Back To Listing

National retains strong support despite NZ First victory at the Northland by-election

This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile telephone, with a NZ wide cross-section of 888 electors from April 6-19, 2015. Of all electors surveyed 4% (up 0.5%) didn’t name a party.

Today’s New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows a slight weakening for the National-led Government 48% (down 1.5% since March), but retaining a strong lead over a potential Labour/Greens Coalition 41% (down 1%). The beneficiaries of this loss of support was New Zealand First 8.5% (up 2.5%) following on from NZ First Leader Winston Peter's successful campaign at the recent Northland by-election according to today’s Roy Morgan New Zealand April poll.

Support for National has dropped to 45.5% (down 1%) and support for Prime Minister John Key’s Coalition partners the Maori Party has dropped to 1.5% (down 0.5%). Support for Key’s other two Coalition partners is unchanged: Act NZ 1% (unchanged) and United Future is still on 0% (unchanged).

Despite the rise in support for the Opposition Parties on the whole, Labour’s decision to advise Labour supporters to vote for NZ First Leader Winston Peters in the Northland by-election appears to have dented Labour support – now at 27.5% (down 3.5%). In contrast, support has increased strongly for both the Greens 13.5% (up 2.5%) and NZ First 8.5% (up 2.5%).

For the parties outside Parliament the Conservative Party of NZ is 1% (down 0.5%) while the Internet-Mana Party alliance is at 0% (unchanged) and support for Independent/ Others is 1.5% (up 0.5%).

If a National Election were held now the latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows that the result would be too close to call.

The latest NZ Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has fallen to 135pts (down 5.5pts). There are now 62% (down 2.5%) of NZ electors saying NZ is ‘heading in the right direction’ compared to 27% (up 3%) that say NZ is ‘heading in the wrong direction’. NZ Government Confidence is still substantially higher than in Australia – Australian Government Confidence last week was at 88.5pts.

Interview with Michele Levine, CEO, Roy Morgan Research by Alastair Thompson, Scoop Media

Michele Levine, CEO, Roy Morgan Research, says:

“Despite losing the recent Northland by-election, the National-led Government (48%, down 1.5% since March) retains a large lead over a potential Labour/ Greens Coalition 41% (down 1%) according to today’s Roy Morgan New Zealand April poll.

“New Zealand First Leader Winston Peters’ successful by-election campaign in Northland which saw Peters’ elected to Parliament as an electorate winner for the first time since losing the electorate of Tauranga at the 2005 New Zealand Election nearly a decade ago, no doubt helped boosted support for NZ First to 8.5% (up 2.5%) – the highest support for NZ First since last year’s New Zealand Election.”

Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?” This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile telephone, with a NZ wide cross-section of 888 electors from April 6-19, 2015. Of all electors surveyed 4% (up 0.5%) didn’t name a party.

Roy Morgan New Zealand Interactive Voting Charts

These interactive charts allow a deeper look at voting patterns in New Zealand over varying timeframes and provide election observers with the ability to pinpoint key turning points for the political parties.

View interactive New Zealand Election charts here.

Purchase the latest Roy Morgan New Zealand Electorate Profiles.



For further information:

Contact

Office

Mobile

Gary Morgan:

+61 3 9224 5213

+61 411 129 094

Michele Levine:

+61 3 9224 5215

+61 411 129 093



Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

500

±4.5

±3.9

±2.7

±1.9

1,000

±3.2

±2.7

±1.9

±1.4

1,500

±2.6

±2.2

±1.5

±1.1

2,000

±2.2

±1.9

±1.3

±1.0