Back To Listing

ALP support crumbles as Opposition Leader Bill Shorten fronts Royal Commission

Finding No. 6336 – This multi-mode Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted via face-to-face and SMS interviewing over the last two weekends July 4/5 & 11/12, 2015 with an Australia-wide cross-section of 3,110 Australian electors aged 18+, of all electors surveyed 3% (up 1%) did not name a party.
In early July during the Trade Union Royal Commission Federal L-NP support is up 2.5% to 49% cf. ALP 51% (down 2.5%) after Opposition Leader Bill Shorten fronted the Commission over the past week. Shorten has faced hundreds of questions in the past week about his time with the Australian Workers Union (AWU); if a Federal Election were held now the result would be too close to call.

Primary support for the L-NP is up 2.5% to 41.5% now clearly ahead of the ALP 34.5% (down 1.5%) – the lowest level of ALP support for over a year since April 2014. Support for other parties shows the Greens at 13.5% (down 0.5%), Palmer United Party 1% (down 0.5%), Katter’s Australian Party 1.5% (up 0.5%), while Independents/ Others were 8% (down 0.5%).

This week’s Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted over the last two weekends, July 4/5 & 11/12, 2015, with an Australia-wide cross-section of 3,110 Australian electors.

Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is down 8pts to 90.5pts this week with 45.5% (up 4%) of Australians saying Australia is ‘heading in the wrong direction’ and 36% (down 4%) saying Australia is ‘heading in the right direction’.

Analysis by Gender

Analysis by Gender shows a majority of women supporting the ALP. Women: ALP 54% (down 1.5%) cf. L-NP 46% (up 1.5%) and a majority of men supporting the L-NP. Men: L-NP 52.5% (up 4.5%) cf. ALP 47.5% (down 4.5%).

Analysis by Age group

Analysis by Age group shows the ALP still with its strongest advantage among younger Australians. 18-24yr olds heavily favour the ALP 63.5% cf. L-NP 36.5%; 25-34yr olds also heavily favour the ALP 61% cf. L-NP 39%; 35-49yr olds slightly favour the ALP 51% cf. L-NP 49% while 50-64yr olds now favour the L-NP 52.5% cf. ALP 47.5% and those aged 65+ heavily favour the L-NP 58% cf. ALP 42%.

Analysis by States

The ALP now has a two-party preferred lead in 3 Australian States. Tasmania: ALP 58% cf. L-NP 42%, Victoria: ALP 53.5% cf. L-NP 46.5% and South Australia: ALP 50.5% cf. L-NP 49.5%, Queensland is evenly divided: ALP 50% cf. LNP 50%, while Western Australia favour the L-NP 52.5% cf. ALP 47.5% and New South Wales favour the L-NP 52% cf. ALP 48%.

The Morgan Poll surveys a larger sample (including people who only use a mobile phone) than any other public opinion poll. The Morgan Poll asks Minor Party supporters which way they will vote their preferences. *News Corp’s poll does not measure or reference the PUP vote!

The Morgan Poll allocated preferences based on how people say they will vote – allocating preferences by how electors voted at the last Federal Election, as used by News Corp’s poll* shows the ALP (51%) cf. L-NP (49%) – for trends see the Morgan Poll historic data table.

Gary Morgan says:

“In early July L-NP support  increased 2.5% to 49% cf. ALP 51% (down 2.5%) on a two-party preferred basis after Opposition Leader Bill Shorten fronted the Royal Commission into Trade Unions last week to answer hundreds of questions about his conduct while at the Australian Workers Union (AWU) immediately before his election to Federal Parliament in 2007.

“Amongst the allegations are that Shorten ‘cut deals’ with employers to benefit Union leaders at the expense of regular union members and also that the employers paid the wages of campaign staff during Shorten’s successful run for the Melbourne seat of Maribyrnong at the 2007 Federal Election – a seat Shorten has held ever since – without the employers concerned declaring they were doing so.

“The publicity covering the questions raised about Shorten’s conduct and credibility while at the AWU has no doubt had a direct impact on the drop in ALP support (34.5% primary support – the lowest ALP support since April 2014). This is despite the significant media coverage of Zaky Mallah’s controversial Q & A appearance and Prime Minister Tony Abbott’s ban on Coalition frontbenchers appearing on Q&A.

Des Moore from the Institute of Private Enterprise’s (IPE) conclusion ‘says it all’ - Shorten has failed the ‘Pub Test’ while fronting the Royal Commission last week. In addition Shorten’s answers to the questions posed by SC assisting Jeremy Stoljar raise more questions about Australia’s industrial relations which the Abbott Government needs to address now.

“The conclusion from the Royal Commission to date is clear – Australia’s industrial and workplace relations system needs to be overhauled to increase efficiencies and improve productivity. The secrecy surrounding ‘deals’ negotiated between employers and union leaders at the expense of union members must be removed and union members must know exactly what ‘deals’ are being conducted on their behalf – and whether they agree with them or not.”

Electors were asked: “If an election for the House of Representatives were held today – which party will receive your first preference?”

Visit the Roy Morgan Online Store to browse our range of Voter Profiles by electorate, detailed Voting Intention Demographics Reports and Most important Political Issue Reports (all 150 electorates ranked by an issue).

Finding No. 6336 – This multi-mode Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted via face-to-face and SMS interviewing over the last two weekends July 4/5 & 11/12, 2015 with an Australia-wide cross-section of 3,110 Australian electors aged 18+, of all electors surveyed 3% (up 1%) did not name a party.


For further information:

Contact

Office

Mobile

Gary Morgan:

+61 3 9224 5213

+61 411 129 094

Michele Levine:

+61 3 9224 5215

+61 411 129 093



Data Tables


Morgan Poll on Federal Voting Intention - July 13, 2015

Roy Morgan GCR

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

500

±4.5

±3.9

±2.7

±1.9

1,000

±3.2

±2.7

±1.9

±1.4

1,500

±2.6

±2.2

±1.5

±1.1

2,000

±2.2

±1.9

±1.3

±1.0