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Australian June real unemployment 9.3% – down for fourth consecutive month

This Roy Morgan survey on Australia’s unemployment and ‘under-employed’* is based on weekly face-to-face interviews of 437,819 Australians aged 14 and over between January 2007 – June 2015 and includes 4,233 face-to-face interviews in June 2015.
In June 2015 Roy Morgan Unemployment is down 1.3% from a year ago to 9.3%:

  • 12,755,000 Australians are in the workforce (up 247,000 since June 2014) – now 11,563,000 Australians are employed (up a large 381,000 since June 2014 – and a new record high);
  • 7,820,000 Australians are employed full-time (up a large 351,000 since June 2014 – and a new record high);
  • 3,743,000 Australians are employed part-time (up 30,000 since June 2014);
  • 1,192,000 Australians are looking for work: 9.3% of the workforce – down 134,000 (or 1.3%) since June 2014;
  • 1,129,000 Australians are under-employed -  working part-time and looking for more hours: 8.9% of the workforce – down 59,000 (or 0.6%) since June 2014;
  • 2,321,000 Australians are unemployed or under-employed: 18.2% of the workforce – down 193,000 (down 1.9%) since June 2014.
  • Despite this month’s decrease the latest Roy Morgan unemployment estimate of 9.3% is still a substantial 3.3% higher than the figure currently quoted by the ABS for May 2015 (6.0%).

Roy Morgan Unemployed and ‘Under-employed’* Estimate

Unemployed or

‘Under-employed’*

Unemployed

Unemployed looking for

‘Under-employed’*

Full-time

Part-time

2014

‘000

%

‘000

%

‘000

‘000

‘000

%

Jan-Mar 2014

2,532

20.0

1,489

11.7

844

645

1,043

8.2

Apr-Jun 2014

2,360

18.9

1,273

10.2

638

635

1,087

8.7

Jul-Sep 2014

2,237

18.2

1,179

9.6

594

585

1,058

8.6

Oct-Dec 2014

2,449

19.6

1,251

10.0

559

692

1,198

9.6

2015

Jan-Mar 2015

2,384

18.9

1,327

10.5

656

672

1,057

8.4

Apr-Jun 2015

2,359

18.7

1,263

10.0

618

645

1,096

8.7

Months

May 2014

2,179

17.8

1,186

9.7

603

583

993

8.1

June 2014

2,514

20.1

1,326

10.6

684

642

1,188

9.5

July 2014

2,344

18.9

1,265

10.2

654

611

1,079

8.7

August 2014

2,144

17.6

1,064

8.7

516

548

1,080

8.8

September 2014

2,223

18.2

1,208

9.9

613

595

1,015

8.3

October 2014

2,207

18.4

1,090

9.1

461

629

1,117

9.3

November 2014

2,491

19.7

1,260

10.0

564

696

1,231

9.7

December 2014

2,648

20.6

1,402

10.9

653

749

1,246

9.7

January 2015

2,266

18.0

1,233

9.8

635

598

1,033

8.2

February 2015

2,542

20.3

1,381

11.0

590

791

1,161

9.3

March 2015

2,344

18.5

1,368

10.8

742

626

976

7.7

April 2015

2,446

19.4

1,309

10.4

656

653

1,137

9.0

May 2015

2,310

18.5

1,289

10.3

646

643

1,021

8.2

June 2015

2,321

18.2

1,192

9.3

552

640

1,129

8.9

*Workforce includes those employed and those looking for work – the unemployed.

Gary Morgan says:

“Australian employment has increased to a new record in June to 11,563,000 (up a large 381,000 since June 2014). The strong rise in employment has been led by a large increase in full-time employment over the past year to a record high of 7,820,000 (up 351,000) while part-time employment has also increased to 3,743,000 (up 30,000) according to today’s Roy Morgan June employment estimates.

