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ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence Stutters
August 11 2015
- Finding No.
Consumer Confidence Press Release
This weekly ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating is based on 1,024 face-to-face interviews conducted Australia-wide with men and women aged 14 and over last weekend August 8/9, 2015.
ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence fell 0.4% to 112.5 this week after gaining 5.5% over the previous three weeks. While modest, the decline is somewhat disappointing given confidence has yet to regain its recent peak reached before China and Greece-related market volatility hit sentiment.
ANZ Chief Economist Warren Hogan commented:
- Households’ views of their current finances declined 2.7% last week, after reaching the highest level since the weekly survey began (in October 2008) in the previous week. While levels remain encouraging and point to an improvement in spending, we caution that this sub-index has provided an overly optimistic view of spending in recent years (Figure 4).
- Households’ views of economic conditions remains soft. Expectations of the economic outlook declined over both the next year (-1.5%) and next five years (-5.3%).
“Australians' view on the economic and financial situation remains highly bifurcated. Questions relating to the here and now and the household balance sheet are highly favourable. Sentiment towards the future, particularly the medium to long term outlook for the economy, is extremely weak. The Australian consumer remains highly vulnerable to a negative economic or financial shock.
"The outlook for ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence remains key to a sustainable uplift in consumer spending. While the bounce in June retail sales was encouraging, it reflects a strong housing market and partial boost from the small business package in the Commonwealth Budget. The boost from the Budget is likely to be temporary and will dissipate in the coming months. In addition, housing will be less stimulative to retail sales into 2016 as higher interest rates for investors and other policies aimed at limiting investor housing lending growth slow house price growth (and thereby lessen the ‘wealth effect’ on retail). This means that it will be essential for other drivers of confidence and spending – namely jobs and wages – to lift as housing tails off.”
Click to view the PDF of the ANZ-Roy Morgan Weekly Consumer Confidence Release.
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Related Research Reports
The latest Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Monthly Report is available on the Roy Morgan Online Store. It provides demographic breakdowns for Age, Sex, State, Region (Capital Cities/ Country), Generations, Lifecycle, Socio-Economic Scale, Work Status, Occupation, Home Ownership, Voting Intention, Roy Morgan Value Segments and more.
You can also view our monitor of Monthly Australian Unemployment & Under-employment Estimates.