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NSW Premier Mike Baird enjoys clear honeymoon lead; Voters in Queensland back Premier Palaszczuk after strong stance on Billy Gordon

The SMS Morgan Poll on State voting intention and preferred Premiers was conducted earlier this week on April 10-12, 2015 with a cross-section of 5,631 Australian electors including 1,308 New South Wales electors, 1,242 Victorian electors, 968 Queensland electors, 681 Western Australian electors, 719 South Australian electors and 358 Tasmanian electors.

The L-NP has increased its lead since the NSW State Election held on March 28, 2015 while new Labor Queensland Premier has received a definite boost in support after forcing North Queensland MP Billy Gordon out of the Queensland Government, a special SMS Morgan Poll on State voting intention conducted over the weekend (April 10-13, 2015) with a representative cross-section of 5,631 Australian electors shows.

NEW SOUTH WALES: L-NP would win the Election easily

2PP#: L-NP 54.5% (up 0.2% since the State Election, March 28 2015) cf. ALP 45.5% (down 0.2%).

Primary vote: L-NP 47.5% (up 1.9%), ALP 31% (down 3.1%), Greens 12.5% (up 2.2%), Christian Democrats 3.5% (up 0.3%) and Independents/ Others 5.5% (down 1.3%).

Better Premier: Premier Mike Baird (Liberal) v Luke Foley (ALP): Mr. Baird 68% (up 0.5% since March 26, 2015) cf. Mr. Foley 32% (down 0.5%); Lead to Mr. Baird 36% (up 1%).

New South Wales real unemployment is now 9.2% (down 0.2% since January – February 2015) and under-employment is 7.0% (up 0.1%). This means total New South Wales unemployment & under-employment is 16.2% (down 0.1%). (Interviewed February – March 2015).

Last New South Wales State Election was held on Saturday March 28, 2015


QUEENSLAND: ALP would win the Election

2PP: ALP 52.5% (up 3.5% since March 13-15, 2015) cf. LNP 47.5% (down 3.5%). Female electors: ALP 55% (up 3%) cf. LNP 45% (down 3%). Male electors: LNP 50.5% (down 5%) cf. ALP 49.5% (up 5%).

Primary vote electors: LNP 40.5% (down 3.5%), ALP 40% (up 3.5%), Greens 9.5% (unchanged), Katter’s Australian Party 3% (up 0.5%), Palmer United Party 2% (up 0.5%), Family First 1% (down 1%), Independents/ Others 4% (unchanged). Female electors: ALP 44% (up 4.5%), LNP 38.5% (down 2%), Greens 9% (down 0.5%), Katter’s Australian Party 2.5% (up 0.5%) Palmer United Party 1% (down 0.5%), Family First 1.5% (down 1%), Independents/ Others 3.5% (down 1%). Male electors: LNP 42.5% (down 5%), ALP 36% (up 2%), Greens 10% (up 0.5%), Katter’s Australian Party 3.5% (up 0.5%), Palmer United Party 3% (up 2%), Family First 1% (unchanged), Independents/ Others 4% (unchanged).

Better Premier: Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk (ALP) v Lawrence Springborg (LNP) electors: Ms. Palaszczuk 61.5% (up 0.5% since March 13-15, 2015) cf. Mr. Springborg 38.5% (down 0.5%); Lead to Ms Palaszczuk 23% (up 1%). Female electors: Ms. Palaszczuk 65.5% (down 0.5%) cf. Mr. Springborg 34.5% (up 0.5%). Male electors: Ms. Palaszczuk 57% (up 1%) cf. Mr. Springborg 43% (down 1%).

Queensland real unemployment is now 12.2% (up 1.5% since January – February 2015) and under-employment is 9.3% (up 0.1%). This means total Queensland unemployment & under-employment is 21.5% (up 1.6%). (Interviewed February - March 2015).

Last Queensland State Election was held on Saturday January 31, 2015.


VICTORIA: ALP would win an Election easily

2PP: ALP 54% (down 2% since March 13-15, 2015) cf. L-NP 46% (up 2%).

