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Support for Labour/Greens coalition overtakes National for first time since New Zealand Election

Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?” This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile telephone, with a NZ wide cross-section of 886 electors in July 2015. Of all electors surveyed 5.5% (up 0.5%) didn’t name a party.

During July support for National fell 6.5% to 43% now trailing a potential Labour/Greens alliance 45% (up 6%) for the first time in over a year – since May 2014, according to the latest Roy Morgan New Zealand Poll. If a NZ Election were held now the latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows that the centrist NZ First would be in a position to determine New Zealand’s next Government.

Support for the National partners was little changed with the Maori Party up 0.5% to 1.5% while support for Act NZ is 0.5% (down 0.5%) and United Future 0% (unchanged).

Of the three Parliamentary Opposition parties - Labour’s support is now at 32% (up 6% to the highest since March 2014), Greens 13% (unchanged) and NZ First 7% (up 0.5%). Of the parties outside Parliament the Conservative Party of NZ is 1.5% (up 0.5%) while the Internet-Mana Party alliance is at 0% (unchanged) and support for Independent/ Others is 1.5% (down 0.5%).

The latest NZ Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has plunged to 118pts (down 17.5pts) in July. A slim majority of NZ electors 51% (down 11.5%) now say NZ is ‘heading in the right direction’ compared to 33% (up 6%) that say NZ is ‘heading in the wrong direction’. Despite this steep fall New Zealand Government Confidence is still substantially higher than in Australia – Australian Government Confidence last week was at only 90.5pts.

Gary Morgan, Executive Chairman, Roy Morgan Research, says:

“A potential Labour/Greens alliance 45% (up 6% since June) has overtaken National 43% (down 6.5%) for the first time since last year’s New Zealand Election. Support for Labour is now 32% (up 6%) – the smallest gap between National and Labour for over a year since March 2014.

“Other indicators are also negative for Prime Minister John Key. The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating fell steeply in July – now at 118 (down 17.5pts) its lowest since September 2013 while ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence Rating fell to 113.9 in July – the lowest since October 2012. Consumer Confidence has now fallen for three straight months.

“A slowing New Zealand economy (New Zealand’s GDP growth slowed to 0.2% in the March Quarter 2015 – the slowest New Zealand growth in two years) is presenting Prime Minister Key with his biggest challenge since coming to office in 2008. A special qualitative and quantitative survey conducted by Roy Morgan Research released last week found New Zealanders consider Economic issues (44%) the biggest problems facing New Zealand. Poverty/ The gap between the rich and the poor/ Imbalance of wealth (21%) and Housing shortage/ Housing affordability (14%) were the two single largest issues New Zealanders are facing in June 2015.

“The recent economic uncertainty from the Eurozone (Greece) and New Zealand’s largest export destination – China – are providing challenges to New Zealand’s economic strength of recent years. The uncertainty has contributed to the continuing fall in the New Zealand Dollar – now at a six-year low of 65.2 US cents today, down 12 cents (15.5%) since late April. In particular, the price of a tonne of whole milk powder has dropped to $US1,848 a tonne this week – down from $US 3,273 in February (a decline of $1,425 or a massive 43.5%). Incredibly, dairy exports account for around 30% of all New Zealand’s merchandise exports.”

Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?” This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile telephone, with a NZ wide cross-section of 886 electors between June 29 - July 12, 2015. Of all electors surveyed 5.5% (up 0.5%) didn’t name a party.


Roy Morgan New Zealand Interactive Voting Charts

These interactive charts allow a deeper look at voting patterns in New Zealand over varying timeframes and provide election observers with the ability to pinpoint key turning points for the political parties.

View interactive New Zealand Election charts here.

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Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

1,000

±3.2

±2.7

±1.9

±1.4

1,500

±2.6

±2.2

±1.5

±1.1

2,000

±2.2

±1.9

±1.3

±1.0