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ANZ-Roy Morgan China Consumer Confidence Fell to Record Low
May 20 2015
- Finding No.
Consumer Confidence Press Release
The ANZ-Roy Morgan China Consumer Confidence survey elicits respondents' expectations of inflation and prices. Data in May was collected from a sample of 1,000 Chinese aged 14+ (12,000 per annum) by telephone. The survey is conducted in metropolitan and outer urban areas - not only are 1st, 2nd and 3rd Tier cities included, but Tier 4 cities are also surveyed every month. The robust, representative sample is stratified geographically, with quotas controlled by gender and age.
ANZ-Roy Morgan China Consumer Confidence Index fell by 0.5pt to 144.0 in May, reaching a new record low.
ANZ’s Chief Economist for Greater China Li-Gang Liu said:
- In terms of personal finances, 42.6% (down 3.4ppts from April) of respondents said that their families are ‘better off’ financially in May compared with the same time last year. Meanwhile, 10.4% (down 4.1ppts) said that they are ‘worse off’. On the outlook for personal financial situation, 59.7% (up 0.2ppt) expect their families to be ‘better off’ next year, compared with 8.9% (up 4.5ppts) who expect conditions to be ‘worse off’.
- On economic conditions, respondent who expect China to have ‘good times’ next year fell to 58.1% (down 5.0ppts), while respondents who expect economic ‘bad times rose to a new record high of 11.8% (up 0.6ppt). On longer-term economic performance, 67.3% (down 1.2ppts) expect China to have ‘good times’ and 10.6% (down 3.7ppts) said that there will be ‘bad times’.
- In May, respondents who said that it is a ‘good time’ to buy major items now edged up to 39.9% (up 0.3ppt), while respondents who said that it is a ‘bad time’ to do so fell to 6.1% (down 3.6ppts).
- Inflation expectations rebounded to 4.20% (up 0.6ppt) in May.
“ANZ-Roy Morgan China Consumer Confidence fell to a record low in May, reflecting the continued sluggishness in the economy. The May result was highlighted by waning consumer confidence on the short-term outlook, as fewer respondents expect good times over the next twelve months both in terms of personal financial conditions and economic conditions. The relevant sub-indices fell by 4.3pts and 5.6pts, respectively.
"The intensified easing measures by the authorities since Q4 last year have not yet lifted the economic momentum. Real activity data remained lukewarm in April. Meanwhile, the monetary data showed that loan extension was much weaker than expected, suggesting that commercial banks remain concerned about credit risks in the real sector.
"Thus, more pro-growth policies could be expected soon. We expect the People’s Bank of China to cut the lending rate by another 25bps in Q2 to lower the cost of funds for corporates. The subdued M2 growth in April has also increased the likelihood of another RRR cut.”
Click to view the latest ANZ-Roy Morgan China Consumer Confidence Release PDF - May 2015.
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