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ANZ-Roy Morgan Thai Consumer Confidence Stays Relatively Resilient
September 23 2015
- Finding No.
Consumer Confidence Press Release
The monthly ANZ-Roy Morgan Thailand Consumer Confidence Index is based on 1,000 telephone interviews conducted throughout Thailand. Men and women aged 14 and over were randomly selected during the month of September 2015.
The ANZ-Roy Morgan Thailand Consumer Confidence index has eased –albeit slightly by 0.4pts to 103.4 - in September in the aftermath of the bomb blast in central Bangkok. The index is 24.1 pts lower than the same time a year ago (Sept’14: 127.5) and remains below its long-term average of 110.9. A key observation from the data was a drop in willingness among Thai respondents to purchase big-ticket household items.
ANZ Chief Economist South Asia, ASEAN & Pacific, Glenn Maguire said:
- In terms of personal finances, 24% (up 2ppts from August) of respondents said their families are ‘better off’ financially than the same time last year. For comparison, 45% (up 2ppts from August) said their families are ‘worse off’ financially than a year ago.
- 46% (up 2ppts from August) of respondents said they expect their families to be ‘better off’ financially in a year’s time. However, 24% (up 3ppts) expect their families to be ‘worse off’ financially, the highest value ever recorded for the indicator.
- When thinking of economic conditions in Thailand going forward, 45% (up 5ppts from August) expect Thailand to have ‘good times’ financially over the next 12 months, whereas 36% (down 1ppt from August) expect ‘bad times’ financially.
- However, Thai respondents are still sanguine about the country’s longer term prospects; the majority of respondents, or 70% (up 2ppts from August), expect Thailand to have ‘good times’ during the next five years. In contrast, only 9% (unchanged) expect ‘bad times’ in future.
- Only 17% (down 5ppts from August) of respondents said ‘now is a good time to buy’ major household items, whereas an increasing majority of 71% (up 4ppts from August) of respondents said ‘now is a bad time to buy’ major household items.
“The determinants and formation mechanism of sentiment is one of the most difficult economic dynamics to assess. Thailand has proven so this month, with consumer sentiment appearing to be more responsive to recent economic stimulus news than to the 17 August bomb blast in Bangkok.
"One month after the attack, the incident does not seem to wield any lingering adverse impact on overall consumer confidence. However, it could still have countered an otherwise more positive reaction to a series of economic stimulus announced by the Thai government. Specifically, Somkid Jatusripitak (the new Deputy Prime Minister) has announced measures –worth close to USD 3.8bn – which include soft loans to small- and medium-sized enterprises to help them access fresh capital, in addition to an acceleration in budget disbursement for small projects. The decision reinforces our view that Somkid is urgently unlocking limited fiscal policy space to boost growth. This dynamic is reflected in 45% of the respondents (up by 5ppts from August) who expect Thailand to have ‘good times’ financially over the next 12 months.
"Should growth continue to disappoint despite the government’s recent fiscal efforts, then another 25bps cut in the policy rate by the end of the year to 1.25% might be the offing.”
Click to view the latest ANZ-Roy Morgan Thailand Consumer Confidence Release PDF - September 2015.
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