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Mike Baird & Daniel Andrews have large leads in NSW & Victoria while Annastacia Palaszczuk regains lead in Queensland

The SMS Morgan Poll on State voting intention and preferred Premiers was conducted on the week-end of June 19-21, 2015 with a cross-section of 5,323 Australian electors including 1,270 New South Wales electors, 1,211 Victorian electors, 934 Queensland electors, 598 Western Australian electors, 639 South Australian electors and 333 Tasmanian electors.

The L-NP leads strongly in NSW: L-NP 57% cf. ALP 43% and the ALP holds a similarly large lead in Victoria: ALP 56.5% cf. L-NP 43.5% on two-party preferred bases in June, according to this month’s SMS Morgan Poll on State voting intention.

Both Governments would be re-elected easily if elections were held now despite small decreases in support for both. State voting intention was conducted over the weekend (June 19-21, 2015) with a representative cross-section of 5,323 Australian electors.

Meanwhile, in Australia’s two largest mining States the Governments have regained the initiative in June with the Annastacia Palaszczuk-led ALP now leading in Queensland: ALP 51.5% cf. LNP 48.5% and the Colin Barnett-led L-NP now back in front in Western Australia: L-NP 52.5% cf. ALP 47.5% on two-party preferred bases. This is the first time L-NP has led in Western Australia on a two-party preferred basis for seven months since November 2014.

NEW SOUTH WALES: L-NP would win an Election easily

2PP: L-NP 57% (down 1.5% since May 22-24, 2015) cf. ALP 43% (up 1.5%).

Primary vote: L-NP 49.5% (down 4%), ALP 27.5% (down 2%), Greens 14% (up 2%), Christian Democrats 3% (up 2%) and Independents/ Others 6% (up 2%).

Better Premier: Premier Mike Baird (Liberal) v Luke Foley (ALP):
Mr. Baird 70% (down 0.5% since May 22-24, 2015) cf. Mr. Foley 30% (up 0.5%);
Lead to Mr. Baird 40% (down 1%).

New South Wales real unemployment is now 10% (unchanged since March - April 2015) and under-employment is 7.6% (up 0.4%). This means total New South Wales unemployment & under-employment is 17.6% (up 0.4%). (Interviewed April - May 2015).

Last New South Wales State Election was held on Saturday March 28, 2015


VICTORIA: ALP would win an Election easily

2PP: ALP 56.5% (unchanged since May 22-24, 2015) cf. L-NP 43.5% (unchanged).

Primary vote: ALP 42% (down 1.5%), L-NP 38.5% (unchanged); Greens 13% (up 0.5%), Family First 1.5% (unchanged), Country Alliance 0.5% (unchanged) and Independents/ Others 4.5% (up 1%).

Better Premier: Premier Daniel Andrews (ALP) v Matthew Guy (Liberal): Mr. Andrews 61.5% (down 1.5%) cf. Mr. Guy 38.5% (up 1.5%); Lead to Mr. Andrews 23% (down 3%).

Victorian real unemployment is now 9.2% (down 1% since March - April 2015) and under-employment is 9.6% (down 0.1%). This means total Victorian unemployment & under-employment is 18.8% (down 1.1%). (Interviewed April – May 2015).

Next Victorian State Election is due to be held on Saturday November 24, 2018.


QUEENSLAND: Election would be too close to call

2PP: ALP 51.5% (up 3.5% since May 22-24, 2015) cf. LNP 48.5% (down 3.5%).  Female electors: ALP 55% (up 4%) cf. LNP 45% (down 4%). Male electors: LNP 52.5% (down 2.5%) cf. ALP 47.5% (up 2.5%).

Primary vote electors: LNP 42% (down 2%), ALP 39.5% (up 5.5%), Greens 9.5% (down 1.5%), Katter’s Australian Party 3.5% (up 0.5%), Family First 1.5% (up 0.5%), Independents/ Others 4% (down 3%). Female electors: ALP 44.5% (up 8.5%), LNP 39% (down 2%), Greens 8.5% (down 4.5%), Katter’s Australian Party 2.5% (up 1%), Family First 1.5% (unchanged), Independents/ Others 4% (down 3%). Male electors: LNP 44.5% (down 2.5%), ALP 34% (up 1.5%), Greens 10.5% (up 1.5%), Katter’s Australian Party 4.5% (unchanged), Family First 1.5% (up 0.5%), Independents/ Others 5% (down 1%).

Better Premier: Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk (ALP) v Lawrence Springborg (LNP) electors:
Ms. Palaszczuk 61% (down 0.5% since May 22-24, 2015) cf. Mr. Springborg 39% (up 0.5%); Lead to Ms Palaszczuk 22% (down 1%). Female electors: Ms. Palaszczuk 65% (down 4%) cf. Mr. Springborg 35% (up 4%). Lead to Ms. Palaszczuk 30% (down 8%). Male electors: Ms. Palaszczuk 57% (up 3.5%) cf. Mr. Springborg 43% (down 3.5%). Lead to Ms. Palaszczuk 14% (up 7%).

Queensland real unemployment is now 12.7% (up 0.7% since March – April 2015) and under-employment is 8.8% (down 0.2%). This means total Queensland unemployment & under-employment is 21.5% (up 0.5%). (Interviewed April– May 2015).

Last Queensland State Election was held on Saturday January 31, 2015.


WESTERN AUSTRALIA: L-NP would win close Election

2PP: L-NP 52.5% (up 3.5% since May 22-24, 2015) cf. ALP 47.5% (down 3.5%).

