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L-NP support slumps amid Bronwyn Bishop travel expense ‘misconduct’ and as the ALP commits to renewable energy & ‘turn back the boats’ policy

Finding No. 6365 – This multi-mode Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted via face-to-face and SMS interviewing over the last two weekends July 18/19 & 25/26, 2015 with an Australia-wide cross-section of 3,316 Australian electors aged 18+, of all electors surveyed 3% (up 1%) did not name a party.
In late July L-NP support is down 3% to 46% cf. ALP 54% (up 3%) after Opposition Leader Bill Shorten sided with the Government on their ‘turning back the boats policy’ and committed Labor policy to ensure 50% of Australia’s energy needs are met with renewable energy by 2030. If a Federal Election were held now the ALP would win easily.

Primary support for the L-NP is down 2.5% to 39% still clearly ahead of the ALP 35.5% (up 1%). Support for other parties shows the Greens at 15% (up 1.5%) – the highest Greens vote since September 2010, Palmer United Party 1% (unchanged), Katter’s Australian Party 1.5% (unchanged), while Independents/ Others were 8% (unchanged).

This week’s Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted over the last two weekends, July 18/19 & 25/26, 2015, with an Australia-wide cross-section of 3,316 Australian electors.

Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is up 0.5pts to 91pts this week with 46.5% (up 1%) of Australians saying Australia is ‘heading in the wrong direction’ (the highest for a year since July 2014) and 37.5% (up 1.5%) saying Australia is ‘heading in the right direction’.

Analysis by Gender

Analysis by Gender shows a majority of both genders now supporting the ALP. Women: ALP 56.5% (up 2.5%) cf. L-NP 43.5% (down 2.5%); Men: ALP 51.5% (up 4%) cf. L-NP 48.5% (down 4%).

Analysis by Age group

Analysis by Age group shows the ALP still with its strongest advantage among younger Australians. 18-24yr olds heavily favour the ALP 68.5% cf. L-NP 31.5%; 25-34yr olds also heavily favour the ALP 64.5% cf. L-NP 35.5%; 35-49yr olds favour the ALP 54.5% cf. L-NP 45.5% while 50-64yr olds now slightly favour the ALP 51.5% cf. L-NP 48.5% and those aged 65+ heavily favour the L-NP 58.5% cf. ALP 41.5%.

Analysis by States

The ALP now has a two-party preferred lead in 5 Australian States. South Australia: ALP 60.5% cf. L-NP 39.5%, Victoria: ALP 58.5% cf. L-NP 41.5%, Tasmania: ALP 55% cf. L-NP 45%, Western Australia: ALP 53.5% cf. L-NP 46.5% and Queensland: ALP 51% cf. LNP 49%, while New South Wales narrowly favour the L-NP 50.5% cf. ALP 49.5%.

The Morgan Poll surveys a larger sample (including people who only use a mobile phone) than any other public opinion poll. The Morgan Poll asks Minor Party supporters which way they will vote their preferences. *News Corp’s poll does not measure or reference the PUP vote!

The Morgan Poll allocated preferences based on how people say they will vote – allocating preferences by how electors voted at the last Federal Election, as used by News Corp’s poll* shows the ALP (53.5%) cf. L-NP (46.5%) – for trends see the Morgan Poll historic data table.

Gary Morgan says:

“In late July L-NP support slumped 3% to 46% cf. ALP 54% (up 3%) on a two-party preferred basis as the travel expense ‘misconduct’ surrounding Parliamentary Speaker Bronwyn Bishop’s incorrect use of taxpayer entitlements continued to impact negatively on the Government.

“In addition, Opposition Leader Bill Shorten’s important policy announcements last week including a Labor commitment to have 50% of Australian energy produced by renewable energy by 2030 and a decision by Shorten for the ALP to adopt the Abbott Government’s successful ‘turn back the boats’ policy towards asylum seekers appeared to give the ALP a much needed boost.

“The damage Shorten suffered as a result of appearing at the Trade Union Royal Commission early in July hasn’t had a lasting impact on ALP support although it clearly had a strong negative impact on Shorten’s personal popularity as shown by two special telephone Morgan Polls last week: Abbott supported as Liberal Leader by only 13% and Shorten as ALP Leader by only 12% and Australians are evenly divided over Tony Abbott or Bill Shorten as PM – both leaders unpopular.

“The rise in ALP support came as the ALP concluded its three day national conference on Sunday with a decision to bind Labor MPs to supporting same-sex marriage in Parliament following the (likely) 2019 Federal Election.

“The Coalition Government has no alternative but to show the electorate how they will grow the economy and provide more jobs (real unemployment and underemployment was 2.32 million in June – the number needs to fall significantly). The answer is NOT a higher GST, as suggested last week by NSW Premier Mike Baird at COAG, or an increase in the Medicare levy, as suggested by Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews.”

Electors were asked: “If an election for the House of Representatives were held today – which party will receive your first preference?”

Visit the Roy Morgan Online Store to browse our range of Voter Profiles by electorate, detailed Voting Intention Demographics Reports and Most important Political Issue Reports (all 150 electorates ranked by an issue).

Finding No. 6365 – This multi-mode Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted via face-to-face and SMS interviewing over the last two weekends July 18/19 & 25/26, 2015 with an Australia-wide cross-section of 3,316 Australian electors aged 18+, of all electors surveyed 3% (up 1%) did not name a party.


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Data Tables


Morgan Poll on Federal Voting Intention - July 27, 2015

Roy Morgan GCR

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

500

±4.5

±3.9

±2.7

±1.9

1,000

±3.2

±2.7

±1.9

±1.4

1,500

±2.6

±2.2

±1.5

±1.1

2,000

±2.2

±1.9

±1.3

±1.0