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Popular Premiers Mike Baird & Daniel Andrews have large leads in NSW & Victoria while other States except Tasmania are close

The SMS Morgan Poll on State voting intention and preferred Premiers was conducted between August 28-31, 2015 with a cross-section of 5,079 Australian electors including 1,209 New South Wales electors, 1,123 Victorian electors, 877 Queensland electors, 605 Western Australian electors, 625 South Australian electors and 314 Tasmanian electors.

The L-NP leads strongly in NSW: L-NP 57% cf. ALP 43% and the ALP holds the same large lead in Victoria: ALP 57% cf. L-NP 43% on two-party preferred bases in late August, according to this month’s SMS Morgan Poll on State voting intention.

State voting intention was conducted in late August with a representative cross-section of 5,079 Australian electors.

NEW SOUTH WALES: L-NP would win an Election easily

2PP: L-NP 57% (up 1% since July 31 – August 2, 2015) cf. ALP 43% (down 1%).

Primary vote: L-NP 49% (down 0.5%), ALP 25% (down 3.5%), Greens 17.5% (up 2%), Christian Democrats 3% (up 1%) and Independents/ Others 5.5% (up 1%).

Better Premier: Premier Mike Baird (Liberal) v Luke Foley (ALP):
Mr. Baird 72% (down 0.5%) cf. Mr. Foley 28% (up 0.5%); Lead to Mr. Baird 44% (down 1%).

New South Wales real unemployment is now 8.7% (down 1.3% since April - May 2015) and under-employment is 8% (up 0.4%). This means total New South Wales unemployment & under-employment is 16.7% (down 0.9%). (Interviewed June - July 2015).

Last New South Wales State Election was held on Saturday March 28, 2015


VICTORIA: ALP would win an Election easily

2PP: ALP 57% (up 0.5% since July 31 – August 2, 2015) cf. L-NP 43% (down 0.5%).

Primary vote: ALP 39% (down 2%), L-NP 35.5% (down 2.5%); Greens 16.5% (up 2.5%), Family First 3% (up 1.5%), Country Alliance 1% (up 0.5%) and Independents/ Others 5% (unchanged).

Better Premier: Premier Daniel Andrews (ALP) v Matthew Guy (Liberal):
Mr. Andrews 61% (down 3%) cf. Mr. Guy 39% (up 3%); Lead to Mr. Andrews 22% (down 6%).

Victorian real unemployment is now 8.3% (down 0.9% since April - May 2015) and under-employment is 7.5% (down 2.1%). This means total Victorian unemployment & under-employment is 15.8% (down 3%). (Interviewed June – July 2015).

Victorian State Election is due to be held in November 2018.


QUEENSLAND: Election would be too close to call

2PP: ALP 52% (up 1% since July 31 – August 2, 2015) cf. LNP 48% (down 1%).  Female electors: ALP 56% (up 1.5%) cf. LNP 44% (down 1.5%). Male electors: LNP 51.5% (down 1.5%) cf. ALP 48.5% (up 1.5%).

Primary vote electors: LNP 41.5% (up 0.5%), ALP 38.5% (up 2.5%), Greens 12% (down 1%), Katter’s Australian Party 3% (down 1%), Family First 0.5% (down 1%), Independents/ Others 4.5% (unchanged). Female electors: ALP 43.5% (up 4%), LNP 39% (up 3%), Greens 11.5% (down 1.5%), Katter’s Australian Party 1.5% (down 2.5%), Family First 1% (down 1.5%), Independents/ Others 3.5% (down 1.5%). Male electors: LNP 44% (down 2.5%), ALP 33.5% (up 1.5%), Greens 12% (down 1%), Katter’s Australian Party 4.5% (up 0.5%), Family First 0.5% (unchanged), Independents/ Others 5.5% (up 1.5%).

Better Premier: Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk (ALP) v Lawrence Springborg (LNP) electors:
Ms. Palaszczuk 62.5% (down 1.5%) cf. Mr. Springborg 37.5% (up 1.5%); Lead to Ms Palaszczuk 25% (down 3%). Female electors: Ms. Palaszczuk 66% (down 7%) cf. Mr. Springborg 34% (up 7%). Lead to Ms. Palaszczuk 32% (down 14%). Male electors: Ms. Palaszczuk 58% (up 3%) cf. Mr. Springborg 42% (down 3%). Lead to Ms. Palaszczuk 16% (up 6%).

Queensland real unemployment is now 9% (down 3.7% since April – May 2015) and under-employment is 9.5% (up 0.7%). This means total Queensland unemployment & under-employment is 18.5% (down 3%). (Interviewed June– July 2015).

Queensland State Election is due to be held in early 2018.


WESTERN AUSTRALIA: Election would be too close to call

2PP: L-NP 50% (up 1.5% since July 31 – August 2, 2015) cf. ALP 50% (down 1.5%).

Primary vote: Liberal 35% (up 0.5%), ALP 34% (up 1%), WA Nationals 7% (up 1.5%), Greens 15% (down 2%), Christians 1.5% (down 1%), and Independents/ Others 7.5% (unchanged).

Better Premier: Premier Colin Barnett (Liberal) v Mark McGowan (ALP):
Mr. McGowan 58% (down 0.5%) cf. Mr. Barnett 42% (up 0.5%); Lead to Mr McGowan 16% (down 1%).

Western Australian real unemployment is now 9.3% (down 0.5% since March - May 2015) and under-employment is 8% (up 1.5%). This means total Western Australian unemployment & under-employment is 17.3% (up 1%). (Interviewed May – July 2015).

Western Australian State Election is due to be held in March 2017.