Primary vote: Liberal 38.5% (up 4%), ALP 32.5% (down 3.5%), WA Nationals 7% (down 0.5%), Greens 14% (unchanged), Christians 1% (down 0.5%), and Independents/ Others 7% (up 0.5%).

Better Premier: Premier Colin Barnett (Liberal) v Mark McGowan (ALP): Mr. McGowan 58.5% (up 0.5%) cf. Mr. Barnett 41.5% (down 0.5%); Lead to Mr McGowan 17% (up 1%).

Western Australian real unemployment is now 9.8% (down 1.6% since February - April 2015) and under-employment is 6.5% (up 0.4%). This means total Western Australian unemployment & under-employment is 16.3% (down 1.2%). (Interviewed March – May 2015).

Next Western Australian State Election is due to be held on Saturday March 11, 2017.


SOUTH AUSTRALIA: Election would be too close to call

2PP: L-NP 51% (up 0.5% since May 22-24, 2015) cf. ALP 49% (down 0.5%).

Primary vote: L-NP 43% (up 1.5%), ALP 33.5% (down 1%), Greens 13.5% (up 1.5%), Family First 4% (down 0.5%), and Independents/ Others 6% (down 1.5%).

Better Premier: Premier Jay Weatherill (ALP) v Steven Marshall (Liberal): Mr. Marshall 51% (up 0.5%) cf. Mr. Weatherill 49% (down 0.5%); Lead to Mr Marshall 2% (up 1%).

South Australian real unemployment is now 11.0% (up 0.1% since February – April 2015) and under-employment is 10.6% (down 2.5%). This means total South Australian unemployment & under-employment is 21.6% (down 2.4%). (Interviewed March – May 2015).

Next South Australian State Election is due to be held on Saturday March 17, 2018.


TASMANIA: Election would be too close to call

2PP: ALP 51.5% (down 1.5% since May 22-24, 2015) cf. Liberals 48.5% (up 1.5%) – Estimate. 2PP vote is not applicable to the Tasmanian lower house which uses the Hare-Clark proportional voting system.

Primary vote: Liberals 42.5% (up 1.5%), ALP 33% (down 2.5%), Greens 20% (up 0.5%) and Independents/ Others 4.5% (up 0.5%).

Better Premier: Premier Will Hodgman (Liberal) v Bryan Green (ALP): Mr. Hodgman 61% (down 2.5%); Mr. Green 39% (up 2.5%); Lead to Mr Hodgman 22% (down 5%).

Tasmanian real unemployment is now 13.8% (up 2.1% since February – April 2015) and under-employment is 7.0% (down 4.7%). This means total Tasmanian unemployment & under-employment is 20.8% (down 2.6%). (Interviewed March - May 2015).

Next Tasmanian State Election is due to be held before December 31, 2018.


Gary Morgan, Executive Chairman, Roy Morgan Research, says:

“Today’s special SMS State Morgan Poll conducted around Australia earlier this week shows New South Wales Premier Mike Baird maintains a strong lead despite a small fall in support: L-NP 57% (down 1.5% since May) cf. ALP 43% (up 1.5%). Baird has also retained his standing as Australia’s most popular State Premier: Baird 70% (down 0.5%) cf. Opposition Leader Luke Foley 30% (up 0.5%).

“In Victoria the seven-month honeymoon period continues for Premier Daniel Andrews and the Labor Government with the ALP 56.5% (unchanged since May) still well ahead of the L-NP 43.5% (unchanged). Despite a small drop in support Premier Daniel Andrews also retains a strong lead as ‘Better Premier’: Andrews 61.5% (down 1.5%) cf. Opposition Leader Matthew Guy 38.5% (up 1.5%).

“In Australia’s two mining States the Governments have regained the initiative in June with the ALP Government in Queensland now ahead: ALP 51.5% (up 3.5% since May) cf. LNP 48.5% (down 3.5%) and the L-NP Government in Western Australia also back in front: L-NP 52.5% (up 3.5% since May) cf. ALP 47.5% (down 3.5%). However, there are contrasting views of the two Premiers with Queensland Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk 61% (down 0.5%) clearly preferred to LNP Leader Lawrence Springborg 39% (up 0.5%) while Western Australia Opposition Leader Mark McGowan 58.5% (up 0.5%) is clearly regarded as the ‘Better Premier’ in the West over Premier Colin Barnett 41.5% (down 0.5%).

“In South Australia the L-NP retains a narrow advantage over the ALP Government: L-NP 51% (up 0.5% since May) cf. ALP 49% (down 0.5%) and Opposition Leader Steven Marshall 51% (up 0.5%) enjoys the same advantage over SA Premier Jay Weatherill 49% (down 0.5%) as ‘Better Premier’. In Tasmania there is something of a ‘split decision’ with the out-of-Government ALP 51.5% (down 1.5% since May) cf. Liberals 48.5% (up 1.5%) while Liberal Premier Will Hodgman 61% (down 2.5%) has maintained a strong lead over Opposition Leader Bryan Green 39% (up 2.5%) as ‘Better Premier’.”


For the poll-watchers:

Electors were asked: “If a State Election for NSW/ Victoria/ Queensland/ WA/ SA/ Tasmania were being held today — which party would receive your first preference?” Electors were then asked: “Thinking of (Premier) and (Opposition Leader). In your opinion, who would make the better Premier?”

The SMS Morgan Poll on State voting intention and preferred Premiers was conducted on the week-end of June 19-21, 2015 with a cross-section of 5,323 Australian electors including 1,270 New South Wales electors, 1,211 Victorian electors, 934 Queensland electors, 598 Western Australian electors, 639 South Australian electors and 333 Tasmanian electors.


For further information:

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