Back To Listing

L-NP support slumps following resignation of Bronwyn Bishop as Roy Morgan Government Confidence plunges to record low

Finding No. 6387 – This multi-mode Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted via face-to-face and SMS interviewing over the last two weekends August 1/2 & 8/9, 2015 with an Australia-wide cross-section of 2,930 Australian electors aged 18+, of all electors surveyed 3% (unchanged) did not name a party.

In early August L-NP support has slumped to 43% (down 3%) cf. ALP 57% (up 3%) after controversial Speaker Bronwyn Bishop resigned following a series of extravagant travel expense claims. Liberal backbencher Tony Smith (Victoria) has today been elected as the new Speaker to replace Bishop. If a Federal Election were held now the ALP would win easily.

Primary support for the ALP has increased to 37% (up 1.5%) while L-NP support is down 2.5% to 36.5%. Support for the Greens continues to rise – now at 15.5% (up 0.5%) – the highest Greens vote for five years since August 2010, Palmer United Party 1% (unchanged), Katter’s Australian Party 1.5% (unchanged), while Independents/ Others were 8.5% (up 0.5%).

This week’s Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted over the last two weekends, August 1/2 & 8/9, 2015, with an Australia-wide cross-section of 2,930 Australian electors.

Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has dropped 5pts to a record low of 86pts this week with 48.5% (up 2%) of Australians saying Australia is ‘heading in the wrong direction’ and 34.5% (down 3%) saying Australia is ‘heading in the right direction’.

Analysis by Gender

Analysis by Gender shows a majority of both genders now supporting the ALP. Women: ALP 60.5% (up 4%) cf. L-NP 39.5% (down 4%); Men: ALP 53.5% (up 2%) cf. L-NP 46.5% (down 2%).

Analysis by Age group

Analysis by Age group shows the ALP still with its strongest advantage among younger Australians. 18-24yr olds heavily favour the ALP 67% cf. L-NP 33%; 25-34yr olds also heavily favour the ALP 63.5% cf. L-NP 36.5%; 35-49yr olds favour the ALP 59.5% cf. L-NP 40.5% while 50-64yr olds now favour the ALP 53.5% cf. L-NP 46.5% and those aged 65+ narrowly favour the L-NP 51% cf. ALP 49%.

Analysis by States

The ALP now has a two-party preferred lead in all 6 Australian States. Victoria: ALP 60.5% cf. L-NP 39.5%, South Australia: ALP 59% cf. L-NP 41%, Western Australia: ALP 57.5% cf. L-NP 42.5%, Tasmania: ALP 57% cf. L-NP 43%, Queensland: ALP 54.5% cf. LNP 45.5% and New South Wales: ALP 54.5% cf. L-NP 45.5%.

The Morgan Poll surveys a larger sample (including people who only use a mobile phone) than any other public opinion poll. The Morgan Poll asks Minor Party supporters which way they will vote their preferences. *News Corp’s poll does not measure or reference the PUP vote!

The Morgan Poll allocated preferences based on how people say they will vote – allocating preferences by how electors voted at the last Federal Election, as used by News Corp’s poll* shows the ALP (54.5%) cf. L-NP (45.5%) – for trends see the Morgan Poll historic data table.

Gary Morgan says:

“In early August L-NP support has plunged 3% to 43% cf. ALP 57% (up 3%) on a two-party preferred basis following the resignation of Speaker Bronwyn Bishop. This is the Abbott Government’s worst two-party preferred result since Tony Abbott survived an ‘almost challenge’ in early February as Parliament resumed sitting for the year. At that time the Morgan Poll showed the ALP 57.5% cf. L-NP 42.5%.

“The travel expenses scandal surrounding several Federal MPs was not the only worry for the Abbott Government last week. A widely publicised ABS unemployment release last week showed Australian ABS unemployment rising 0.2% to 6.3% (closer to the Roy Morgan real unemployment rate of 8.7% for July) and substantial falls on the Australian All Ordinaries Index last week wiped billions of dollars off the markets – and in particular Australia’s ‘Big Four’ Banks. The Australian All Ordinaries Index closed at 5,681.90pts on Tuesday and fell by more than 200pts (-3.7%) to close last week at 5,472.30. There has since been a slight recovery in markets today.

“The worrying trends of rising unemployment and falling share-markets have clearly impacted strongly on Australian electors with the Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating plunging to a record low of 86 (down 5pts) in the past fortnight as an increasing number of Australians, 48.5% (up 2%) say Australia is ‘heading in the wrong direction’.”

Electors were asked: “If an election for the House of Representatives were held today – which party will receive your first preference?”

Visit the Roy Morgan Online Store to browse our range of Voter Profiles by electorate, detailed Voting Intention Demographics Reports and Most important Political Issue Reports (all 150 electorates ranked by an issue).

Finding No. 6387 – This multi-mode Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted via face-to-face and SMS interviewing over the last two weekends August 1/2 & 8/9, 2015 with an Australia-wide cross-section of 2,930 Australian electors aged 18+, of all electors surveyed 3% (unchanged) did not name a party.


For further information:

Contact

Office

Mobile

Gary Morgan:

+61 3 9224 5213

+61 411 129 094

Michele Levine:

+61 3 9224 5215

+61 411 129 093


Data Tables


Morgan Poll on Federal Voting Intention - August 10, 2015

Roy Morgan GCR

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

500

±4.5

±3.9

±2.7

±1.9

1,000

±3.2

±2.7

±1.9

±1.4

1,500

±2.6

±2.2

±1.5

±1.1

2,000

±2.2

±1.9

±1.3

±1.0