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Roy Morgan Research unemployment estimate (10.8%) is ‘closer to reality’ than the ABS (6.1%) according to a majority of Australians

This special telephone Morgan Poll was conducted over the last three nights, April 14-16, 2014, with an Australia-wide cross-section of 598 Australians aged 14+.

A majority of Australians 60% (up 5% since June 2014) say the Roy Morgan March unemployment estimate (10.8%) is ‘closer to reality’ than the far lower official ABS March unemployment number (6.1%)*; 29% (down 3%) believe the ABS number while a further 11% (down 2%) can’t say according to a special telephone Morgan Poll conducted over the last three nights, April 14-16, 2015.

Analysis by Gender & Age

Analysis by gender shows men 61% (up a large 13%) are slightly more likely than women 59% (down 3%) to say the Roy Morgan unemployment figure is ‘closer to reality’. In addition, more men 31% (down 9%) than women 27% (up 2%) also say the ABS unemployment figure is ‘closer to reality’ while only 8% (down 4%) of men say they ‘can’t say’ compared to 14% (up 1%).

Analysis by age groups shows people of all ages are more likely to believe the Roy Morgan figures - 62% of 14-24yr olds believe the Roy Morgan unemployment figure is ‘closer to reality’, along with 59% of 25-34yr olds, 58% of 35-49yr olds, 63% of 50-64yr olds and 57% of 65+yr olds.

Analysis by Voting Intention

Analysis by voting intention shows a clear difference between supporters of the two major parties – ALP supporters are far more likely to say the Roy Morgan unemployment estimate is ‘closer to reality’ than L-NP supporters, although majorities of supporters of both major parties indicate they are more likely to believe the Roy Morgan unemployment estimate than the ABS unemployment estimate.

Now 68% (up 6%) of ALP supporters say the Roy Morgan unemployment estimate is ‘closer to reality’ compared to 23% (down 5%) that believe the ABS unemployment estimate while 52% (up 13%) of L-NP supporters say the Roy Morgan unemployment estimate is ‘closer to reality’ compared to 37% (down 9%) that say the ABS unemployment estimate is ‘closer to reality’. In addition Greens supporters also clearly believe the Roy Morgan unemployment estimate 60% (down 11%) ahead of the ABS estimate 22% (up 2%).

Gary Morgan says:

“An increasing majority of Australians 60% (up 5% since June 2014) say the Roy Morgan unemployment estimate (10.8% in March – 1,368,000) is ‘closer to reality’ compared to 29% (down 3%) that say the official ABS unemployment estimate (6.1% in March) is ‘closer to reality’. The ABS does not release a monthly estimate of under-employed (Roy Morgan estimates there are 976,000 under-employed in Australia - 7.7%)

“This is the third time Roy Morgan has asked this question, and the overall results have shown a majority each time say the Roy Morgan unemployment estimate is ‘closer to reality’ – 58% of Australians in June 2013, 55% in June 2014 and 60% this week.

"It is clear the Abbott Government needs to direct the ABS to more accurately measure Australian unemployment and measure and release under-employment on a monthly basis - which is now available in the USA.

 “At next month’s Federal Budget, the Abbott Government must implement changes to Australia’s industrial relations laws that will encourage employers to hire from the vast pool (over 2.3 million Australians in March) of unemployed and under-employed Australians. Failure to deal with Australia’s real level of unemployment before next year’s Federal Election will ‘doom’ the Abbott Government to being a ‘one-term disappointment’ like the Coalition Governments in Victorian and Queensland.”

This special telephone Morgan Poll was conducted over the last three nights, April 14-16, 2014, with an Australia-wide cross-section of 598 Australians aged 14+.

Australians were asked: “The ABS Unemployment rate in March was 6.1%. The Roy Morgan estimate for March was 10.8%. Which do you believe is closer to reality?” *Before the ABS March unemployment estimate was released on Thursday April 16, this question referenced the ABS February unemployment estimate of 6.3%.

Interviewing Dates

Electors

June
2013

June
2014

April 14-16,
2015

L-NP

ALP

Greens

Ind./Other#

Can’t say#

Roy Morgan

58

55

60

52

68

60

67

65

ABS

21

33

29

37

23

22

22

19

Can’t say

21

12

11

11

9

18

11

16

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

#Figures for some these demographics must be treated with caution as there are under 50 interviews.

Telephone Morgan Poll

Australians 14+

Gender

Age

June
2013

June
2014

April 14-16,
2015

Men

Women

14-24

25-34

35-49

50-64

65+

Roy Morgan

58

55

60

61

59

62

59

58

63

57

ABS

21

32

29

31

27

33

34

31

23

26

Can’t say

21

13

11

8

14

5

7

11

14

17

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100


Telephone Morgan Poll

Australians 14+

State

June
2013

June
2014

April 14-16,
2015

NSW

VIC

QLD

WA

SA

TAS#

Roy Morgan

58

55

60

51

64

69

62

56

71

ABS

21

32

29

38

23

23

25

32

17

Can’t say

21

13

11

11

13

8

13

12

12

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

*In June 2013 the Roy Morgan unemployment figure was 9.7% and the ABS unemployment figure was 5.7%. In June 2014 the Roy Morgan unemployment figure was 10.6% and the ABS unemployment figure was 6.0%.


Unemployment Data Tables

Roy Morgan Research Employment Estimates (2001-2015)

Roy Morgan Research Unemployment & Under-employment Estimates (2007-2015)

Roy Morgan Research vs ABS Employment Estimates (1992-2015)

ABS Employment Estimates (1992-2015)

Roy Morgan March Unemployment Estimate - 10.8%

Roy Morgan March Unemployment Estimate - 10.8%

Roy Morgan March Unemployment Estimate - 10.8%


ROY MORGAN MEASURES REAL UNEMPLOYMENT IN AUSTRALIA

NOT THE ‘PERCEPTION’ OF UNEMPLOYMENT – JUNE 8, 2012

http://www.roymorgan.com/~/media/Files/Papers/2012/20120603.pdf

The Roy Morgan Unemployment estimate is obtained by surveying an Australia-wide cross section by face-to-face interviews. A person is classified as unemployed if they are looking for work, no matter when.

The results are not seasonally adjusted and provide an accurate measure of monthly unemployment estimates in Australia.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics Unemployment estimates are obtained by mostly telephone interviews. Households selected for the ABS Survey are interviewed each month for eight months, with one-eighth of the sample being replaced each month. The first interview is conducted face-to-face. Subsequent interviews are then conducted by telephone.

The ABS classifies a person as unemployed if, when surveyed, they have been actively looking for work in the four weeks up to the end of the reference week and if they were available for work in the reference week.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics Unemployment estimates are also seasonally adjusted.

For these reasons the Australian Bureau of Statistics Unemployment estimates are different from the Roy Morgan Unemployment estimate. Gary Morgan's concerns regarding the ABS Unemployment estimate is clearly outlined in his letter to the Australian Financial Review, which was not published.


For further information:

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