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Honeymoons continue for NSW Premier Baird & Victorian Premier Andrews while the honeymoon is over for Queensland Premier Palaszczuk

The SMS Morgan Poll on State voting intention and preferred Premiers was conducted on the week-end of May 22-24, 2015 with a cross-section of 5,389 Australian electors including 1,290 New South Wales electors, 1,164 Victorian electors, 959 Queensland electors, 616 Western Australian electors, 677 South Australian electors and 338 Tasmanian electors.

The NSW L-NP has again increased its lead since the NSW State Election with the L-NP 58.5% cf. ALP 41.5% in Australia’s biggest State while Labor has increased its lead in Victoria: ALP 56.5% cf. L-NP 43.5% according to an SMS Morgan Poll on State voting intention conducted over the weekend (May 22-24, 2015) with a representative cross-section of 5,389 Australian electors.

NEW SOUTH WALES: L-NP would win an Election easily

2PP: L-NP 58.5% (up 4% since April 10-13, 2015) cf. ALP 41.5% (down 4%).

Primary vote: L-NP 53.5% (up 6%), ALP 29.5% (down 1.5%), Greens 12% (down 0.5%), Christian Democrats 1% (down 2.5%) and Independents/ Others 4% (down 1.5%).

Better Premier: Premier Mike Baird (Liberal) v Luke Foley (ALP):
Mr. Baird 70.5% (up 2.5% since April 10-13, 2015) cf. Mr. Foley 29.5% (down 2.5%);
Lead to Mr. Baird 41% (up 5%).

New South Wales real unemployment is now 10% (up 0.8% since February – March 2015) and under-employment is 7.2% (up 0.2%). This means total New South Wales unemployment & under-employment is 17.2% (up 1%). (Interviewed March - April 2015).

Last New South Wales State Election was held on Saturday March 28, 2015

 

VICTORIA: ALP would win an Election easily

2PP: ALP 56.5% (up 2.5% since April 10-13, 2015) cf. L-NP 43.5% (down 2.5%).

Primary vote: ALP 43.5% (up 2.5%), L-NP 38.5% (down 1.5%); Greens 12.5% (up 1%), Family First 1.5% (down 0.5%), Country Alliance 0.5% (unchanged) and Independents/ Others 3.5% (down 1.5%).

Better Premier: Premier Daniel Andrews (ALP) v Matthew Guy (Liberal): Mr. Andrews 63% (up 3.5%) cf. Mr. Guy 37% (down 3.5%); Lead to Mr. Andrews 26% (up 7%).

Victorian real unemployment is now 10.2% (down 0.9% since February - March 2015) and under-employment is 9.7% (up 0.3%). This means total Victorian unemployment & under-employment is 19.9% (down 0.6%). (Interviewed March – April 2015).

Last Victorian State Election was held on Saturday November 29, 2014.


QUEENSLAND: Election would be too close to call

2PP: LNP 52% (up 4.5% since April 10-13, 2015) cf. ALP 48% (down 4.5%).  Female electors: ALP 51% (down 4%) cf. LNP 49% (up 4%). Male electors: LNP 55% (up 4.5%) cf. ALP 45% (down 4.5%).

Primary vote electors: LNP 44% (up 3.5%), ALP 34% (down 6%), Greens 11% (up 1.5%), Katter’s Australian Party 3% (unchanged), Family First 1% (unchanged), Independents/ Others 7% (up 1%). Female electors: LNP 41% (up 2.5%), ALP 36% (down 8%), Greens 13% (up 4%), Katter’s Australian Party 1.5% (down 1%), Family First 1.5% (unchanged), Independents/ Others 7% (up 2.5%). Male electors: LNP 47% (up 4.5%), ALP 32.5% (down 3.5%), Greens 9% (down 1%), Katter’s Australian Party 4.5% (up 1%), Family First 1% (unchanged), Independents/ Others 6% (down 1%).

Better Premier: Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk (ALP) v Lawrence Springborg (LNP) electors:
Ms. Palaszczuk 61.5% (unchanged since April 10-13, 2015) cf. Mr. Springborg 38.5% (unchanged); Lead to Ms Palaszczuk 23% (unchanged). Female electors: Ms. Palaszczuk 69% (up 3.5%) cf. Mr. Springborg 31% (down 3.5%). Male electors: Ms. Palaszczuk 53.5% (down 3.5%) cf. Mr. Springborg 46.5% (up 3.5%).

Queensland real unemployment is now 12.0% (down 0.2% since February – March 2015) and under-employment is 9.0% (down 0.3%). This means total Queensland unemployment & under-employment is 21.0% (down 0.5%). (Interviewed March – April 2015).

Last Queensland State Election was held on Saturday January 31, 2015.


WESTERN AUSTRALIA: Election would be too close to call

2PP: ALP 51% (up 1% since April 10-13, 2015) cf. L-NP 49% (down 1%).

Primary vote: ALP 36% (up 0.5%), Liberal 34.5% (down 2%), WA Nationals 7.5% (up 1.5%), Greens 14% (up 0.5%), Christians 1.5% (unchanged), and Independents/ Others 6.5% (down 0.5%).

Better Premier: Premier Colin Barnett (Liberal) v Mark McGowan (ALP): Mr. McGowan 58% (down 1%) cf. Mr. Barnett 42% (up 1%); Lead to Mr McGowan 16% (down 2%).

