the ALP amongst women:  ALP 59.5% (up 3.5%) cf. L-NP 40.5% (down 3.5%). Support amongst men is more evenly divided – ALP 53% (up 3%) cf. L-NP 47% (down 3%).

Analysis by Age group

Analysis by Age group shows the ALP still with its strongest advantage among younger Australians. 18-24yr olds heavily favour the ALP 65.5% cf. L-NP 34.5%; 25-34yr olds also heavily favour the ALP 64.5% cf. L-NP 35.5%; 35-49yr olds favour the ALP 61.5% cf. L-NP 38.5%; 50-64yr olds ALP 52% cf. L-NP 48% and those aged 65+ still heavily favour the L-NP 56% cf. ALP 44%.

Analysis by States

The ALP maintains a two-party preferred lead in all Australian States. Victoria ALP 60% cf. L-NP 40%; South Australia ALP 59% cf. L-NP 41%; Queensland: ALP 57% cf. L-NP 43%; New South Wales: ALP 52% cf. L- NP 48%; Tasmania: ALP 51.5% cf.  L-NP 48.5% and Western Australia: ALP 50.5% cf. L-NP 49.5%.  

The Morgan Poll surveys a larger sample (including people who only use a mobile phone) than any other public opinion poll. The Morgan Poll asks Minor Party supporters which way they will vote their preferences. *News Corp’s poll does not measure or reference the PUP vote!

The Morgan Poll allocated preferences based on how people say they will vote – allocating preferences by how electors voted at the last Federal Election, as used by News Corp’s poll* shows the ALP (54%) cf. L-NP (46%) – for trends see the Morgan Poll historic data table.

Gary Morgan says:

“The ALP 56% (up 2.5%) has increased its strong lead over the L-NP 44% (down 2.5%) on a two-party preferred basis despite what looks like the certain re-election this week of New South Wales Liberal Premier Mike Baird at the weekend. Last week’s special SMS Morgan Poll showed a comfortable lead for Baird’s Coalition in NSW: L-NP 55.5% cf. ALP 44.5%.

“Last week’s defection of Queensland Palmer United Party Senator Glenn Lazarus, who resigned from PUP to become an Independent Senator with immediate effect, appears to have had a direct detrimental impact on PUP’s support which fell to 1.5% (down 0.5%) – the lowest level of support for PUP since it won four seats at the 2013 Federal Election – including three Senators.

“The defection of Lazarus, following soon after Tasmanian Senator Jacqui Lambie also left PUP, means Clive Palmer now holds only one seat in the Senate – that of Western Australian PUP Senator Dio Wang. Palmer has lost the ‘balance of power’ in the Senate after only 18 months. The newly comprised Senate will continue to provide a headache to the Government’s legislative program – only last week Education Minister Christopher Pyne’s latest University reforms were once again rejected by the Senate cross-benchers – including Glenn Lazarus.

“Vale Malcom Fraser (1930-2015).

Malcolm Fraser was a good friend whom I knew for more than 40 years.

A lot of tributes have been conveyed about Malcolm Fraser’s political life. After becoming Liberal Party Leader in March 1975 his victory in the Bass by-election in June 1975 was the start of his ascent to the Prime Ministership later that same year.

“I believe Fraser would have polled better against Hawke in the 1983 Federal Election if he had debated him on TV – unfortunately in 1983 ‘party people' had too much influence over Prime Minister Fraser – similar to what appears to be happening to Prime Minister Abbott today!

On social issues Malcolm Fraser had more in common with American Republicans of the ‘Civil War-era’ who fought against slavery than today’s Australian conservatives. Unfortunately for Australia Fraser with his Country Party colleagues lacked business experience and consequently failed (even with a majority in both houses) to make much needed economic reforms – some of which were subsequently made by the Hawke Government during the 1980s.”


Former Prime Minister Malcolm Fraser is to receive a State Funeral later this week to honour his service to the Commonwealth of Australia.

Electors were asked: “If an election for the House of Representatives were held today – which party will receive your first preference?”

Visit the Roy Morgan Online Store to browse our range of Voter Profiles by electorate, detailed Voting Intention Demographics Reports and Most important Political Issue Reports (all 150 electorates ranked by an issue).

Finding No. 6138– This multi-mode Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted via face-to-face and SMS interviewing over the last two weekends, March 14/15 & 21/22, 2015 with an Australia-wide cross-section of 3,146 Australian electors aged 18+, of all electors surveyed 2% did not name a party.


For further information:

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Data Tables


Morgan Poll on Federal Voting Intention - March 23, 2015

Roy Morgan GCR

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

500

±4.5

±3.9

±2.7

±1.9

1,000

±3.2

±2.7

±1.9

±1.4

1,500

±2.6

±2.2

±1.5

±1.1

2,000

±2.2

±1.9

±1.3

±1.0