Back To Listing

L-NP vote up 1% as Opposition Leader Bill Shorten under controversy for his role in the AWU ‘affair’ and caught out on a lie – however ALP would still win a Federal Election

Finding No. 6319 – This multi-mode Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted via face-to-face and SMS interviewing over the last two weekends June 20/21 & 27/28, 2015 with an Australia-wide cross-section of 3,282 Australian electors aged 18+, of all electors surveyed 2% (down 0.5%) did not name a party.
Federal L-NP support is up 1% to 46.5% cf. ALP 53.5% (down 1%) after Opposition Leader Bill Shorten faced criticism for his role in the AWU ‘affair’ and was caught lying about his support for former Prime Minister Julia Gillard – however the ALP would still win a Federal Election held now.

Primary support for the L-NP is up 1.5% to 39% now clearly ahead of the ALP 36% (down 1.5%). Support for other parties shows the Greens at 14% (up 0.5%), Palmer United Party 1.5% (unchanged), Katter’s Australian Party 1% (unchanged), while Independents/ Others were 8.5% (down 0.5%).

This week’s Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted over the last two weekends of June 20/21 & 27/28, 2015, with an Australia-wide cross-section of 3,282 Australian electors.

Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is unchanged at 98.5pts this week with 41.5% (unchanged) of Australians saying Australia is ‘heading in the wrong direction’ and 40% (unchanged) saying Australia is ‘heading in the right direction’.

Analysis by Gender

Analysis by Gender shows a majority of women and men supporting the ALP. Women: ALP 55.5% (down 1.5%) cf. L-NP 44.5% (up 1.5%) and Men: ALP 52% (up 0.5%) cf. L-NP 48% (down 0.5%).

Analysis by Age group

Analysis by Age group shows the ALP still with its strongest advantage among younger Australians. 18-24yr olds heavily favour the ALP 62% cf. L-NP 38%; 25-34yr olds also heavily favour the ALP 62% cf. L-NP 38%; 35-49yr olds favour the ALP 56% cf. L-NP 44%; 50-64yr olds very narrowly favour the ALP 52% cf. L-NP 48% and those aged 65+ heavily favour the L-NP 57.5% cf. ALP 42.5%.

Analysis by States

The ALP now has a two-party preferred lead in all Australian States except Tasmania which is evenly divided. South Australia: ALP 57% cf. L-NP 43%, Queensland: ALP 54% cf. L-NP 46%, New South Wales: ALP 53.5% cf. L-NP 46.5%, Victoria: ALP 53% cf. L-NP 47%, Western Australia: ALP 53% cf. L-NP 47% and Tasmania: ALP 50% cf. L-NP 50%.

The Morgan Poll surveys a larger sample (including people who only use a mobile phone) than any other public opinion poll. The Morgan Poll asks Minor Party supporters which way they will vote their preferences. *News Corp’s poll does not measure or reference the PUP vote!

The Morgan Poll allocated preferences based on how people say they will vote – allocating preferences by how electors voted at the last Federal Election, as used by News Corp’s poll* shows the ALP (53%) cf. L-NP (47%) – for trends see the Morgan Poll historic data table.

Gary Morgan says:

“L-NP support has increased 1% to 46.5% cf. ALP 53.5% (down 1%) on a two-party preferred basis after Opposition Leader Bill Shorten was caught lying to 3AW host Neil Mitchell about his support for former Prime Minister Julia Gillard just before she was deposed two years ago to be replaced by Kevin Rudd.

“In addition to Shorten’s admitted lying about the Labor leadership, the Opposition Leader also faces tough questioning at the Royal Commission into Trade Union Governance and Corruption concerning his role in ‘dodgy’ deals done between the AWU, which Shorten headed between 2001-2007, and Spotless subsidiary Cleanevent. It has been alleged that the deal between the AWU and Cleanevent deprived union workers of up to $6 million in wages.

“Last week also saw a storm of controversy surrounding the ABC TV show Q&A broadcast last Monday. The show came under attack from the Government for allowing Zaky Mallah, convicted of threatening violence against Commonwealth officials in 2005, to appear on the show and ask a question of Government MP Steve Ciobo, the Parliamentary Secretary for Foreign Affairs.

“In response to Mallah’s appearance on the show, Prime Minister Tony Abbott suggested ‘heads should roll’ at the ABC and announced the Government would hold an inquiry into Q&A to determine what happened. Responding to the criticism, ABC Managing Director Mark Scott defended the ABC saying the broadcaster was ‘on the side of Australia’ and promised the ABC would cooperate fully with the Government inquiry into Q&A.

“Shorten has claimed Abbott used ‘clumsy language’ and went too far in claiming ‘heads should roll’ at the ABC, and questioned whether a Government inquiry into Q&A was appropriate in the circumstances. Shorten also stated that the ABC is ‘independent of Government, not a propaganda arm of government’. However, despite the many troubles for the Opposition Leader over the last fortnight the ALP retains a clear election winning-lead according to today’s Morgan Poll.”


Electors were asked: “If an election for the House of Representatives were held today – which party will receive your first preference?”

Visit the Roy Morgan Online Store to browse our range of Voter Profiles by electorate, detailed Voting Intention Demographics Reports and Most important Political Issue Reports (all 150 electorates ranked by an issue).

Finding No. 6319 – This multi-mode Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted via face-to-face and SMS interviewing over the last two weekends June 20/21 & 27/28, 2015 with an Australia-wide cross-section of 3,282 Australian electors aged 18+, of all electors surveyed 2% (down 0.5%) did not name a party.


For further information:

Contact

Office

Mobile

Gary Morgan:

+61 3 9224 5213

+61 411 129 094

Michele Levine:

+61 3 9224 5215

+61 411 129 093



Data Tables


Morgan Poll on Federal Voting Intention - June 29, 2015

Roy Morgan GCR

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

500

±4.5

±3.9

±2.7

±1.9

1,000

±3.2

±2.7

±1.9

±1.4

1,500

±2.6

±2.2

±1.5

±1.1

2,000

±2.2

±1.9

±1.3

±1.0