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‘Budget Bounce’ over for the L-NP as ALP regain initiative with Shorten’s call for same-sex marriage

Finding No. 6265 – This multi-mode Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted via face-to-face and SMS interviewing over the last two weekends May 23/24 & 30/31, 2015 with an Australia-wide cross-section of 3,140 Australian electors aged 18+, of all electors surveyed 1.5% (up 0.5%) did not name a party. 
Federal L-NP support is down 2% to 47% cf. ALP 53% (up 2%) according to this week’s Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention conducted over the last two weekends of May 23/24 & 30/31, 2015, with an Australia-wide cross-section of 3,140 Australian electors. If a Federal Election were held today the ALP would win easily.

Primary support for the L-NP fell to 41% (down 0.5%) ahead of the ALP 37% (up 1.5%). Support for the other parties shows the Greens at 13% (up 0.5%), Katter’s Australian Party 1.5% (unchanged), Palmer United Party (PUP) 1% (down 0.5%), while Independents/ Others were 6.5% (down 1%).

Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is now at 100pts (up 0.5pts) this week with 41.5% (down 0.5%) of Australians saying Australia is ‘heading in the wrong direction’ and 41.5% (unchanged) saying Australia is ‘heading in the right direction’ – this is the highest Government Confidence for more than a year since mid-April 2014.

Analysis by Gender

Analysis by Gender shows a majority of women and men supporting the ALP. Women: ALP 54.5% (unchanged) cf. L-NP 45.5% (unchanged) - Men: ALP 51.5% (up 4%) cf. L-NP 48.5% (down 4%).

Analysis by Age group

Analysis by Age group shows the ALP still with its strongest advantage among younger Australians. 18-24yr olds heavily favour the ALP 68% cf. L-NP 32%; 25-34yr olds also heavily favour the ALP 58.5% cf. L-NP 41.5%; 35-49yr olds favour the ALP 55.5% cf. L-NP 44.5%; 50-64yr olds very narrowly favour the ALP 50.5% cf. L-NP 49.5% and those aged 65+ heavily favour the L-NP 58.5% cf. ALP 41.5%.

Analysis by States

The ALP now has a two-party preferred lead in three Australian States. Victoria: ALP 56.5% cf. L-NP 43.5%, Queensland: ALP 54.5% cf. L-NP 45.5% and Tasmania: ALP 53% cf. L-NP 47% while the L-NP leads narrowly in the other three States: South Australia: L-NP 51% cf. ALP 49%; Western Australia the L-NP 51% cf. ALP 49% and New South Wales: L-NP 51% cf. ALP 49% favour the L-NP.

The Morgan Poll surveys a larger sample (including people who only use a mobile phone) than any other public opinion poll. The Morgan Poll asks Minor Party supporters which way they will vote their preferences. *News Corp’s poll does not measure or reference the PUP vote!

The Morgan Poll allocated preferences based on how people say they will vote – allocating preferences by how electors voted at the last Federal Election, as used by News Corp’s poll* shows the ALP (52%) cf. L-NP (48%) – for trends see the Morgan Poll historic data table.

Gary Morgan says:

“The ‘Budget Bounce’ for the Coalition Government has proved short-lived with the ALP 53% (up 2% since May 16/17, 2015) regaining a clear advantage over the L-NP 47% (down 2%) on a two-party preferred basis after Opposition Leader Bill Shorten promised to introduce a private member’s bill to Parliament to allow for a redefinition of marriage under Australian law.

“Shorten believes the definition of marriage should be broadened to include gay and lesbian couples following the results of the Irish referendum last week in which Irish electors decided by a clear margin (Yes 62% cf. No 38%) to change the Irish definition of marriage to include same-sex relationships. A Roy Morgan poll conducted in 2011 found an even larger majority of Australians (68%) support the right of gay people to get married compared to only 30% who think they shouldn’t have this right.

“In addition, other Roy Morgan research shows an increasing majority of Australians believe homosexual couples should be allowed to adopt children. In 2010 just under half of Australians (48%) agreed homosexual couples should be allowed to adopt children and this figure has increased steadily each year since – to 51% in 2011, 56% in 2012, 58% in 2013 and 61% in 2014.

“There have already been several attempts to legislate for same-sex marriage in Australia, including an attempt by the Australian Capital Territory to change the definition of marriage in the ACT which was ultimately reversed by the High Court on constitutional grounds following a challenge by the Federal Government which wanted to prevent a multitude of definitions of marriage being introduced in Australia.

“Although Shorten introduced his same-sex marriage bill to the Lower House of Parliament today, less than half the chamber was in attendance with only a handful of Government MPs there to witness Shorten introducing his bill. Shorten’s private member’s bill is the third same-sex marriage bill before Parliament along with similar bills by Liberal Democrat Senator David Leyonhjelm and a Greens bill also before the Senate.

“Despite the introduction of the Opposition Leader’s same-sex marriage bill today the Coalition  Government has re-affirmed its commitment to implementing its plans laid out in the recent Federal Budget and has set the reforms to the small business sector as a higher priority than legislation to change the definition of marriage in Australia.

“The Government’s commitment to passing their second Federal Budget was reaffirmed today by Prime Minister Tony Abbott when asked about Shorten’s same-sex marriage bill.

"Economic growth in Australia slowing – just today the ABS has announced Australian building approvals fell 4.4% in April from the month before. The only way for the Coalition Government to counter the slowing Australian economy is to undertake comprehensive reforms to increase Australian productivity and ‘free-up’ the Australian labour market – currently 2.5 million Australians (19.4%) are unemployed or under-employed.”

Electors were asked: “If an election for the House of Representatives were held today – which party will receive your first preference?”

Visit the Roy Morgan Online Store to browse our range of Voter Profiles by electorate, detailed Voting Intention Demographics Reports and Most important Political Issue Reports (all 150 electorates ranked by an issue).

Finding No. 6265 – This multi-mode Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted via face-to-face and SMS interviewing over the last two weekends May 23/24 & 30/31, 2015 with an Australia-wide cross-section of 3,140 Australian electors aged 18+, of all electors surveyed 1.5% (up 0.5%) did not name a party.


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Data Tables


Morgan Poll on Federal Voting Intention - June 1, 2015

Roy Morgan GCR

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

500

±4.5

±3.9

±2.7

±1.9

1,000

±3.2

±2.7

±1.9

±1.4

1,500

±2.6

±2.2

±1.5

±1.1

2,000

±2.2

±1.9

±1.3

±1.0