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L-NP (43%) fell further behind ALP (57%) before Turnbull challenged Abbott for the Prime Ministership on Monday

Finding No. 6455 – This multi-mode Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted via face-to-face interviewing last weekend September 12/13, 2015 with an Australia-wide cross-section of 826 Australian electors aged 18+, of all electors surveyed 5% (up 3%) did not name a party.
In mid-September L-NP support fell to 43% (down 2%) cf. ALP 57% (up 2%) on a two-party preferred basis. If a Federal Election had been held last weekend the ALP would have won easily.

Primary support for the ALP was up 1% to 36.5% while L-NP support had decreased to 35% (down 1.5%). Support for the Greens fell slightly to 16% (down 0.5%), Palmer United Party is 1.5% (up 0.5%), Katter’s Australian Party 0.5% (down 1%), while Independents/ Others are at 10.5% (up 1.5%).

This week’s Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted last weekend, September 12/13, 2015, with an Australia-wide cross-section of 826 Australian electors.

Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating fell to an equal record low 86pts this week (down 4pts) with 49% (up 2.5%) of Australians saying Australia is ‘heading in the wrong direction’ and only 35% (down 1.5%) saying Australia is ‘heading in the right direction’.

Analysis by Gender

Analysis by Gender shows a majority of both genders supporting the ALP. Women: ALP 60.5% (up 4%) cf. L-NP 39.5% (down 4%); Men: ALP 53% (down 0.5%) cf. L-NP 47% (up 0.5%).

Analysis by Age group

Analysis by Age group shows the ALP still with its strongest advantage among young family aged Australians (aged 25-34). 18-24yr olds favour the ALP 62.5% cf. L-NP 37.5%; 25-34yr olds most heavily favour the ALP 68% cf. L-NP 32%; 35-49yr olds favour the ALP 58.5% cf. L-NP 41.5% while 50-64yr olds narrowly favour the ALP 53% cf. L-NP 47% and those aged 65+ just favour the L-NP 51% cf. ALP 49%.

Analysis by States

The ALP now has a two-party preferred lead in all Australian States. South Australia: ALP 70% cf. L-NP 30% (this large result for the ALP is caused by Nick Xenophon’s new political party (the Nick Xenophon Team (NXT) gaining clearly more support than the L-NP in South Australia), Western Australia: ALP 62.5% cf. L-NP 37.5%, Victoria: ALP 58.5% cf. L-NP 41.5%, Tasmania: ALP 57.5% cf. L-NP 42.5%, New South Wales: ALP 54% cf. L-NP 46% and Queensland: ALP 50.5% cf. LNP 49.5%.

The Morgan Poll surveys a larger sample (including people who only use a mobile phone) than any other public opinion poll. The Morgan Poll asks Minor Party supporters which way they will vote their preferences. *News Corp’s poll does not measure or reference the PUP vote!

The Morgan Poll allocated preferences based on how people say they will vote – allocating preferences by how electors voted at the last Federal Election, as used by News Corp’s poll* shows the ALP (56.5%) cf. L-NP (43.5%) – for trends see the Morgan Poll historic data table.

Gary Morgan says:

“In mid-September L-NP support plunged back to recent lows with the L-NP 43% (down 2%) well behind the ALP 57% (up 2%) on a two-party preferred basis on the weekend before former Liberal Party Leader Malcolm Turnbull successfully challenged his predecessor and took back the Liberal Party Leadership. By challenging former Prime Minister Tony Abbott and becoming Prime Minister yesterday Turnbull became Australia’s 29th Prime Minister.

“A special Snap SMS Morgan Poll conducted yesterday after Turnbull was sworn in as Australia’s new Prime Minister showed Turnbull already enjoys a great deal of support from Australian electors with 70% preferring Turnbull as ‘Better Prime Minister’ compared to only 24% that support Opposition Leader Bill Shorten while 6% support neither/ other or can’t say.

“Turnbull’s ascension to the top job offers the Coalition Government a chance of renewal by replacing under-performing Ministers and promoting new talent into Cabinet and onto the front-bench with around one year to go before Australia is due to face a new Federal Election.

“The 7-Eleven and United Petroleum wages rort (under-award payment by cash and other underhanded deals) offers Prime Minister Turnbull the opportunity to grab the economic initiative which means presenting to Parliament major changes to Australia’s industrial relations and employment laws and cutting Government bureaucracy and wasteful Government spending.

“Turnbull’s performance will be measured by a drop in true unemployment and under-employment (Roy Morgan August unemployment (9.2% - 1.18 million) and under-employment (7.4% - 944,000) estimates show there are still more than 2.11 million Australians (16.6%) looking for a job or looking for a new job).

“Turnbull needs to immediately require the ABS to publish more details in their unemployment figure – and also their labour under-utilisation figure – on a monthly basis. At present, the ABS only publishes their labour under-utilisation figure on a quarterly basis.

“A clear measure of Turnbull’s success as Prime Minister will be shown by several Roy Morgan Confidence indicators. Roy Morgan Government Confidence plunged to an equal record low 86pts this week (down 4pts) before Abbott was deposed and the ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating is this week at 105.3 – its lowest for over a year. Most importantly, Roy Morgan Business Confidence plunged 9.7pts in August to a four year low of 102.6.

“Restoring confidence to all parts of the Australian economy as measured by the above four Roy Morgan indicators (Unemployment, Consumer Confidence, Government Confidence & Business Confidence) will provide the first proof that Turnbull is able to improve Australia’s economic performance as the economy deals with the end of the mining boom and additional economic concerns from abroad.”

Electors were asked: “If an election for the House of Representatives were held today – which party will receive your first preference?”

Visit the Roy Morgan Online Store to browse our range of Voter Profiles by electorate, detailed Voting Intention Demographics Reports and Most important Political Issue Reports (all 150 electorates ranked by an issue).

Finding No. 6455 – This multi-mode Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted via face-to-face interviewing last weekend September 12/13, 2015 with an Australia-wide cross-section of 826 Australian electors aged 18+, of all electors surveyed 5% (up 3%) did not name a party.


For further information:

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Data Tables


Morgan Poll on Federal Voting Intention - September 16, 2015

Roy Morgan GCR

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

500

±4.5

±3.9

±2.7

±1.9

1,000

±3.2

±2.7

±1.9

±1.4

1,500

±2.6

±2.2

±1.5

±1.1

2,000

±2.2

±1.9

±1.3

±1.0