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L-NP (45%) well behind ALP (55%) on two-party preferred basis as Government Confidence down 5.5pts to 90, Greens at record high - 16.5%

Finding No. 6446 – This multi-mode Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted via face-to-face and SMS interviewing over the last two weekends August 29/30 & September 5/6, 2015 with an Australia-wide cross-section of 2,653 Australian electors aged 18+, of all electors surveyed 2% (unchanged) did not name a party.
In early September L-NP support is virtually unchanged at 45% (down 0.5%) cf. ALP 55% (up 0.5%) following last week’s poor Australian GDP result (only 0.2% growth in the June Quarter 2015), and falls in the Aussie Dollar (below 70 US cents) and Australian share-markets (down 4%). If a Federal Election were held now the ALP would win easily.

Primary support for the L-NP has decreased to 36.5% (down 2%) while ALP support is down 0.5% to 35.5%. Support for the Greens has risen to a new record high of 16.5% (up 2.5%), Palmer United Party is 1% (down 0.5%), Katter’s Australian Party 1.5% (unchanged), while Independents/ Others are at 9% (up 0.5%).

This week’s Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted over the last two weekends, August 29/30 & September 5/6, 2015, with an Australia-wide cross-section of 2,653 Australian electors.

Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has fallen 5.5pts to 90pts this week with 46.5% (up 2%) of Australians saying Australia is ‘heading in the wrong direction’ and only 36.5% (down 3.5%) saying Australia is ‘heading in the right direction’.

Analysis by Gender

Analysis by Gender shows a majority of both genders supporting the ALP. Women: ALP 56.5% (up 1.5%) cf. L-NP 43.5% (down 1.5%); Men: ALP 53.5% (unchanged) cf. L-NP 46.5% (unchanged).

Analysis by Age group

Analysis by Age group shows the ALP still with its strongest advantage among young family aged Australians (aged 25-34). 18-24yr olds favour the ALP 56.5% cf. L-NP 43.5%; 25-34yr olds most heavily favour the ALP 66% cf. L-NP 34%; 35-49yr olds favour the ALP 57% cf. L-NP 43% while 50-64yr olds favour the ALP 54.5% cf. L-NP 45.5% and those aged 65+ easily favour the L-NP 55.5% cf. ALP 44.5%.

Analysis by States

The ALP now has a two-party preferred lead in all Australian States. Tasmania: ALP 61.5% cf. L-NP 38.5%, Victoria: ALP 59% cf. L-NP 41%, South Australia: ALP 57.5% cf. L-NP 42.5%, New South Wales: ALP 53% cf. L-NP 47%, Queensland: ALP 52% cf. LNP 48% and Western Australia: ALP 51% cf. L-NP 49%.

The Morgan Poll surveys a larger sample (including people who only use a mobile phone) than any other public opinion poll. The Morgan Poll asks Minor Party supporters which way they will vote their preferences. *News Corp’s poll does not measure or reference the PUP vote!

The Morgan Poll allocated preferences based on how people say they will vote – allocating preferences by how electors voted at the last Federal Election, as used by News Corp’s poll* shows the ALP (55.5%) cf. L-NP (44.5%) – for trends see the Morgan Poll historic data table.

Gary Morgan says:

“In early September L-NP support is virtually unchanged at 45% (down 0.5%) cf. ALP 55% (up 0.5%) on a two-party preferred basis. However, Roy Morgan Government Confidence has fallen to 90pts (down 5.5pts) with only 36.5% (down 3.5%) of Australians saying Australia is ‘heading in the right direction’ compared to 46.5% (up 2%) that say Australia is ‘heading in the wrong direction’.

“The fall in Roy Morgan Government Confidence is not surprising given a number of negative economic indicators last week. The ABS released Australian GDP growth figures for the June Quarter 2015 showing the Australian economy grew by only 0.2% in the three months to June 2015 and by only 2% over the year to June. This is the slowest growth rate since the March Quarter 2011.

“In addition to poor growth figures, the Australian All Ordinaries share index dropped by over 4% last week. After beginning last week at 5,274.70 the All Ordinaries closed the week at 5,060.80 – a drop of 213.9pts (-4.1%). Following the downtrend in the Australian share-markets was a continuing fall in the Australian Dollar which has now fallen below 70 US cents for the first time in over six years since early 2009.

“However, what should be of the greatest concern to the Abbott Government as it faces re-election in the next 12 months is Australia’s ‘army’ of unemployed and under-employed. Last week’s Roy Morgan August unemployment (9.2% - 1.18 million) and under-employment (7.4% - 944,000) estimates show there are still more than 2.11 million Australians (16.6%) looking for a job or looking for a new job. This figure remains far too high and is the biggest challenge facing the Government as it deals with the end of the mining boom and the imminent closure of the Australian car manufacturing industry over the next two years.

“Although two-party preferred voting intention is barely changed this week, falls for both of the major party primary votes – L-NP 36.5% (down 2%) and ALP 35.5% (down 0.5%) shows voters are looking for alternatives. This is clearly demonstrated by the increased support for the Greens under new leader Richard Di Natale – now at a record high 16.5% (up 2.5%)."


Electors were asked: "If an election for the House of Representatives were held today – which party will receive your first preference?”

Visit the Roy Morgan Online Store to browse our range of Voter Profiles by electorate, detailed Voting Intention Demographics Reports and Most important Political Issue Reports (all 150 electorates ranked by an issue).

Finding No. 6446 – This multi-mode Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted via face-to-face and SMS interviewing over the last two weekends August 29/30 & September 5/6, 2015 with an Australia-wide cross-section of 2,653 Australian electors aged 18+, of all electors surveyed 2% (unchanged) did not name a party.

For further information:

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Data Tables


Morgan Poll on Federal Voting Intention - September 7, 2015

Morgan Poll on Federal Voting Intention - September 7, 2015

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

500

±4.5

±3.9

±2.7

±1.9

1,000

±3.2

±2.7

±1.9

±1.4

1,500

±2.6

±2.2

±1.5

±1.1

2,000

±2.2

±1.9

±1.3

±1.0