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New Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull gets immediate mandate from Australian electors as Better PM: Turnbull 70% cf. Shorten 24%

This special Snap SMS Morgan Poll was conducted today, September 15, 2015, with an Australia-wide cross section of 1,204 electors.

New Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull has received an immediate mandate from Australian electors as Better PM: Malcolm Turnbull 70% cf. 24% Opposition Leader Bill Shorten with 6% of electors indicating either someone else, neither candidate or they couldn’t say according to a special Snap SMS Morgan Poll conducted this afternoon with 1,204 Australian electors.

Turnbull leads all key Demographics

Analysis by Gender

Men: Turnbull 72% cf. Shorten 23%. Lead to Mr. Turnbull 49%;

Women: Turnbull 67% cf. Shorten 24%. Lead to Mr. Turnbull 43%.

Analysis by Party – Turnbull leads among L-NP, ALP, Greens & Others supporters

L-NP supporters: Turnbull 86% cf. Shorten 7%. Lead to Mr. Turnbull 79%;

ALP supporters: Turnbull 50% cf. Shorten 44%. Lead to Mr. Turnbull 6%;

Greens supporters: Turnbull 57% cf. Shorten 38%. Lead to Mr. Turnbull 19%;

Ind/ Others supporters: Turnbull 68% cf. Shorten 29%. Lead to Mr. Turnbull 39%.

Analysis by State – Turnbull leads clearly across all States & Territories

NSW: Turnbull 72% cf. Shorten 19%. Lead to Mr. Turnbull 53%;

Victoria: Turnbull 69% cf. Shorten 27%. Lead to Mr. Turnbull 42%;

Queensland: Turnbull 69% cf. Shorten 24%. Lead to Mr. Turnbull 45%;

WA: Turnbull 76% cf. Shorten 20%. Lead to Mr. Turnbull 56%;

SA: Turnbull 67% cf. Shorten 26%. Lead to Mr. Turnbull 41%;

Tasmania: Turnbull 65% cf. Shorten 34%. Lead to Mr. Turnbull 31%;

ACT: Turnbull 61% cf. Shorten 30%. Lead to Mr. Turnbull 31%.

Gary Morgan says:

“Australian electors have given a massive mandate to new Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull on his first day as Prime Minister – preferring Turnbull 70% cf. 24% Opposition Leader Bill Shorten in a special snap SMS Morgan Poll conducted this afternoon on who Australian electors regard as the Better PM.

“Turnbull leads clearly amongst both genders, across all States & Territories and leads Shorten across supporters of both major parties. L-NP supporters have given Turnbull a huge show of support: Turnbull 86% cf. Shorten 7%. Even more remarkably, a majority of ALP supporters say Turnbull is the Better PM: Turnbull 50% cf. 44% ALP Leader Shorten. Greens supporters have also swung behind the new Prime Minister: Turnbull 57% cf. Shorten 38%.

“Today’s result places immediate pressure on Opposition Leader Bill Shorten over the coming few days as electors in the West Australian seat of Canning get set to cast their vote on Australia’s new Malcolm Turnbull-led Government – the Coalition should 'walk it in' in the Canning by-election.

“The new Malcolm Turnbull-led Government must now tell the electorate how they will reverse the recent decline in Australia’s GDP growth (only 0.2% in June Quarter 2015).

"In addition real unemployment and under-employment (a total of 16.6% (2.12 million Australians) were either unemployed or under-employed in August 2015) needs to be significantly reduced while the cash economy, wages rorts (as exposed by the recent 7-Eleven & United Petroleum scandals) and union/employer corruption need to be the top priorities in establishing ‘a fair days pay for a fair days work’.”


Better Prime Minister: Turnbull v Shorten

Electors were asked: “Thinking of Mr. Malcolm Turnbull and Mr. Bill Shorten. In your opinion, who would make the better Prime Minister – Mr. Turnbull or Mr. Shorten?” 

Prime Minister Tony Abbott v  Bill Shorten

PM Malcolm Turnbull
v Bill Shorten

Oct
2013

June
2014

Oct
2014

Jan
2015

Apr
2015

July 20-22,
2015

Sep 15,
2015

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Prime Minister Abbott/ Turnbull

40

38

44

41

44

42

70

Shorten

36

43

37

43

39

41

24

Abbott/ Turnbull lead

4

(5)

7

(2)

5

1

46

Other/Neither/Can’t say

24

19

19

16

17

17

6

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100



Electors 18+

Analysis by Sex & Age

Sep 15,
2015

Men

Women

18-24

25-34

35-49

50-64

65+

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Prime Minister

Turnbull

70

72

67

61

65

72

71

75

Shorten

24

23

24

35

29

23

20

20

Turnbull lead

46

49

43

26

36

49

51

55

Other/Neither/Can’t say

6

5

9

4

6

5

9

5

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100



 

Electors 18+

Analysis by Federal Voting Intention

Sep 15,
2015

L-NP

ALP

Greens

Ind/
Others

Can’t
say

%

%

%

%

%

%

Prime Minister

Turnbull

70

86

50

57

68

71

Shorten

24

7

44

38

29

15

Turnbull lead

46

79

6

19

39

56

Other/Neither/Can’t say

6

7

6

5

3

14

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100


This special Snap SMS Morgan Poll was conducted today, September 15, 2015, with an Australia-wide cross section of 1,204 electors.

Visit the Roy Morgan Online Store to browse our Voter Profiles by electorate, detailed Voting Intention Demographics Reports and Most important Political Issue Reports (all 150 electorates ranked by an issue).


For further information:

Contact

Office

Mobile

Gary Morgan:     

+61 3 9224 5213  

+61 411 129 094

Michele Levine:       

+61 3 9224 5215  

+61 411 129 093


Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

1,000

±3.2

±2.7

±1.9

±1.4

1,500

±2.6

±2.2

±1.5

±1.1

2,000

±2.2

±1.9

±1.3

±1.0