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National Government support down to 49.5% as New Zealand growth slows to 0.2% in March Quarter – slowest in two years

Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?” This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile telephone, with a NZ wide cross-section of 905 electors in June 2015. Of all electors surveyed 5% (unchanged) didn’t name a party.
During June support for National was down 4.5% to 49.5% as New Zealand growth slowed to 0.2% in the March Quarter 2015 - the slowest in two years. However, despite the fall the National-led Government has a large lead over a potential Labour/Greens alliance with their support at 39% (up 3%), according to the latest Roy Morgan New Zealand Poll.

If a National Election were held now the latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows that National would win and be able to govern in their own right.

Support for National supporters the Maori Party was unchanged at 1% while support is unchanged for both Act NZ 1% and United Future 0%.

Support has increased for all three Parliamentary Opposition parties: Labour’s support is now at 26% (up 0.5%), Greens 13% (up 2.5%) and NZ First 6.5% (up 0.5%). For the parties outside Parliament the Conservative Party of NZ is 1% (unchanged) while the Internet-Mana Party alliance is at 0% (unchanged) and support for Independent/ Others is 2% (up 1%).

The latest NZ Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has fallen slightly to 135.5pts (down 1pt). There are now 62.5% (down 0.5%) of NZ electors saying NZ is ‘heading in the right direction’ compared to 27% (up 0.5%) that say NZ is ‘heading in the wrong direction’. NZ Government Confidence is substantially higher than in Australia – Australian Government Confidence last week was at 98.5pts.

Gary Morgan, Executive Chairman, Roy Morgan Research, says:

“National lost support in June – now at 49.5% (down 4.5%), following New Zealand’s slowest GDP growth (0.2%) in two years during the March Quarter 2015. Anticipating the growth slowdown the Reserve Bank of New Zealand cut interest rates to 3.25% in June – the first cut in interest rates for over four years since March 2011. However, despite the drop, National retains a very strong lead over a potential Labour/ Greens alliance 39% (up 3%).

“The slowdown in the New Zealand economy in recent months is evident when one looks at the ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence Rating – now 119.9 in June. Consumer Confidence has now fallen in the past two months from 128.8 in April to 123.9 in May and now down to 119.9 in June (down 8.9pts (6.9%) in the past two months). In addition, the New Zealand Dollar has fallen from 77.2 US cents in late April to 68.6 US cents today – a fall of 8.6 cents (11.1%).

“However, despite the worries, there is still good news with New Zealand Government Confidence  at 135.5 in June with 62.5% of New Zealand electors saying New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’ far higher than ‘across the ditch’ in Australia where Government Confidence is 98.5 with only 40% of Australians saying Australia is ‘heading in the right direction’.”

Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?” This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile telephone, with a NZ wide cross-section of 905 electors in June 2015. Of all electors surveyed 5% (unchanged) didn’t name a party.

Roy Morgan New Zealand Interactive Voting Charts

These interactive charts allow a deeper look at voting patterns in New Zealand over varying timeframes and provide election observers with the ability to pinpoint key turning points for the political parties.

View interactive New Zealand Election charts here.

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Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

1,000

±3.2

±2.7

±1.9

±1.4

1,500

±2.6

±2.2

±1.5

±1.1

2,000

±2.2

±1.9

±1.3

±1.0