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ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Firms Ahead of Budget

Data collected last weekend (Saturday and Sunday), based on 1,000 face-to-face interviews.

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rebounded last week by 2.8% to 111.8, reversing most of the cumulative 3.1% fall over the previous three weeks. Despite the bounce, levels remain below average and confidence is still trending down.

The improvement last week was fairly broad based, with particular strength in expectations of the economic outlook over the next year (+8.6%). However, levels of this index remain subdued. Confidence around buying a ‘major household item’ rose for the third consecutive week, reaching the highest level since January.

The only sub-index to fall was household finances in the year ahead (-2.7%), although this index remains above its average level.

ANZ Chief Economist Warren Hogan commented:

“A good jobs report for March, continued strength in housing markets and the Government’s positioning of the upcoming Budget appear to have helped support confidence in the past week. Despite the solid bounce in confidence over this past week, confidence remains on the downtrend trajectory that has been in place since the beginning of 2015. The real test will be over the next few weeks as Australians digest the 2015 Budget and the Government’s new fiscal strategy. That said, consumers appear much more comfortable with the Government’s messaging around Australia’s fiscal position than last year when we saw a more than 10% fall in confidence in the weeks ahead of the release of the Budget.

"For monetary policy, soft consumer confidence presents a conundrum. It signals the economy remains sub-par and thus argues for more interest rate reductions. At the same time, consumer caution will put a question mark over the effectiveness of monetary policy. In the current environment Australians seem less inclined to respond to lower interest rates with higher borrowing and spending. In our view, the fall in the terms of trade since late last year, a still elevated currency and an expectation of a gradual drift up in unemployment points to the need for a further 25bp reduction in the RBA cash rate. Beyond that, the interplay of domestic growth momentum and the degree to which business investment responds to the lower currency will determine the extent of any further easing of monetary policy.”

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating - April 28, 2015 - 111.8

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating - April 28, 2015 - 111.8

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating - April 28, 2015 - 111.8

Click to view the PDF of the ANZ-Roy Morgan Weekly Consumer Confidence Release.


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Related Research Reports

The latest Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Monthly Report is available on the Roy Morgan Online Store. It provides demographic breakdowns for Age, Sex, State, Region (Capital Cities/ Country), Generations, Lifecycle, Socio-Economic Scale, Work Status, Occupation, Home Ownership, Voting Intention, Roy Morgan Value Segments and more.

You can also view our monitor of Monthly Australian Unemployment & Under-employment Estimates.