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L-NP gets ‘Budget boost’ – now highest in over a year (February 2014)

Finding No. 6239 – This multi-mode Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted via face-to-face and SMS interviewing last weekend, May 16/17, 2015 with an Australia-wide cross-section of 2,439 Australian electors aged 18+, of all electors surveyed 1% (down 1%) did not name a party. 
Federal L-NP support is up 2.5% since April 25/26 & May 2/3, 2015 to 49% cf. ALP 51% (down 2.5%) according to this week’s Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention following last week’s Federal Budget and conducted over the weekend, May 16/17, 2015, with an Australia-wide cross-section of 2,439 Australian electors. If a Federal Election were held today it would be too close to call.

Primary support for the L-NP rose to 41.5% (up 1.5%) ahead of the ALP 35.5% (down 2%). Support for the other parties shows the Greens at 12.5% (up 1%), Palmer United Party (PUP) 1.5% (unchanged), Katter’s Australian Party 1.5% (up 0.5%), while Independents/ Others were 7.5% (down 1%).

Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has jumped to 99.5pts (up 10.5pts) this week with 42% (down 3%) of Australians saying Australia is ‘heading in the wrong direction’ and 41.5% (up 7.5%) saying Australia is ‘heading in the right direction’ – this is the highest Government Confidence since early November 2014.

Analysis by Gender

Analysis by Gender still shows a majority of women supporting the ALP. Women: ALP 54.5% (down 1.5%) cf. L-NP 45.5% (up 1.5%) while a majority of men now support the L-NP. Men: L-NP 52.5% (up 2%) cf. ALP 47.5% (down 2%).

Analysis by Age group

Analysis by Age group shows the ALP still with its strongest advantage among younger Australians. 18-24yr olds heavily favour the ALP 71% cf. L-NP 29%; 25-34yr olds also heavily favour the ALP 60.5% cf. L-NP 39.5%; 35-49yr olds marginally favour the ALP 52.5% cf. L-NP 47.5%. Now 50-64yr olds favour the L-NP 54.5% cf. ALP 45.5% and those aged 65+, L-NP 60.5% cf. ALP 39.5% heavily favour the L-NP.

Analysis by States

The ALP now has a two-party preferred lead in only two Australian States. Victoria: ALP 59% cf. L-NP 41% and Tasmania: ALP 52% cf. L-NP 48%. Now Queensland: LNP 54.5% cf. ALP 45.5% South Australia: L-NP 53.5% cf. ALP 46.5%; Western Australia the L-NP 53.5% cf. ALP 46.5% and New South Wales: L-NP 53% cf. ALP 47% favour the L-NP.

The Morgan Poll surveys a larger sample (including people who only use a mobile phone) than any other public opinion poll. The Morgan Poll asks Minor Party supporters which way they will vote their preferences. *News Corp’s poll does not measure or reference the PUP vote!

The Morgan Poll allocated preferences based on how people say they will vote – allocating preferences by how electors voted at the last Federal Election, as used by News Corp’s poll* shows the ALP (51.5%) cf. L-NP (48.5%) – for trends see the Morgan Poll historic data table.

Gary Morgan says:

“The Coalition Government has received a clear boost after last week’s Federal Budget with the L-NP rising to 49% (up 2.5%) cf. ALP 51% (down 2.5%) on a two-party preferred basis – the best performance for the Government for over a year since February 2014.

“In contrast to last year’s Federal Budget which led to an immediate fall in Government support, the Government approached this year’s Budget with the aim of finding ways to promote economic growth – through tax concessions to small businesses for instance – rather than focusing on cutting Government spending and the deficit as they did a year ago.

“This approach has certainly won the electorate’s approval – L-NP primary support (41.5%) is at its highest since December 2013 just after the last Federal Election. Unfortunately the Government’s plans to grow the economy and reduce the Federal Budget deficit  depend on their forecasts of a higher rate of GDP growth. This is unlikely because the Abbott Government is relying on the ‘understated’ unemployment figures provided by the ABS when the real level of unemployment and under-employment in Australia is much higher – nearly 2.5 million Australians (19.4% of the workforce) according to the latest Roy Morgan April employment estimates.

“The recent United Kingdom election result provides a stark ‘reality check’ for political parties in Australia. If political parties fail to present a coherent message about how they will create economic growth – and jobs for their citizens – the electorate will not reward them with a change of Government. The UK Labour Party led by Ed Miliband comprehensively lost the UK election because they failed to provide a credible alternative to the incumbent Government of David Cameron (Conservative).

“Miliband’s decision in the final week of the campaign to use a ‘stunt’ – that has been dubbed the ‘Ed Stone’ – an 8 foot 6 inch slab of limestone – to introduce the Labour Party’s policies – including raising taxes and increasing spending, fell flat because the UK electorate rightly judged that they were being treated like ‘fools’.

“The failure of polling companies in the UK was two-fold, they failed to pick up the late swing to the Cameron Government following Miliband’s ‘stunt’ (electors do change their minds) and undecided electors who comprehensively supported David Cameron in the final days of the campaign.

“Opposition Leader Bill Shorten risks making the same mistake as Miliband as Shorten is yet to provide a coherent vision of what he will do as Prime Minister and what his plans are to grow the economy and provide jobs for Australians that need them. The nearly 2.5 million Australians (19.4% of the workforce) looking for work or looking for more work – the unemployed and under-employed Australians – not more Government spending based on higher taxes, or ‘stunts’, like that performed by failed UK Opposition Labour Leader Ed Miliband.”

Electors were asked: “If an election for the House of Representatives were held today – which party will receive your first preference?”

Visit the Roy Morgan Online Store to browse our range of Voter Profiles by electorate, detailed Voting Intention Demographics Reports and Most important Political Issue Reports (all 150 electorates ranked by an issue).

Finding No. 6239– This multi-mode Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted via face-to-face and SMS interviewing last weekend, May 16/17, 2015 with an Australia-wide cross-section of 2,439 Australian electors aged 18+, of all electors surveyed 1% (down 1%) did not name a party.

For further information:

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Data Tables


Morgan Poll on Federal Voting Intention - May 18, 2015

Roy Morgan GCR

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

500

±4.5

±3.9

±2.7

±1.9

1,000

±3.2

±2.7

±1.9

±1.4

1,500

±2.6

±2.2

±1.5

±1.1

2,000

±2.2

±1.9

±1.3

±1.0