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ALP increases lead after Hockey says first home buyers should ‘get a good job that pays good money’

Finding No. 6292 – This multi-mode Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted via face-to-face and SMS interviewing over the last two weekends June 6/7 & 13/14, 2015 with an Australia-wide cross-section of 3,297 Australian electors aged 18+, of all electors surveyed 2.5% (up 1%) did not name a party.
Federal L-NP support is down 1.5% to 45.5% cf. ALP 54.5% (up 1.5%) according to this week’s Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention conducted over the last two weekends of June 6/7 & 13/14, 2015, with an Australia-wide cross-section of 3,297 Australian electors. If a Federal Election were held today the ALP would win easily.

Primary support for the L-NP fell to 37.5% (down 3.5%) level with the ALP 37.5% (up 0.5%). Support for the other parties shows the Greens at 13.5% (up 0.5%), Palmer United Party (PUP) 1.5% (up 0.5%), Katter’s Australian Party 1% (down 0.5%), while Independents/ Others were 9% (up 2.5%).

Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is now at 98.5pts (down 1.5pts) this week with 41.5% (unchanged) of Australians saying Australia is ‘heading in the wrong direction’ and 40% (down 1.5%) saying Australia is ‘heading in the right direction’.

Analysis by Gender

Analysis by Gender shows a majority of women and men supporting the ALP. Women: ALP 57% (up 2.5%) cf. L-NP 43% (down 2.5%) and Men: ALP 51.5% (unchanged) cf. L-NP 48.5% (unchanged).

Analysis by Age group

Analysis by Age group shows the ALP still with its strongest advantage among younger Australians. 18-24yr olds heavily favour the ALP 67% cf. L-NP 33%; 25-34yr olds also heavily favour the ALP 59.5% cf. L-NP 40.5%; 35-49yr olds also heavily favour the ALP 59% cf. L-NP 41%; 50-64yr olds very narrowly favour the ALP 51% cf. L-NP 49% and those aged 65+ heavily favour the L-NP 56.5% cf. ALP 43.5%.

Analysis by States

The ALP now has a two-party preferred lead in five Australian States. Victoria: ALP 62% cf. L-NP 38%, Tasmania: ALP 57.5% cf. L-NP 42.5%, South Australia: ALP 55.5% cf. L-NP 44.5%, Queensland: ALP 51.5% cf. L-NP 48.5% and New South Wales: ALP 51% cf. L-NP 49%. However Western Australia clearly favours the L-NP 53% cf. ALP 47%.

The Morgan Poll surveys a larger sample (including people who only use a mobile phone) than any other public opinion poll. The Morgan Poll asks Minor Party supporters which way they will vote their preferences. *News Corp’s poll does not measure or reference the PUP vote!

The Morgan Poll allocated preferences based on how people say they will vote – allocating preferences by how electors voted at the last Federal Election, as used by News Corp’s poll* shows the ALP (54.5%) cf. L-NP (45.5%) – for trends see the Morgan Poll historic data table.

Gary Morgan says:

“The short-term boost to Government support following the Federal Budget has well and truly dissipated with the ALP 54.5% (up 1.5%) cf. L-NP 45.5% (down 1.5%) now holding their largest two-party preferred lead since March. In addition, Roy Morgan Government Confidence has dropped to 98.5 (down 1.5pts) – the lowest it’s been since Treasurer Joe Hockey delivered the Abbott Government’s second Federal Budget on May 12.

“Hockey was in the news last week for all the wrong reasons – stating that first home buyers should ‘get a good job that pays good money’ if they want to buy a house in Australia’s booming residential property markets – particularly his home city of Sydney. Hockey’s comments attracted a lot of negative media attention for the Government with many media pundits branding Hockey as ‘out of touch’ for the comments.

“The recent deterioration in support for the Government comes only two weeks before Parliament rises for the Winter break at the end of next week – to return in mid-August. The Winter break will come as a welcome respite for Prime Minister Tony Abbott – assuming he avoids the mid-Winter fate of Australia’s two most recent Prime Ministers, Kevin Rudd and Julia Gillard. Both were deposed from the top job in June – as we are being reminded at present with the ABC TV show ‘The Killing Season’.

“The ‘political sleeper’ is whether the Coalition can ‘nail’ Opposition Leader Bill Shorten  around potentially ‘dodgy’ deals done between the Australian Workers Union (AWU) and the Spotless Catering group subsidiary Cleanevent to deprive cleaners of their overtime rates mandated by the Fair Work legislation in 2009 – before Shorten in 2011 became the Minister for Employment and Workplace Relations. The resignation of Victorian Government Upper House whip, Cesar Melhem MP, in relation to alleged corruption, has brought more attention on Shorten, who was National Secretary of the AWU between 2001-2007.”

Electors were asked: “If an election for the House of Representatives were held today – which party will receive your first preference?”

Visit the Roy Morgan Online Store to browse our range of Voter Profiles by electorate, detailed Voting Intention Demographics Reports and Most important Political Issue Reports (all 150 electorates ranked by an issue).

Finding No. 6292 – This multi-mode Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted via face-to-face and SMS interviewing over the last two weekends June 6/7 & 13/14, 2015 with an Australia-wide cross-section of 3,297 Australian electors aged 18+, of all electors surveyed 2.5% (up 1%) did not name a party.


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Data Tables


Morgan Poll on Federal Voting Intention - June 15, 2015

Roy Morgan GCR

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

500

±4.5

±3.9

±2.7

±1.9

1,000

±3.2

±2.7

±1.9

±1.4

1,500

±2.6

±2.2

±1.5

±1.1

2,000

±2.2

±1.9

±1.3

±1.0