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National support jumps ahead of a potential Labour/Greens alliance

Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?” This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile telephone, with a NZ wide cross-section of 892 electors in August 2015. Of all electors surveyed 5.5% (unchanged) didn’t name a party.

During August support for National jumped 7.5% to 50.5% now well ahead of a potential Labour/Greens alliance 38% (down 7%) according to the latest Roy Morgan New Zealand Poll. Support for the major parties in August has returned to close to the levels of support in June. National 50.5% cf. 49.5% (in June) and Labour/ Greens 38% cf. 39% (in June) after a poor result for the Key Government in July caused by rising worries about Economic issues – including the steep fall in the price of milk powder and as the New Zealand Dollar plunged to six year lows in early July.

If a NZ Election were held now the latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows that the National Party would easily be returned to power.

Support for the National partners was unchanged with the Maori Party 1.5% (unchanged), Act NZ 0.5% (unchanged) and United Future 0% (unchanged).

Of the three Parliamentary Opposition parties - Labour’s support is now at 27% (down 5%), Greens 11% (down 2%) although support for NZ First increased to 8% (up 1%). Of the parties outside Parliament the Internet-Mana Party alliance is at 0.5% (up 0.5%), the Conservative Party of NZ is 0% (down 1.5%) and support for Independent/ Others is 1% (down 0.5%).

The latest NZ Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is 120pts (up 2pts) in August. An increasing majority of NZ electors 54% (up 3%) say NZ is ‘heading in the right direction’ compared to 34% (up 1%) that say NZ is ‘heading in the wrong direction’. However, NZ Government Confidence is still far higher than in Australia – Australian Government Confidence last week was at only 86pts (a record low).

Gary Morgan, Executive Chairman, Roy Morgan Research, says:

“Prime Minister John Key’s National (50.5%, up 7.5% since July) has regained the lead from a potential Labour/Greens alliance 38% (down 5%) following controversial remarks regarding the booming Auckland housing market by Labour housing spokesperson Phil Twyford in July. The Key Government’s strength is backed up by a rise in Roy Morgan Government Confidence 120pts (up 2pts) which remains far higher in New Zealand than ‘across the ditch’ in Australia - Australian Government Confidence is now at a record low 86.

“Twyford appeared to blame the rapid increase on housing prices in Auckland on Chinese buyers according to housing sales data supplied by an unidentified firm. Twyford released data that showed nearly 40% of housing purchase transactions in Auckland between February and April 2015, of 4,000 sales recorded in the data, were by ethnic Chinese. The latest New Zealand Census data from 2013 shows ethnic Chinese comprise around 10% of the Auckland population.

“Government Housing Minister Nick Smith rubbished Twyford’s claims pointing out that the data ‘comes from an unidentified source and covers only one of many real estate agencies’ as well as being ‘based on surnames rather than whether buyers are residents or citizens’. Twyford was also accused of racist ‘dog-whistling’ for airing the claims.

“However, despite this month’s strong increase in support, it’s not all good news for National. Economic worries about the slowdown in New Zealand’s largest export market – China are a concern for many in New Zealand and this is reflected in the ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence Rating falling to 109.8 in August – the lowest since June 2012. Consumer Confidence has now fallen for four straight months.”

Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?” This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile telephone, with a NZ wide cross-section of 892 electors in August 2015. Of all electors surveyed 5.5% (unchanged) didn’t name a party.


Roy Morgan New Zealand Interactive Voting Charts

These interactive charts allow a deeper look at voting patterns in New Zealand over varying timeframes and provide election observers with the ability to pinpoint key turning points for the political parties.

View interactive New Zealand Election charts here.

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Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

1,000

±3.2

±2.7

±1.9

±1.4

1,500

±2.6

±2.2

±1.5

±1.1

2,000

±2.2

±1.9

±1.3

±1.0