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Baird set for comfortable victory in tomorrow’s NSW Election as electors reject Foley’s ‘scare campaign’

This special SMS Morgan Poll on State voting intention and preferred Premier and in New South Wales was conducted last night, March 26, 2015 with a cross-section of 1,086 New South Wales electors.

A special SMS Morgan Poll on State voting intention conducted last night (March 26, 2015) with a representative cross-section of 1,086 New South Wales electors shows the L-NP maintain a strong lead and set for victory in tomorrow’s NSW State Election – L-NP 57.5% (down 6.7% since the 2011 NSW Election) cf. ALP 42.5% (up 6.7%) on a two-party preferred basis.

Change since the last NSW State Election in 2011

2PP: L-NP 57.5% (down 6.7% since the 2011 NSW State Election) cf. ALP 42.5% (up 6.7%).

Primary vote: L-NP 49% (down 2.1%), ALP 29% (up 3.4%), Greens 12.5% (up 2.2%), Christian Democrats 3% (down 0.1%) and Independents/ Others 6.5% (down 3.4%).

Change since last Morgan Poll (March 20-23, 2015)

2PP: L-NP 57.5% (up 1.5% since March 20-23, 2015) cf. ALP 42.5% (down 1.5%).

Primary vote: L-NP 49% (up 3.5%), ALP 29% (down 3.5%), Greens 12.5% (up 0.5%), Christian Democrats 3% (unchanged) and Independents/ Others 6.5% (down 0.5%).

Better Premier: Premier Mike Baird (Liberal) v Luke Foley (ALP):
Mr. Baird 67.5% (up 2.5%) cf. Mr. Foley 32.5% (down 2.5%); Lead to Mr. Baird 35% (up 5%).

New South Wales State Election is tomorrow, Saturday March 28, 2015.

Gary Morgan says:

“NSW Premier Mike Baird is set to win tomorrow’s NSW State Election comfortably despite the L-NP support falling substantially since the 2011 NSW Election. The L-NP 57.5% (down 6.7% since the 2011 NSW Election) easily leads the ALP 42.5% (up 6.7%) on a two-party preferred basis. Premier Mike Baird has also strengthened his personal rating with electors in recent days, now even more clearly preferred as ‘Better Premier’: Mike Baird 67.5% (up 2.5% in the last week) cf. Luke Foley 32.5% (down 2.5%).

“The ‘Presidential-style’ campaign run by the NSW Liberal Party – concentrating heavily on the popular Baird – Australia’s most popular political leader – appears to have worked. The L-NP’s lead has increased during recent weeks as electors begin to assess the two major parties and their leaders.

“Last Sunday’s Liberal Party campaign launch featuring current Prime Minister Tony Abbott, and former Liberal Prime Minister, and Liberal ‘political hero’, John Howard has given Baird a boost going into the final week.

“Labor Opposition Leader Luke Foley has attempted to ‘scare’ voters out of handing Baird his first election victory as leader by warning of increased electricity prices if the Coalition pass their controversial legislation leasing 49% of the ‘poles and wires’ for 99 year to private enterprise. Judging by the momentum in the final week of the campaign, the positive messages presented by Baird on the campaign trail have proved to be ‘the winner’ against Foley’s negativity.”


For the poll-watchers:

Electors were asked: “At this week's New South Wales State Election - which party will receive your first preference?” Electors were then asked: “Thinking of Premier Mike Baird and Opposition Leader Luke Foley. In your opinion, who would make the better Premier?

This special SMS Morgan Poll on State voting intention and preferred Premier and in New South Wales was conducted last night, March 26, 2015 with a cross-section of 1,086 New South Wales electors.


For further information:

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