Western Australian real unemployment is now 11.4% (unchanged since January - March 2015) and under-employment is 6.1% (down 0.3%). This means total Western Australian unemployment & under-employment is 17.5% (down 0.3%). (Interviewed during February – April 2015).

Western Australia State Election is due to be held in March 2017.

 

SOUTH AUSTRALIA: Election would be too close to call

2PP: L-NP 50.5% (up 1.5% since April 10-13, 2015) cf. ALP 49.5% (down 1.5%).

Primary vote: L-NP 41.5% (up 1.5%), ALP 34.5% (down 2%), Greens 12% (up 1%), Family First 4.5% (unchanged), and Independents/ Others 7.5% (down 0.5%).

Better Premier: Premier Jay Weatherill (ALP) v Steve Marshall (Liberal): Mr. Marshall 50.5% (up 1.5%) cf. Mr. Weatherill 49.5% (down 1.5%); Lead to Mr Marshall 1% (up 3%).

South Australian real unemployment is now 10.9% (down 1.8% since January – March 2015) and under-employment is 13.1% (up 1.6%). This means total South Australian unemployment & under-employment is 24.0% (down 0.2%). (Interviewed during February – April 2015).

South Australia State Election is due to be held in March 2018.


TASMANIA: ALP would win Election easily

2PP: ALP 53% (down 3% since April 10-13, 2015) cf. Liberals 47% (up 3%) – Estimate. 2PP vote is not applicable to the Tasmanian lower house which uses the Hare-Clark proportional voting system.

Primary vote: Liberals 41% (up 2%), ALP 35.5% (down 6%), Greens 19.5% (up 4.5%) and Independents/ Others 4% (down 0.5%).

Better Premier: Premier Will Hodgman (Liberal) v Bryan Green (ALP): Mr. Hodgman 63.5% (up 2.5%); Mr. Green 36.5% (down 2.5%); Lead to Mr Hodgman 27% (up 5%).

Tasmanian real unemployment is now 11.7% (down 0.3% since January 2014 – March 2015) and under-employment is 11.7% (down 0.3%). This means total Tasmanian unemployment & under-employment is 23.4% (down 0.6%). (Interviewed during February - April 2015).

Tasmanian State Election is due to be held in March 2018.

Gary Morgan, Executive Chairman, Roy Morgan Research, says:

“Today’s special SMS State Morgan Poll conducted around Australia earlier this week shows New South Wales Premier Mike Baird increasing an already strong lead won at the recent New South Wales election: L-NP 58.5% (up 4% since April) cf. ALP 41.5% (down 4%). Baird has also strengthened his lead as ‘Better Premier’: Baird 70.5% (up 2.5%) cf. Opposition Leader Luke Foley 29% (down 2.5%).

“In Victoria the six-month honeymoon period continues for Premier Daniel Andrews and the Labor Government with the ALP 56.5% (up 2.5% since April) still well ahead of the L-NP 43.5% (down 2.5%). Premier Daniel Andrews has also increased his already strong lead as ‘Better Premier’: Andrews 63% (up 3.5%) cf. Opposition Leader Matthew Guy 37% (down 3.5%).

“Further north in Queensland, the Opposition has enjoyed a resurgence in recent weeks to reclaim the lead from new Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk with the LNP 52% (up 4.5% since April) now clearly ahead of the ALP 48% (down 4.5%). The ongoing troubles with former North Queensland Labor MP Billy Gordon are clearly a headache for the Palaszczuk Government although Palaszczuk’s personal appeal hasn’t been negatively impacted with Palaszczuk 61.5% (unchanged since April) still clearly preferred to LNP Leader Lawrence Springborg 38.5% (unchanged) as ‘Better Premier’.

“The ALP 51% (up 1% since April) has a narrow lead over the L-NP 49% (down 1%) in Western Australia and Opposition Leader Mark McGowan 58% (down 1%) still has a large lead over WA Premier Colin Barnett as ‘Better Premier’. In South Australia the L-NP has gained a narrow advantage over the ALP Government: L-NP 50.5% (up 1.5% since April) cf. ALP 49.5% (down 1.5%) and Opposition Leader Steve Marshall 50.5% (up 1.5%) enjoys the same advantage over SA Premier Jay Weatherill 49.5% (down 1.5%) as ‘Better Premier’. In Tasmania there is something of a ‘split decision’ with the out-of-Government ALP 53% (down 3% since April) cf. Liberals 47% (up 3%) while Liberal Premier Will Hodgman 63.5% (up 2.5%) has increased his lead over Opposition Leader Bryan Green 36.5% (down 2.5%) as ‘Better Premier’.”


For the poll-watchers:

Electors were asked: “If a State Election for NSW/ Victoria/ Queensland/ WA/ SA/ Tasmania were being held today — which party would receive your first preference?” Electors were then asked: “Thinking of (Premier) and (Opposition Leader). In your opinion, who would make the better Premier?”

The SMS Morgan Poll on State voting intention and preferred Premiers was conducted on the week-end of May 22-24, 2015 with a cross-section of 5,389 Australian electors including 1,290 New South Wales electors, 1,164 Victorian electors, 959 Queensland electors, 616 Western Australian electors, 677 South Australian electors and 338 Tasmanian electors.


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