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L-NP support jumps following Mike Baird’s triumph in NSW Election

Finding No. 6165– This multi-mode Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted via face-to-face and SMS interviewing over the last two weekends, March 28/29 & April 3-6, 2015 with an Australia-wide cross-section of 3,063 Australian electors aged 18+, of all electors surveyed 2% did not name a party.

Federal L-NP support rose to 47% (up 3%) cf. ALP 53% (down 3%) on a two-party preferred basis following NSW Premier Mike Baird’s comfortable victory in the recent New South Wales Election.

This is the highest two-party preferred vote for the Coalition since October 2014, however if a Federal Election were held now the ALP would win according to this week’s Morgan Poll on voting intention conducted over the last two weekends, March 28/29 & April 3-6, 2015, with an Australia-wide cross-section of 3,063 Australian electors aged 18+.

Primary support for the L-NP rose to 40.5% (up 2.5%) now ahead of the ALP 36% (down 4%). Support for the other parties shows The Greens at 12.5% (up 1.5%), Palmer United Party (PUP) 1.5% (unchanged) while Independents/ Others were 9.5% (unchanged). Support for PUP is highest in Queensland (3.5%) and South Australia (3%) with little support in all other States.

Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is up to 94pts (up 3pts) this week with 44.5% (down 1.5%) of Australians saying Australia is ‘heading in the wrong direction’ and 38.5% (up 1.5%) saying Australia is ‘heading in the right direction’.

Analysis by Gender

Analysis by Gender shows women clearly support the ALP:  ALP 55.5% (down 4%) cf. L-NP 44.5% (up 4%) while support amongst men is evenly divided – ALP 50% (down 3%) cf. L-NP 50% (up 3%).

Analysis by Age group

Analysis by Age group shows the ALP still with its strongest advantage among younger Australians. 18-24yr olds heavily favour the ALP 65% cf. L-NP 35%; 25-34yr olds also heavily favour the ALP 59.5% cf. L-NP 40.5%; 35-49yr olds favour the ALP 55% cf. L-NP 45%; 50-64yr olds ALP 51% cf. L-NP 49% and those aged 65+ still heavily favour the L-NP 57.5% cf. ALP 42.5%.

Analysis by States

The ALP now has a two-party preferred lead in four Australian States. South Australia ALP 61.5% cf. L-NP 38.5%; Victoria ALP 56.5% cf. L-NP 43.5%; Western Australia: ALP 53.5% cf. L-NP 46.5% and Tasmania: ALP 51% cf. L-NP 49%. Queensland is equally divided: ALP 50% cf. L-NP 50% while in New South Wales: L-NP 50.5% leads the L- NP 49.5% - this is the first time the Federal L-NP has led in New South Wales since April 2014 – just before Treasurer Joe Hockey’s first Federal Budget.

The Morgan Poll surveys a larger sample (including people who only use a mobile phone) than any other public opinion poll. The Morgan Poll asks Minor Party supporters which way they will vote their preferences. *News Corp’s poll does not measure or reference the PUP vote!

The Morgan Poll allocated preferences based on how people say they will vote – allocating preferences by how electors voted at the last Federal Election, as used by News Corp’s poll* shows the ALP (53%) cf. L-NP (47%) – for trends see the Morgan Poll historic data table.

Gary Morgan says:

“The L-NP now at 47% (up 3%) has received a definite boost in support following Mike Baird’s clear victory at the recent New South Wales Election. However the Coalition still trails the ALP 53% (down 3%) on a two-party preferred basis ahead of Treasurer Joe Hockey’s second Federal Budget to be handed down in just over a month’s time.

“The increase in support for the L-NP has been driven by strong increases for the L-NP across Australia’s largest States in NSW, Victoria and Queensland. In New South Wales L-NP support has increased to 50.5% cf. ALP 49.5% – now ahead of the Opposition for the first time since April 2014 – before Hockey’s first Federal Budget.

“The comfortable victory for NSW Liberal Premier Mike Baird, despite advocating a very unpopular policy of leasing the New South Wales electricity assets for 99 years, has demonstrated that electors are willing to elect Governments even if they don’t like all their policies if electors ‘trust’ the party – and the leader in particular.

“Today’s decision by the RBA to leave interest rates unchanged at 2.25% is hardly surprising as the RBA understands that cutting interest rates now is not the best way to stimulate the Australian economy. Australia needs labour markets de-regulated to enable the 2.5million+ unemployed and under-employed Australians to get jobs.

“The Victorian Labor Government has shown what happens when Government puts up award wages (for the Easter holiday period) – most shops were closed, tourists were disappointed and thousands of workers received no pay.”

Electors were asked: “If an election for the House of Representatives were held today – which party will receive your first preference?”

Visit the Roy Morgan Online Store to browse our range of Voter Profiles by electorate, detailed Voting Intention Demographics Reports and Most important Political Issue Reports (all 150 electorates ranked by an issue).

Finding No. 6165– This multi-mode Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted via face-to-face and SMS interviewing over the last two weekends, March 28/29 & April 3-6, 2015 with an Australia-wide cross-section of 3,063 Australian electors aged 18+, of all electors surveyed 2% did not name a party.


For further information:

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Data Tables


Morgan Poll on Federal Voting Intention - April 7, 2015

Roy Morgan GCR

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

500

±4.5

±3.9

±2.7

±1.9

1,000

±3.2

±2.7

±1.9

±1.4

1,500

±2.6

±2.2

±1.5

±1.1

2,000

±2.2

±1.9

±1.3

±1.0