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Abbott supported as Liberal Leader by only 13% and Shorten as ALP Leader by only 12%

This special telephone Morgan Poll was conducted over three nights this week, July 20-22, 2015 with an Australia-wide cross section of 587 electors.

A telephone Morgan Poll over three nights this week (July 20-22, 2015) finds:

  • Former Liberal Party Leader Malcolm Turnbull is again clearly preferred as Liberal Leader by 44% of electors (up 6% since April 21-23, 2015) well ahead of Deputy Liberal Leader Julie Bishop 15% (down 12%) and Prime Minister Tony Abbott 13% (up 1%).

  • L-NP voters also narrowly prefer Turnbull as Liberal Party Leader 32% (up 2%), ahead of Prime Minister Tony Abbott 26% (up 1%), Deputy Liberal Leader Julie Bishop 16% (down 9%) and Scott Morrison 13% (up 5%). All are now well ahead of Treasurer Joe Hockey 4% (unchanged).

  • Deputy ALP Leader Tanya Plibersek 26% (up 3%) of electors is still the preferred Labor Leader ahead of Shadow Minister for Infrastructure and Transport Anthony Albanese 19% (up 6%), Opposition Leader Bill Shorten 12% (down 9%) and former Treasurer Wayne Swan 10% (unchanged).

  • Tanya Plibersek 32% (up 2%) is also preferred amongst ALP supporters ahead of Bill Shorten 17% (down 9%), Anthony Albanese 16% (up 5%) and Wayne Swan 9% (unchanged).

  • If Mr Abbott were to resign as Prime Minister tomorrow, electors clearly prefer Malcolm Turnbull 47% (up 7%) ahead of Julie Bishop 19% (down 11%). Their support is more evenly matched amongst L-NP voters with Turnbull 37% (up 3%) preferred to Bishop 24% (down 8%) and Scott Morrison 21% (up 8%).

  • If Labor Leader Bill Shorten were to resign for any reason, Tanya Plibersek 29% (up 3%) is clearly preferred as ALP Leader ahead of Anthony Albanese 21% (up 5%) and Wayne Swan 12% (down 3%). Their support amongst ALP voters favours Plibersek 38% (up 4%) even more preferred to Albanese 20% (up 3%) and Swan 11% (down 4%).

Gary Morgan says:

“Australians aren’t fond of either major party leader - Prime Minister Tony Abbott 13% (up 1% since April) trails both former Liberal Party Leader Malcolm Turnbull 44% (up 6%) and Deputy Leader Julie Bishop 15% (down 12%) as preferred Liberal Party Leader while Opposition Leader Bill Shorten 12% (down 9%) is well behind Deputy ALP Leader Tonya Plibersek 26% (up 3%) and former ALP leadership rival Anthony Albanese 19% (up 6%) as preferred ALP Leader in the eyes of Australian electors.

“Abbott has consistently trailed Turnbull over the past few years on this measure, however, Shorten was the preferred ALP Leader as recently as January and has lost more than half of his support over the past 6 months.

“Even amongst L-NP supporters – who have traditionally favoured Abbott over both Turnbull and Bishop – Turnbull has for the second straight survey retained the most support as the preferred Liberal Party Leader 32% (up 2%) ahead of Abbott 26% (up 1%) while Bishop 16% (down 9%) has lost a great deal of support over the past few months.

“Worryingly for Shorten, Deputy ALP Leader Plibersek 32% (up 2%) is clearly the choice of ALP voters well ahead of both Shorten 17% (down 9%) and Albanese 16% (up 5%). It appears Australian electors haven’t been impressed by Shorten’s recent appearance at the Royal Commission into Trade Unions. However, whilst Abbott can be voted out of the leadership by the Liberal Party room – Shorten can’t be removed before the next election given the new rules surrounding a change of leadership adopted by the Federal ALP.”

This special telephone Morgan Poll was conducted over three nights this week, July 20-22, 2015 with an Australia-wide cross section of 587 electors.

Visit the Roy Morgan Online Store to browse our Voter Profiles by electorate, detailed Voting Intention Demographics Reports and Most important Political Issue Reports (all 150 electorates ranked by an issue).

Preferred Coalition Leader

Electors were asked: “If you were a Liberal or National Party voter and helping to choose the Coalition Leader for the next Federal Election, who would you prefer?”

