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ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence falls 3.9pts to 110.6 after Turnbull 'bounce'
September 29 2015
- Finding No.
Consumer Confidence Press Release
This weekly ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating is based on 1,002 face-to-face interviews conducted Australia-wide with men and women aged 14 and over last weekend September 26/27, 2015.
ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence declined 3.4% to 110.6 this week. This partially retraces the record 8.7% bounce in the previous week in response to the appointment of Malcolm Turnbull as Prime Minister. While this still leaves confidence a solid 5.0% above the level of two weeks ago, it is now back below its long-run average.
ANZ Co-Head of Australian Economics Felicity Emmett commented:
- The decline in confidence was broad-based across the subindices. Of note, expectations of the economic outlook declined following the large jump in the previous week. Confidence in the economy over the next year declined 7.5% (following a 25.8% surge in the previous week) while confidence in the five-year outlook fell a more modest 1.5% (after a robust 13.4% gain in the prior week). The levels of both subindices are below their long-run average.
- ‘Time to buy a major household item’ was the only subindex to more than reverse the previous week’s gain and is now at the lowest level since May 2009. This likely reflects a softening housing market.
“A partial reversal in confidence this week is not surprising given the record bounce in the previous week in response to the appointment of Malcolm Turnbull as the new Prime Minister. While Turnbull’s appointment was greeted with considerable optimism, the challenges facing Australian households remain front of mind and make it difficult to sustain a lift in confidence.
"We continue to think that the new government needs to focus on two key planks of economic policy, both medium and long term in nature. Firstly, they need to get the government’s finances in order. Secondly, they need to present a vision for Australia’s economy and reform agenda.
"While pursuing these objectives will put the Australian economy on a solid footing in the medium term, it may come at the cost of growth in the short term. Hence, even if business and consumer confidence can build over the coming weeks, we doubt it will be enough to move the dial on the economy. As such, sub-par economic growth and a softening property market will likely see the RBA cut rates further in 2016.”
Click to view the PDF of the ANZ-Roy Morgan Weekly Consumer Confidence Release.
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