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ANZ-Roy Morgan Thailand Consumer Confidence Slipped to 1-Year Low
May 27 2015
- Finding No.
Consumer Confidence Press Release
The monthly ANZ-Roy Morgan Thailand Consumer Confidence Index is based on 1,000 telephone interviews conducted throughout Thailand. Men and women aged 14 and over were randomly selected during the month of May 2015.
ANZ-Roy Morgan Thailand Consumer Confidence has fallen 3.2pts to 111.2 in May – a fourth straight month of decline. Consumer Confidence is now just below its long-term average of 112.6. Driving this month’s fall in ANZ-Roy Morgan Thailand Consumer Confidence was a decline in how Thai respondents view their families’ financial situations in the short and long term as well as in buying major household items.
ANZ Economist ASEAN & Pacific, Weiwen Ng said:
- In terms of personal finances now 27% (down 3ppts) of respondents said their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year compared to 38% (down 1ppt), that said their families are ‘worse off’ financially than a year ago.
- Now 48% (down 5ppts) of respondents said they expect their families to be ‘better off’ financially in a year’s time compared to 14% (down 2ppts) who expect to be ‘worse off’ financially.
- Thinking of economic conditions in Thailand going forward, just under half of respondents, 48% (down 2ppts), expect Thailand to have ‘good times’ financially over the next 12 months (the lowest for this indicator in exactly a year since the change of Government in May 2014) compared to 28% (down 3ppts) that expect ‘bad times’ financially.
- A large majority of respondents 67% (down 3ppts) of respondents expect Thailand to have ‘good times’ during the next five years and only 9% (unchanged) expect ‘bad times’ for Thailand (the equal highest for this indicator in exactly a year since the change of Government in May 2014).
- Now only 20% (down 6ppts) of respondents say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items (the lowest for this indicator for nearly a year since June 2014) compared to an increasing majority of 65% (up 3ppts) of respondents that say now is a ‘bad time to buy’ major household items (the highest for this indicator for nearly a year since June 2014).
“The key risk that we flagged last month on ANZ-Roy Morgan Thailand Consumer Confidence drifting lower has materialised. Consumer confidence continued to fall for the fourth straight month as the economic recovery has failed to broaden beyond the tourism sector. To us, the recent disinflation downdraft has yet to translate into a pickup in household spending. Low commodity prices have weighed on farmers’ income. Exports have also been weighed down by the strength of the baht. This dynamic is reflected in the wariness of households to commit to purchasing major household items.
"We are apprehensive on the notion that interest rate relief possibly coming to the aid of confidence anytime soon. This in spite of our view of another 25bps cut in the policy rate by the end of this year to 1.25% which would be the terminal rate. Further monetary easing takes into account the absence of strong recovery and elevated real rates. We noted a distinct shift in Bank of Thailand’s recent monetary policy stance, as they linked the monetary policy decision to the strength of the baht. Concerns on financial sector imbalances are taking a back seat for now. Still, we have reservations on the efficacy of the rate cuts on growth. Monetary easing can only mitigate the delay in fiscal stimulus, but is no panacea. Fiscal therapy needs to come through stronger.”
Click to view the latest ANZ-Roy Morgan Thailand Consumer Confidence Release PDF - May 2015.
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