Primary vote: ALP 41% (down 2%), L-NP 40% (up 2%); Greens 11.5% (down  0.5%), Family First 2% (unchanged), Country Alliance 0.5% (unchanged) and Independents/ Others 5% (up 0.5%).

Better Premier: Premier Daniel Andrews (ALP) v Matthew Guy (Liberal): Mr. Andrews 59.5% (down 3%) cf. Mr. Guy 40.5% (up 3%); Lead to Mr. Andrews 19% (down 6%).

Victorian real unemployment is now 11.1% (up 0.9% since January - February 2015) and under-employment is 9.4% (down 0.6%). This means total Victorian unemployment & under-employment is 20.5% (up 0.3%). (Interviewed February - March 2015).

Last Victorian State Election was held on Saturday November 29, 2014.


WESTERN AUSTRALIA: Election would be too close to call

2PP: L-NP 50% (up 0.5% since March 13-15, 2015) cf. ALP 50% (down 0.5%).

Primary vote: Liberal 36.5% (up 1.5%), WA Nationals 6% (down 0.5%), ALP 35.5% (up 1.5%), Greens 13.5% (down 1%), Christians 1.5% (down 0.5%), Palmer United Party 1% (down 1%) and Independents/ Others 6% (unchanged).

Better Premier: Premier Colin Barnett (Liberal) v Mark McGowan (ALP): Mr. McGowan 59% (down 1.5%) cf. Mr. Barnett 41% (up 1.5%); Lead to Mr McGowan 18% (down 3%).

Western Australian real unemployment is now 11.4% (up 1.7% since December 2014 - February 2015) and under-employment is 6.4% (down 0.3%). This means total Western Australian unemployment & under-employment is 17.8% (up 1.4%). (Interviewed during January – March 2015).

Western Australia State Election is due to be held in March 2017.


SOUTH AUSTRALIA: Election too close to call

2PP: ALP 51% (down 2% since March 13-15, 2015) cf. L-NP 49% (up 2%).

Primary vote: ALP 36.5% (down 1%), L-NP 40% (up 2%), Greens 11% (down 1.5%), Family First 4.5% (down 0.5%), Palmer United Party 2% (up 0.5%) and Independents/ Others 6% (up 0.5%).

Better Premier: Premier Jay Weatherill (ALP) v Steve Marshall (Liberal): Mr. Weatherill 51% (down 0.5%) cf. Mr. Marshall 49% (up 0.5%); Lead to Mr Weatherill 2% (down 1%).

South Australian real unemployment is now 12.7% (up 1.3% since December 2014 – February 2015) and under-employment is 11.5% (down 0.1%). This means total South Australian unemployment & under-employment is 24.2% (up 1.2%). (Interviewed during January – March 2015).

South Australia State Election is due to be held in March 2018.


TASMANIA: ALP would win Election easily

2PP: ALP 56% (up 0.5% since March 13-15, 2015) cf. Liberals 44% (down 0.5%) – Estimate. Two-Party preferred vote is not applicable to the Tasmanian lower house which uses the Hare-Clark proportional voting system.

Primary vote: ALP 41.5% (up 0.5%), Liberals 39% (unchanged), Greens 15% (down 0.5%), Palmer United Party 0.5% (unchanged) and Independents/ Others 4% (unchanged).

Better Premier: Premier Will Hodgman (Liberal) v Bryan Green (ALP): Mr. Hodgman 61% (up 2.5%); Mr. Green 39% (down 2.5%); Lead to Mr Hodgman 22% (up 5%).

Tasmanian real unemployment is now 12.0% (up 3.3% since December 2014 – February 2015) and under-employment is 12.0% (down 3.7%). This means total Tasmanian unemployment & under-employment is 24.0% (down 0.4%). (Interviewed during January - March 2015).

Tasmanian State Election is due to be held in March 2018.


Gary Morgan, Executive Chairman, Roy Morgan Research, says:

“Today’s special SMS State Morgan Poll conducted around Australia earlier this week shows re-elected New South Wales Premier Mike Baird maintaining the clear lead he won at the recent New South Wales election: L-NP 54.5% (up 0.2% since the NSW State Election) cf. ALP 45.5% (down 0.2%). Baird has also strengthened his lead as ‘Better Premier’: Baird 68% (up 0.5%) cf. Opposition Leader Luke Foley 32% (down 0.5%).

