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L-NP support increases after unions attack credibility of Trade Union Commissioner Dyson Heydon and the Abbott Government announces new policies on climate change and same-sex marriage

Finding No. 6419 – This multi-mode Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted via face-to-face and SMS interviewing over the last two weekends August 15/16 & 22/23, 2015 with an Australia-wide cross-section of 3,174 Australian electors aged 18+, of all electors surveyed 2% (down 1%) did not name a party.
In mid-August L-NP support has jumped to 45.5% (up 2.5%) cf. ALP 54.5% (down 2.5%) following extensive union attacks on the credibility of Trade Union Royal Commission head Justice Dyson Heydon and following key Government announcements on policies involving climate change and same-sex marriage. However, if a Federal Election were held now the ALP would still win easily.

Primary support for the L-NP has increased to 38.5% (up 2%) while ALP support is down 1% to 36%. Support for the Greens has fallen to 14% (down 1.5%), Palmer United Party 1.5% (up 0.5%), Katter’s Australian Party 1.5% (unchanged), while Independents/ Others were 8.5% (unchanged).

This week’s Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted over the last two weekends, August 15/16 & 22/23, 2015, with an Australia-wide cross-section of 3,174 Australian electors.

Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has risen 9.5pts from a record low to 95.5pts this week with 44.5% (down 4%) of Australians saying Australia is ‘heading in the wrong direction’ and 40% (up 5.5%) saying Australia is ‘heading in the right direction’.

Analysis by Gender

Analysis by Gender shows a majority of both genders supporting the ALP. Women: ALP 55% (down 5.5%) cf. L-NP 45% (up 5.5%); Men: ALP 53.5% (unchanged) cf. L-NP 46.5% (unchanged).

Analysis by Age group

Analysis by Age group shows the ALP still with its strongest advantage among younger Australians. 18-24yr olds heavily favour the ALP 67% cf. L-NP 33%; 25-34yr olds also heavily favour the ALP 65.5% cf. L-NP 34.5%; 35-49yr olds favour the ALP 57% cf. L-NP 43% while 50-64yr olds narrowly favour the ALP 51% cf. L-NP 49% and those aged 65+ easily favour the L-NP 59% cf. ALP 41%.

Analysis by States

The ALP now has a two-party preferred lead in 5 Australian States. Victoria: ALP 57.5% cf. L-NP 42.5%, Western Australia: ALP 57.5% cf. L-NP 42.5%, Queensland: ALP 55.5% cf. LNP 44.5%, Tasmania: ALP 55% cf. L-NP 45%, South Australia: ALP 54.5% cf. L-NP 45.5%, while  New South Wales is the only State which favours the L-NP 51.5% cf. ALP 48.5%.

The Morgan Poll surveys a larger sample (including people who only use a mobile phone) than any other public opinion poll. The Morgan Poll asks Minor Party supporters which way they will vote their preferences. *News Corp’s poll does not measure or reference the PUP vote!

The Morgan Poll allocated preferences based on how people say they will vote – allocating preferences by how electors voted at the last Federal Election, as used by News Corp’s poll* shows the ALP (53.5%) cf. L-NP (46.5%) – for trends see the Morgan Poll historic data table.

Gary Morgan says:

“In late August L-NP support has increased 2.5% to 45.5% cf. ALP 54.5% (down 2.5%) on a two-party preferred basis after the Government moved on from the expenses issues as both sides have been shown to be misusing their travel allowances and the issue has quickly been forgotten. Dominating the headlines last week were the attacks by the unions on the credibility of Justice Dyson Heydon, the Commissioner of the Trade Union Royal Commission (TURC). Today’s Morgan Poll shows the union attacks on Heydon’s credibility have had little impact on Australian electors.

“In addition to the media interest in the TURC the Abbott Government announced policies in two key areas – climate change and same-sex marriage. The Government is committing to a reduction in Australia’s carbon dioxide emissions by a large 26-28% below 2005 levels by 2030. This is a comparable carbon dioxide cut to other developed world economies including Japan (25% cut), NZ (30% cut), Canada (30% cut) and the USA (also a 26-28% cut).The Government claims attempting to cut carbon dioxide emissions by more would cause a great deal of job losses throughout the Australian economy and isn’t economically responsible.

“As well as the new climate change policy the Government has also committed to letting the Australian people decide on the issue of same-sex marriage – rather than the politicians. The Government’s policy at the next Federal Election will be to call for either a plebiscite or a referendum during the next term of Parliament to settle the issue once and for all.

“Strengthening support for the L-NP over the past fortnight has been matched by a strong rise in the Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating – up 9.5pts to 95.5 and off a record low of 86 recorded in early August. The large share-market falls seen late last week (Thursday August 20 & Friday August 21), and again today (Monday August 24) have seen the All Ordinaries Index fall from 5,379.80 (Wednesday August 19) to 5,066.00 this afternoon – a fall of 313.8pts (down 5.8% in three days) suggest there are likely to be challenging times ahead.

“The more economic turmoil Australia faces whether from overseas and increasing concerns about China’s economic situation or internally with rising job losses – BlueScope Steel has today notified the market up to 5,000 jobs are threatened with the potential closure of the Port Kembla steelworks south of Wollongong – the more certain it is that the next election will be fought on the economic credibility of the two major political parties.”

Electors were asked: “If an election for the House of Representatives were held today – which party will receive your first preference?”

Visit the Roy Morgan Online Store to browse our range of Voter Profiles by electorate, detailed Voting Intention Demographics Reports and Most important Political Issue Reports (all 150 electorates ranked by an issue).

Finding No. 6419 – This multi-mode Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted via face-to-face and SMS interviewing over the last two weekends August 15/16 & 22/23, 2015 with an Australia-wide cross-section of 3,174 Australian electors aged 18+, of all electors surveyed 2% (down 1%) did not name a party.


For further information:

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Gary Morgan:

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Data Tables


Morgan Poll on Federal Voting Intention - August 24, 2015

Roy Morgan GCR

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

500

±4.5

±3.9

±2.7

±1.9

1,000

±3.2

±2.7

±1.9

±1.4

1,500

±2.6

±2.2

±1.5

±1.1

2,000

±2.2

±1.9

±1.3

±1.0