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ALP would still easily win Federal Election as Foreign Minister Julie Bishop arrives in Iran for talks on ISIS, asylum seekers and trade

Finding No. 6185– This multi-mode Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted via face-to-face and SMS interviewing over the last two weekends, April 11/12 & 18/19, 2015 with an Australia-wide cross-section of 3,314 Australian electors aged 18+, of all electors surveyed 2% (unchanged) did not name a party.
Federal L-NP support is unchanged at 47% cf. ALP 53% (unchanged) according to this week’s Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention conducted over the last two weekends, April 11/12 & 18/19, 2015, with an Australia-wide cross-section of 3,314 Australian electors aged 18+. If a Federal Election were held today the ALP would win easily.

Primary support for the L-NP fell to 38.5% (down 2%) just ahead of the ALP 38% (up 2%). Support for the other parties shows The Greens at 12% (down 0.5%), Katter’s Australian Party 1.5% (unchanged), Palmer United Party (PUP) 1% (down 0.5%) while Independents/ Others were 9% (up 1%).

Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is down to 88.5pts (down 5.5pts – the lowest since June 2014) this week with 45.5% (up 1%) of Australians saying Australia is ‘heading in the wrong direction’ and 34% (down 4.5%) saying Australia is ‘heading in the right direction’.

Analysis by Gender

Analysis by Gender shows a majority of both genders supporting the ALP. Women:  ALP 53.5% (down 2%) cf. L-NP 46.5% (up 2%). Men: ALP 52.5% (up 2.5%) cf. L-NP 47.5% (down 2.5%).

Analysis by Age group

Analysis by Age group shows the ALP still with its strongest advantage among younger Australians. 18-24yr olds heavily favour the ALP 61% cf. L-NP 39%; 25-34yr olds also heavily favour the ALP 61% cf. L-NP 39%; 35-49yr olds favour the ALP 55% cf. L-NP 45%; 50-64yr olds ALP 51.5% cf. L-NP 48.5% and those aged 65+ still heavily favour the L-NP 56.5% cf. ALP 43.5%.

Analysis by States

The ALP now has a two-party preferred lead in five Australian States. Tasmania: ALP 61% cf. L-NP 39%; South Australia: ALP 60.5% cf. L-NP 39.5%; Victoria: ALP 57% cf. L-NP 43%; Western Australia: ALP 52.5% cf. L-NP 47.5%; Queensland: ALP 52% cf. L-NP 48% while in New South Wales: L-NP leads for the second straight Morgan Poll following Mike Baird’s comprehensive NSW Election victory with the L-NP 51.5% cf. ALP 48.5%.

The Morgan Poll surveys a larger sample (including people who only use a mobile phone) than any other public opinion poll. The Morgan Poll asks Minor Party supporters which way they will vote their preferences. *News Corp’s poll does not measure or reference the PUP vote!

The Morgan Poll allocated preferences based on how people say they will vote – allocating preferences by how electors voted at the last Federal Election, as used by News Corp’s poll* shows the ALP (54%) cf. L-NP (46%) – for trends see the Morgan Poll historic data table.

Gary Morgan says:

“The ALP 53% (unchanged) has maintained a clear two-party preferred lead over the L-NP 47% (unchanged) as the Abbott Government threw the challenge to the States to advocate for reform to the GST if they wanted to receive greater funding in the future.

“Last week’s COAG meeting – the first since the re-election of Mike Baird in New South Wales last month, and also the first attended by new Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews (ALP) and new Queensland Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk (ALP) was dominated by the dispute between the States on how to carve up the GST revenue.

“At present three States are net contributors to GST (New South Wales, Victoria and Western Australia), whilst the other three States and both larger Territories are net beneficiaries of GST funding.

“Western Australian Premier Colin Barnett is feeling particularly hard done by as Western Australia’s share of GST revenue is set to be cut to only 30 cents in every dollar collected (down from a current level of 37 cents) – even as Western Australia faces a huge revenue shortfall due to the plunge in the iron ore price – down more than 50% over the last 12 months, and down nearly 75% since its peak in February 2011 ($191.70).

“Despite Premier Barnett’s concerns, he wasn’t able to convince his fellow Premiers to alter the GST funding formula. However, reports have emerged that the Federal Government is negotiating with Barnett to arrange a $600 million Commonwealth payment for WA to offset the large revenue falls in WA. At least for Barnett it appears his strident advocacy for Western Australia has paid a small ‘dividend’ for the Federal Liberal Party with L-NP two-party preferred support in Western Australia increasing to 47.5% (up 1%).

“Meanwhile, as Australia gets set to commemorate the 100th Anniversary of Anzac Day this weekend with Prime Minister Tony Abbott travelling to Gallipoli, Foreign Minister Julie Bishop has been the first high-ranking Australian official to travel to Iran in more than a decade. Bishop’s trip to Iran has included talks about the return of Iranian asylum seekers, the fight against the Islamic State (ISIS) in Iraq and also increasing trading opportunities between Australia and Iran in the face of a slowing Chinese economy.”

Electors were asked: “If an election for the House of Representatives were held today – which party will receive your first preference?”

Finding No. 6185– This multi-mode Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted via face-to-face and SMS interviewing over the last two weekends, April 11/12 & 18/19, 2015 with an Australia-wide cross-section of 3,314 Australian electors aged 18+, of all electors surveyed 2% (unchanged) did not name a party.




Allocation of GST Funding 2014-15.

State or Territory

Share if GST were distributed on an equal per-capita basis

2014–15 relativity
(cents in the
dollar received)

2014–15 actual GST share after adjusting by the relativity

Net recipients

NT

1.04%

566.061c

5.90%

TAS

2.20%

163.485c

3.60%

SA

7.14%

128.803c

9.20%

ACT

1.62%

123.600c

2.00%

QLD

20.30%

107.876c

21.90%

Net contributors

NSW

32.00%

97.5c

31.20%

VIC

24.92%

88.282c

22.00%

WA

11.16%

37.627c

4.20%

Source: http://www.aph.gov.au/about_parliament/parliamentary_departments/parliamentary_library/flagpost/2014/july/gst-relativities-where-is-revenue-raised


For further information:

Contact

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Gary Morgan:

+61 3 9224 5213

+61 411 129 094

Michele Levine:

+61 3 9224 5215

+61 411 129 093



Data Tables


Morgan Poll on Federal Voting Intention - April 20, 2015

Roy Morgan GCR

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

500

±4.5

±3.9

±2.7

±1.9

1,000

±3.2

±2.7

±1.9

±1.4

1,500

±2.6

±2.2

±1.5

±1.1

2,000

±2.2

±1.9

±1.3

±1.0