“Further north in Queensland, new Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk has gained a clear increase in support after her strong stance on North Queensland Labor MP Billy Gordon. The ALP 52.5% (up 3.5% since March) cf. LNP 47.5% (down 2.5%) is now ahead for the first time since Palaszczuk’s surprise victory in Queensland’s January election.

“Despite Palaszczuk governing in a minority Government with only 44 seats in the 89 seat Queensland Parliament, Palaszczuk ‘threw’ Gordon out of the Queensland Labor Party for being dishonest with regards to his affairs and has pressured Gordon to resign from Parliament altogether. The strong leadership demonstrated by Palaszczuk is clearly supported by Queensland electors with Palaszczuk 61.5% (up 0.5%) maintaining a strong lead over LNP Leader Lawrence Springborg 38.5% (down 0.5%) as ‘Better Premier’.

“In Victoria the honeymoon continues for Premier Daniel Andrews and the Labor Government with the ALP 54% (down 2% since March) still well ahead of the L-NP 46% (up 2%) despite a softening in ALP support now more than 100 days into the term of the new Government. Premier Daniel Andrews maintains an even stronger lead as ‘Better Premier’: Andrews 59.5% (down 3%) cf. Opposition Leader Matthew Guy 40.5% (up 3%).

“The two major parties can’t be split In Western Australia with the L-NP 50% (up 0.5% since March) level with the ALP 50% (down 0.5%). Western Australian Premier Colin Barnett faces a fight to maintain Western Australia’s share of GST funding even at the low level of 37 cents in the dollar as the Independent Grants Commission has recommended this allocation be cut to only 30 cents in the dollar (Please see table below). This issue hasn’t helped Barnett’s personal support with Opposition Leader Mark McGowan clearly retaining his strong lead over Barnett as ‘Better Premier’: Mark McGowan 59% (down 1.5%) cf. Colin Barnett 41% (up 1.5%).

“In South Australia the Government has lost support over the past month but still maintains a narrow lead: ALP 51% (down 2% since March) cf. L-NP 49% (up 2%) on a two-party preferred basis. Further south in Tasmania the ALP also holds a clear lead, although from Opposition, with the ALP 56% (up 0.5%) cf. Liberals 44% (down 0.5%).”


For further information:

Contact

Office

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Gary Morgan:

+61 3 9224 5213

+61 411 129 094

Michele Levine:

+61 3 9224 5215

+61 411 129 093


For the poll-watchers:

Electors were asked: “If a State Election for NSW/ Victoria/ Queensland/ WA/ SA/ Tasmania were being held today — which party would receive your first preference?” Electors were then asked: “Thinking of (Premier) and (Opposition Leader). In your opinion, who would make the better Premier?

The SMS Morgan Poll on State voting intention and preferred Premiers was conducted earlier this week on April 10-12, 2015 with a cross-section of 5,631 Australian electors including 1,308 New South Wales electors, 1,242 Victorian electors, 968 Queensland electors, 681 Western Australian electors, 719 South Australian electors and 358 Tasmanian electors.

#As there is no two-party preferred result released by the New South Wales Electoral Commission for the NSW Election the estimate for the 2015 New South Wales Election is provided by ABC electoral analyst Antony Green showing the 2015 Queensland Election as L-NP (54.3%) cf. ALP (45.7%).


Allocation of GST Funding 2014-15.

State or Territory

Share if GST were distributed on an equal per-capita basis

2014–15 relativity
(cents in the
dollar received)

2014–15 actual GST share after adjusting by the relativity

Net recipients

NT

1.04%

566.061c

5.90%

TAS

2.20%

163.485c

3.60%

SA

7.14%

128.803c

9.20%

ACT

1.62%

123.600c

2.00%

QLD

20.30%

107.876c

21.90%

Net contributors

NSW

32.00%

97.5c

31.20%

VIC

24.92%

88.282c

22.00%

WA

11.16%

37.627c

4.20%











Source: http://www.aph.gov.au/about_parliament/parliamentary_departments/parliamentary_library/flagpost/2014/july/gst-relativities-where-is-revenue-raised