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ANZ-Roy Morgan Thailand Consumer Confidence Rose Firmly in August
August 26 2015
- Finding No.
Consumer Confidence Press Release
The monthly ANZ-Roy Morgan Thailand Consumer Confidence Index is based on 1,000 telephone interviews conducted throughout Thailand. Men and women aged 14 and over were randomly selected during the month of August 2015.
Note: The survey was completed four days before the 17 August bomb blast.
ANZ-Roy Morgan Thailand Consumer Confidence rose 5.5pts to 103.8 in August – breaking six consecutive months of declines. However, it must be noted the interviews were completed prior to the Bangkok bombing incident on 17 August. In addition, consumer confidence is well below its long-term average of 111.3 and a significant 22.5 pts lower than August 2014 (126.3).
The key driver behind increased consumer confidence during August was higher certainty among Thai respondents about their buying decisions for major household items.
ANZ Chief Economist South Asia, ASEAN & Pacific, Glenn Maguire said:
- In terms of personal finances, 22% (down 2ppts from July) of respondents said their families are ‘better off’ financially than the same time last year. The figure marks the lowest value for the indicator since June 2014. On the contrary, 43% (down 4ppts from July) said their families are ‘worse off’ financially than a year ago.
- 44% (up 2ppts from July) of respondents said they expect their families to be ‘better off’ financially in a year’s time, compared to 21% (down 1ppt) who expect to be ‘worse off’ financially.
- When thinking of future economic conditions in Thailand, 40% (up 1ppt from July) expect the country to have ‘good times’ financially over the next 12 months compared to 37% (down 5ppts from July) who expect ‘bad times’ financially.
- However, Thai respondents are still very positive about the long term, with the large majority of respondents, or 68% (up 1ppt from July), expecting Thailand to have ‘good times’ during the next five years and only 9% (down 1ppt) expecting ‘bad times’ for Thailand.
- 22% (up 8ppts from July) of respondents said ‘now is a good time to buy’ major household items compared to the majority, or 67% (down 7ppts from July) of respondents, who said ‘now is a bad time to buy’ major household items.
“ANZ-Roy Morgan Thailand Consumer Confidence improved in August, a dynamic that is likely to be overwhelmed by the tragic 17 August bomb blast in Bangkok whose impact will be captured in the September survey.
"ANZ-Roy Morgan Thailand Consumer Confidence is likely to be one of the first channels through which economic and political frailties in the Thai economy manifest themselves. A likely loss of momentum in the tourism sector will present a new downside risk to economic activity.
"The political overlay also remains unhelpful with the upcoming draft of a new constitution possibly deepening political divisions. Voting by members of the National Reform Council will take place from 5-7 September. In addition, Thailand’s recent cabinet reshuffle is also likely to reinforce perceptions that the economic momentum of the Junta’s reform program is losing traction.
"In our view, Somkid Jatusripitak (the new Deputy Prime Minister) and Veerathai Santiprabhob (the incoming Bank of Thailand Governor) are well equipped to deal with the significant challenges Thailand is now facing. Both of them, however, will urgently need to unlock limited policy space and create room for manoeuvre by identifying fiscal and monetary synergies.”
Click to view the latest ANZ-Roy Morgan Thailand Consumer Confidence Release PDF - August 2015.
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The latest Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Monthly Report is available on the Roy Morgan Online Store. It provides demographic breakdowns for Age, Sex, State, Region (Capital Cities/ Country), Generations, Lifecycle, Socio-Economic Scale, Work Status, Occupation, Home Ownership, Voting Intention, Roy Morgan Value Segments and more.
You can also view our monitor of Monthly Australian Unemployment & Under-employment Estimates.