Tony Abbott as Prime Minister

Analysis by Federal Voting Intention

Sep 30-Oct 2,
2014

Jan 12-13,
2015

April 21-23,
2015

July 20-22,
2015

L-NP

ALP

Greens

Ind/

Other

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Turnbull

38

36

38

44

32

56

62

32

J. Bishop

16

26

27

15

16

15

14

19

Abbott

19

14

12

13

26

4

2

13

Morrison

2

2

5

5

13

1

-

-

Joyce

3

4

3

5

4

4

6

11

Hockey

6

4

5

5

4

5

4

7

Pyne

1

2

2

1

1

1

2

2

Robb

*

*

*

*

-

-

1

2

Someone else

1

1

1

1

*

1

1

1

Can’t say

14

11

7

11

4

13

8

13

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

*Indicates support for this candidate of less than 0.5%.

Preferred Coalition Leader other than Tony Abbott

Electors who preferred Tony Abbott were then asked:

Still thinking about helping choose the Coalition Leader for the next Federal Election, who would you prefer out of: Malcolm Turnbull, Julie Bishop, Joe Hockey, Andrew Robb, Christopher Pyne, Barnaby Joyce & Scott Morrison?

The answers were added to those preferred Coalition Leader from the previous question to show preferred leaders other than Tony Abbott.

Tony Abbott as Prime Minister

Analysis by Federal Voting Intention

Sep 30-Oct 2,
2014

Jan 12-13,
2015

April 21-23,
2015

July 20-22,
2015

L-NP

ALP

Greens

Ind/

Other

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Turnbull

42

38

40

47

37

57

64

35

J. Bishop

23

32

30

19

24

15

14

23

Morrison

3

3

7

8

21

1

-

-

Joyce

4

4

4

7

7

5

6

13

Hockey

9

6

6

6

7

6

4

8

Pyne

2

3

2

2

2

1

2

5

Robb

*

*

1

*

-

-

1

2

Someone else

1

1

1

1

*

1

1

1

Can’t say

16

13

9

10

2

14

8

13

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

*Indicates support for this candidate of less than 0.5%.

Preferred Labor Leader

Electors were then asked: “If you were a Labor Party voter and helping to choose the Labor leader for the next Federal Election, who would you prefer?”

Prime Minister Tony Abbott

Analysis by Federal Voting Intention

Sep 30-Oct 2,
2014

Jan 12-13,
2015

April 21-23,
2015

July 20-22,
2015

L-NP

ALP

Greens

Ind/

Other

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Plibersek

18

18

23

26

16

32

42

21

Albanese

15

10

13

19

25

16

13

15

Shorten

21

25

21

12

10

17

6

10

Swan

10

10

10

10

11

9

15

9

Bowen

6

6

5

7

7

8

3

6

Burke

3

5

4

4

6

3

2

10

Macklin

4

5

4

4

4

2

6

2

Someone else

2

2

1

2

*

2

4

1

Can’t say

21

19

19

16

21

11

9

26

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100


Preferred Labor Leader other than Bill Shorten

Electors who preferred Bill Shorten as ALP Leader were then asked:

Still thinking about helping choose the Labor leader for the next Federal Election, who would you prefer out of: Anthony Albanese, Wayne Swan, Jenny Macklin, Chris Bowen, Tanya Plibersek or Tony Burke?

The answers were added to those preferred for Labor Leader from the previous question to show preferred leaders other than Bill Shorten.

Prime Minister Tony Abbott

Analysis by Federal Voting Intention

Sep 30-Oct 2,
2014

Jan 12-13,
2015

April 21-22,
2015

July 20-22,
2015

L-NP

ALP

Greens

Ind/

Other

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Plibersek

21

21

26

29

17

38

47

22

Albanese

19

14

16

21

27

20

13

16

Swan

14

16

15

12

13

11

16

12

Bowen

8

9

8

7

9

9

3

6

Burke

3

7

5

5

6

3

2

10

Macklin

5

7

6

4

4

3

7

2

Someone else

2

2

1

2

*

2

4

1

Can’t say

28

24

23

20

24

14

8

31

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100



For further information:

Contact

Office

Mobile

Gary Morgan:     

+61 3 9224 5213  

+61 411 129 094

Michele Levine:       

+61 3 9224 5215  

+61 411 129 093

The Morgan Poll is conducted by the ONLY Australian and New Zealand member of the Gallup International Association.

No other public opinion poll taken in Australia has this qualification.