“The strong rise in Australian employment over the past year has also led to a drop in unemployment – now 9.3% (down 1.3% from a year ago) and the unemployment rate is now down for the fourth consecutive month since reaching a recent high of 11.0% in February 2015. Australia’s under-employment rate of 8.9% is down 0.6% from a year ago, but up sharply compared to month ago. Today’s estimates mean total Australian unemployment and under-employment of 2.32 million (18.2% of the workforce) has now been above 2 million Australians for 43 straight months – more than 3 ½ years.

“There is further good news for the Abbott Government with the latest ANZ- Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating of 116.3 the highest since Australia Day in 2014 nearly 18 months ago. Consumer Confidence has now increased 7.6pts (+7.0%) since just before the Federal Budget was delivered in early May (May 2/3, 2015 – 108.7). The improvement in Consumer Confidence this year is in stark contrast to the poorly received Federal Budget of a year ago which saw Consumer Confidence plunge.

“The improving indicators give PM Tony Abbott and his team the chance to undertake comprehensive structural reform to Australia’s labour market and cut the ‘red tape’ that prevents businesses from hiring. These are the sort of reforms the Australian economy desperately needs to continue growing over the next few months and years. An absence of reform will inevitably lead to a slowing Australian economy in the near future – and may cost Mr. Abbott his job at next year’s Federal Election – the latest Morgan Poll shows the ALP 53.5% cf. L-NP 46.5% on a two-party preferred basis.

“As I’ve explained previously the post Federal Budget boost to Consumer Confidence, and the improving employment estimates, will both prove short-lived if further reforms are not enacted - the next measure the Abbott Government must look at should be the abolition of Sunday and public holiday penalty rates for the tourism and retail industries – these measures have an obvious detrimental impact on small businesses which are forced to close on Sundays and public holidays.”

This Roy Morgan survey on Australia’s unemployment and ‘under-employed’* is based on weekly face-to-face interviews of 437,819 Australians aged 14 and over between January 2007 – June 2015 and includes 4,233 face-to-face interviews in June 2015.

*The ‘under-employed’ are those people who are in part-time work or consultants who are looking for more work. (Unfortunately the ABS does not release this figure in their monthly unemployment survey results.)


For further information

Contact

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Gary Morgan:     

+61 3 9224 5213  

+61 411 129 094

Michele Levine:       

+61 3 9224 5215  

+61 411 129 093


Unemployment Data Tables

Roy Morgan Research Employment Estimates (2001-2015)

Roy Morgan Research Unemployment & Under-employment Estimates (2007-2015)

Roy Morgan Research vs ABS Employment Estimates (1992-2015)

ABS Employment Estimates (1992-2015)

Roy Morgan June Unemployment - June 2015 - 9.3%

Roy Morgan Quarterly Unemployment - June Quarter 2015 - 10.0%

Roy Morgan Under-employment - June 2015 - 18.2%


ROY MORGAN MEASURES REAL UNEMPLOYMENT IN AUSTRALIA

NOT THE ‘PERCEPTION’ OF UNEMPLOYMENT – JUNE 8, 2012

http://www.roymorgan.com/~/media/Files/Papers/2012/20120603.pdf

The Roy Morgan Unemployment estimate is obtained by surveying an Australia-wide cross section by face-to-face interviews. A person is classified as unemployed if they are looking for work, no matter when.

The results are not seasonally adjusted and provide an accurate measure of monthly unemployment estimates in Australia.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics Unemployment estimates are obtained by mostly telephone interviews. Households selected for the ABS Survey are interviewed each month for eight months, with one-eighth of the sample being replaced each month. The first interview is conducted face-to-face. Subsequent interviews are then conducted by telephone.

The ABS classifies a person as unemployed if, when surveyed, they have been actively looking for work in the four weeks up to the end of the reference week and if they were available for work in the reference week.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics Unemployment estimates are also seasonally adjusted.

For these reasons the Australian Bureau of Statistics Unemployment estimates are different from the Roy Morgan Unemployment estimate. Gary Morgan's concerns regarding the ABS Unemployment estimate is clearly outlined in his letter to the Australian Financial Review, which was not published.