SOUTH AUSTRALIA: Election would be too close to call

2PP: ALP 50.5% (down 0.5% since July 31 – August 2, 2015) cf. L-NP 49.5% (up 0.5%).

Primary vote: L-NP 39.5% (unchanged), ALP 33.5% (down 0.5%), Greens 14% (unchanged), Family First 5% (up 0.5%), and Independents/ Others 8% (unchanged).

Better Premier: Premier Jay Weatherill (ALP) v Steven Marshall (Liberal):
Mr. Weatherill 51% (up 4%) cf. Mr. Marshall 49% (down 4%); Lead to Mr Weatherill 2% (up 8%).

South Australian real unemployment is now 11.5% (up 0.5% since March – May 2015) and under-employment is 9.3% (down 1.3%). This means total South Australian unemployment & under-employment is 20.8% (down 0.8%). (Interviewed May – July 2015).

South Australian State Election is due to be held in March 2018.


TASMANIA: ALP would win Election

2PP: ALP 55% (up 5.5% since July 31 – August 2, 2015) cf. Liberals 45% (down 5.5%) Estimate: 2PP vote is not applicable to the Tasmanian lower house which uses the Hare-Clark proportional voting system.

Primary vote: Liberals 38% (down 6%), ALP 35.5% (up 4.5%), Greens 21.5% (up 1.5%) and Independents/ Others 5% (unchanged).

Better Premier: Premier Will Hodgman (Liberal) v Bryan Green (ALP):
Mr. Hodgman 57% (down 7%); Mr. Green 43% (up 7%); Lead to Mr Hodgman 14% (down 14%).

Tasmanian real unemployment is now 12% (down 1.8% since March – May 2015) and under-employment is 8.0% (up 1%). This means total Tasmanian unemployment & under-employment is 20.0% (down 0.8%). (Interviewed May - July 2015).

Tasmanian State Election is due to be held before December 31, 2018.


Gary Morgan, Executive Chairman, Roy Morgan Research, says:

“Today’s special SMS State Morgan Poll conducted around Australia in late August shows New South Wales Premier Mike Baird maintains a strong lead with a small increase in support: L-NP 57% (up 1% since late July/early August) cf. ALP 43% (down 1%). Baird’s lead as Australia’s most popular State Premier is down slightly: Baird 72% (down 0.5%) cf. Opposition Leader Luke Foley 28% (up 0.5%).

“In Victoria the nine-month honeymoon period continues for the Labor Government with the ALP 57% (up 0.5% since late July/early August) still well ahead of the L-NP 43% (down 0.5%). However, Premier Daniel Andrews’ strong lead as ‘Better Premier’ has fallen: Andrews 61% (down 3%) cf. Opposition Leader Matthew Guy 39% (up 3%).

“Premier Daniel Andrews was smart to agree that he would support the China-Australia Free Trade Agreement (ChAFTA) – ‘The Chinese free trade agreement is good news for Victorian jobs and I support it’ said Andrews. Andrews’ support for ChAFTA helps to negate his poor image amongst business owners after immediately being elected announcing two extra public holidays (Easter Sunday and Grand Final Day eve) while Victoria has massive unemployment and under-employment (15.8%) which is causing many families economic hard times. A special telephone Morgan Poll last week shows that more Australians agree the ChAFTA is a good thing (40%) than not (31%).

“In Queensland the ALP Government still has a narrow lead: ALP 52% (up 1% since late July/early August) cf. LNP 48% (down 1%) while Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk’s lead has slightly decreased as ‘Better Premier’: Ms. Palaszczuk 62.5% (down 1.5%) cf. Opposition Leader Lawrence Springborg 37.5% (up 1.5%).

“In Western Australia the Opposition has lost its small lead with the L-NP 50% (up 1.5% since late July/early August) now level with the ALP 50% (down 1.5%) however Opposition Leader Mark McGowan 58% (down 0.5%) is still clearly regarded as the ‘Better Premier’ in the West over Premier Colin Barnett 42% (up 0.5%).

“In South Australia the ALP Government has a narrow advantage: ALP 50.5% (down 0.5% since late July/early August) cf. L-NP 49.5% (up 0.5%) and Premier Jay Weatherill 51% (up 4%) has regained his lead as ‘Better Premier’ over Opposition Leader Steven Marshall 49% (down 4%). In Tasmania the ALP 55% (up 5.5% since late July/early August) has surged ahead of the Liberal Government 45% (down 5.5%) while support has also dropped substantially for Liberal Premier Will Hodgman 57% (down 7%) cf. Opposition Leader Bryan Green 43% (up 7%) as ‘Better Premier’.”


For the poll-watchers:

Electors were asked: “If a State Election for NSW/ Victoria/ Queensland/ WA/ SA/ Tasmania were being held today — which party would receive your first preference?” Electors were then asked: “Thinking of (Premier) and (Opposition Leader). In your opinion, who would make the better Premier?”

The SMS Morgan Poll on State voting intention and preferred Premiers was conducted between August 28-31, 2015 with a cross-section of 5,079 Australian electors including 1,209 New South Wales electors, 1,123 Victorian electors, 877 Queensland electors, 605 Western Australian electors, 625 South Australian electors and 314 Tasmanian electors.


For further information:

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Gary Morgan:

+61 3 9224 5213

+61 411 129 094

Michele Levine:

+61 3 9224 5215

+61 411 129 093



Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

500

±4.5

±3.9

±2.7

±1.9

1,000

±3.2

±2.7

±1.9

±1.4

1,500

±2.6

±2.2

±1.5

±1.1

2,000

±2.2

±1.9

±1.3

±1.0