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ANZ-Roy Morgan Thai Consumer Confidence Plummets in July
July 22 2015
- Finding No.
Consumer Confidence Press Release
The monthly ANZ-Roy Morgan Thailand Consumer Confidence Index is based on 1,000 telephone interviews conducted throughout Thailand. Men and women aged 14 and over were randomly selected during the month of July 2015.
ANZ-Roy Morgan Thailand Consumer Confidence has dropped 12.5pts lower to 98.3 in July – a sixth straight month of falls. Consumer confidence is now well below its long-term average of 111.7 and a very large 25.1 pts lower than a year ago in July 2014 (123.4).
ANZ Chief Economist South Asia, ASEAN & Pacific, Glenn Maguire said:
- Driving this month’s fall in consumer confidence was the increased pessimism with which Thai respondents view their personal finances and the domestic economic outlook over the next 12 months.
- In terms of personal finances, 24% (down 4ppts) of respondents said their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, in contrast to 47% (up 6ppts) who said their families are ‘worse off’ than a year ago (the highest value ever recorded for this indicator).
- 42% (down 6ppts) of respondents said they expect their families to be ‘better off’ financially in a year’s time. This is the lowest value recorded for the indicator since April 2014. Meanwhile, 22% (up 8ppts) expect to be ‘worse off’ financially, pushing the indicator to its highest level since February 2014.
- As for economic conditions in Thailand going forward, 39% (down a large 11ppts) of respondents expect Thailand to have ‘good times’ financially over the next 12 months, the lowest value recorded for this indicator since April 2014. However, 42% (up a very large 15ppts) expect ‘bad times’ financially, the highest value recorded for the indicator since April 2014.
- Nonetheless, Thai respondents are still very positive about the long term, with the large majority, or 67% (unchanged from June) expecting Thailand to have ‘good times’ in the next five years. Meanwhile, 10% (up 2ppts) expect ‘bad times’ for Thailand, pushing the indicator to its highest for more than a year since April 2014.
- 14% (down 4ppts) of respondents said ‘now is a good time to buy’ major household items, while an increased majority (or 74%; up 7ppts) of respondents said ‘now is a bad time to buy’ major household items (the highest ever recorded for this indicator).
“ANZ-Roy Morgan Thailand Consumer Confidence has dropped markedly lower over July and there is a very real risk that domestic demand follows sentiment significantly lower.
"In the absence of positive consumer sentiment enablers, confidence has proven to be remarkably fragile, and the positive boost to sentiment the military junta enjoyed from May to August 2014 has now clearly unwound. A remarkably high 47% of respondents (up 6ppts) have indicated that their families are ‘worse off’ financially now compared to than a year ago, and 42% (up 15ppts) expect ‘bad times’ financially over the next 12 months.
"Looking ahead, we expect consumer sentiment to remain persistently downbeat, with the economy failing to gain traction and agricultural income depressed by the possibility of a protracted drought. Monetary easing alone via the interest rate channel seems insufficient to deal with this and we look for the BoT to lean on allowing baht weakness to augment these other elements to create policy space.
"Thailand has turned from the land of smiles to the land of frowns. Indeed, deep frowns that are unlikely to cheer anytime soon.”
Click to view the latest ANZ-Roy Morgan Thailand Consumer Confidence Release PDF - July 2015.
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