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L-NP vote virtually unchanged as Abbott Government prepares for second Federal Budget

Finding No. 6222– This multi-mode Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted via face-to-face and SMS interviewing over the last two weekends, April 25/26 & May 2/3, 2015 with an Australia-wide cross-section of 3,035 Australian electors aged 18+, of all electors surveyed 2% (unchanged) did not name a party.
Federal L-NP support is down slightly (0.5%) to 46.5% cf. ALP 53.5% (up 0.5%) according to this week’s Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention conducted over the last two weekends, April 25/26 & May 2/3, 2015, with an Australia-wide cross-section of 3,035 Australian electors aged 18+. If a Federal Election were held today the ALP would win easily.

Primary support for the L-NP rose to 40% (up 1.5%) ahead of the ALP 37.5% (down 0.5%). Support for the other parties shows The Greens at 11.5% (down 0.5%), Palmer United Party (PUP) 1.5% (up 0.5%), Katter’s Australian Party 1% (down 0.5%), while Independents/ Others were 8.5% (down 0.5%).

Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is up to 89pts (up 0.5pts) this week with 45% (down 0.5%) of Australians saying Australia is ‘heading in the wrong direction’ and 34% (unchanged) saying Australia is ‘heading in the right direction’.

Analysis by Gender

Analysis by Gender shows a large majority of women supporting the ALP. Women:  ALP 56% (up 2.5%) cf. L-NP 44% (down 2.5%) while men are fairly evenly split between the two major parties. Men: ALP 50.5% (down 2%) cf. L-NP 49.5% (up 2%).

Analysis by Age group

Analysis by Age group shows the ALP still with its strongest advantage among younger Australians. 18-24yr olds heavily favour the ALP 65% cf. L-NP 35%; 25-34yr olds also heavily favour the ALP 59.5% cf. L-NP 40.5%; 35-49yr olds favour the ALP 58.5% cf. L-NP 41.5%; 50-64yr olds ALP 51% cf. L-NP 49% and those aged 65+ still heavily favour the L-NP 60% cf. ALP 40%.

Analysis by States

The ALP now has a two-party preferred lead in four Australian States. South Australia: ALP 58.5% cf. L-NP 41.5%; Victoria: ALP 57% cf. L-NP 43%; Tasmania: ALP 55% cf. L-NP 45%; New South Wales: ALP 51.5% cf. L-NP 48.5%. However, the L-NP leads in the two largest mining States of Queensland: LNP 50.5% cf. ALP 49.5% and in Western Australia the L-NP 51% cf. ALP 49%.

The Morgan Poll surveys a larger sample (including people who only use a mobile phone) than any other public opinion poll. The Morgan Poll asks Minor Party supporters which way they will vote their preferences. *News Corp’s poll does not measure or reference the PUP vote!

The Morgan Poll allocated preferences based on how people say they will vote – allocating preferences by how electors voted at the last Federal Election, as used by News Corp’s poll* shows the ALP (53%) cf. L-NP (47%) – for trends see the Morgan Poll historic data table.

Gary Morgan says:

“The ALP 53.5% cf. L-NP 46.5% has maintained a clear two-party preferred lead in the week Australians commemorated the 100th Anniversary of the ANZAC landing at Gallipoli and also the decision by the Indonesian Government to execute convicted Australian drug-traffickers Andrew Chan and Myuran Sukumaran.

“The overall picture is little changed from earlier in April at the half-way point of the Abbott Government and as Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine talked about in the Roy Morgan State of the Nation – Focus on Politics last week the Abbott Government has faced a tough first 18 months in Government – although this is nothing unusual when compared to previous Governments.

“The real task for Prime Minister Tony Abbott and the Coalition is to set out some clear policy goals for the remainder of the Abbott Government’s term in office with the key indicators being increases in Consumer Confidence and Business Confidence – and lowering Australia’s high level of unemployment and under-employment (now at 2.3 million Australians (18.5%)) according to the latest Roy Morgan employment estimates.

“Next week’s Federal Budget presents the Government with the first chance to introduce policies to tackle these key indicators. Comprehensive reform of Australia’s IR system to allow employers greater flexibility to hire workers is a key plank of reducing Australia’s high level of unemployment and under-employment – which will in turn boost both Consumer Confidence and Business Confidence.

“For the Government to stand any chance of re-election to a second term next year they can’t afford a repeat of last year’s disastrous Budget which had a strong negative impact on Roy Morgan Business Confidence (which fell from 120.9 in April 2014 to 108.1 in June 2014 – a fall of 12.8pts (-10.6%)), ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence  (116.1 on April 19/20, 2014 falling to a low of 99.3 on May 24/25, 2014 – a decline of 16.8pts (-14.5%) in a month) and also the Government’s support (L-NP 48% cf. ALP 52% on April 12/13 & 19/20, 2014 fell to a low of L-NP 39.5% cf. ALP 60.5% on June 7/8, 2014).”


Electors were asked: “If an election for the House of Representatives were held today – which party will receive your first preference?”

Finding No. 6222– This multi-mode Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted via face-to-face and SMS interviewing over the last two weekends, April 25/26 & May 2/3, 2015 with an Australia-wide cross-section of 3,035 Australian electors aged 18+, of all electors surveyed 2% (unchanged) did not name a party.

For further information:

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Gary Morgan:

+61 3 9224 5213

+61 411 129 094

Michele Levine:

+61 3 9224 5215

+61 411 129 093



Data Tables


Morgan Poll on Federal Voting Intention - May 4, 2015

Roy Morgan GCR

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

500

±4.5

±3.9

±2.7

±1.9

1,000

±3.2

±2.7

±1.9

±1.4

1,500

±2.6

±2.2

±1.5

±1.1

2,000

±2.2

±1.9

±1.3

±1.0