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New PM Turnbull gives L-NP (55%) big lead over ALP (45%)

Finding No. 6471 – This multi-mode Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted SMS and via face-to-face interviewing last weekend, September 19/20, 2015 with an Australia-wide cross-section of 2,059 Australian electors aged 18+, of all electors surveyed 1.5% (down 3.5%) did not name a party.
In late September L-NP support jumped to 55% (up 12%) cf. ALP 45% (down 12%) on a two-party preferred basis after Malcolm Turnbull successfully challenged Tony Abbott last week to become Australia’s 29th Prime Minister. If a Federal Election were held now the L-NP would win easily.

Primary support for the L-NP jumped a massive 11% to 46% (the highest L-NP support since the 2013 Federal Election at which the L-NP gained 45.5% support) while ALP support decreased to 29.5% (down 7%) – the lowest ALP primary support for more than three years since July 2012.

Support for the Greens fell to 13% (down 3%), Palmer United Party is 1.5% (unchanged), Katter’s Australian Party 1.5% (up 1%), while Independents/ Others are at 8.5% (down 2%).

This week’s Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted last weekend, September 19/20, 2015, with an Australia-wide cross-section of 2,059 Australian electors.

Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating rocketed upwards this week (up 17pts) with 42.5% (up 7.5%) of Australians saying Australia is ‘heading in the right direction’ and 39.5% (down 9.5%) saying Australia is ‘heading in the wrong direction’.

Analysis by Gender

Analysis by Gender shows a majority of both genders supporting the L-NP. Men: L-NP 58.5% (up 11.5%) cf. ALP 41.5% (down 11.5%); Women: L-NP 52% (up 5%) cf. ALP 48% (down 5%).

Analysis by Age group

Analysis by Age group shows the ALP now has its only advantage among young Australians. 18-24yr olds favour the ALP 61.5% cf. L-NP 38.5%; 25-34yr olds favour the ALP 54% cf. L-NP 46%; 35-49yr olds favour the L-NP 58% cf. ALP 42% while 50-64yr olds favour the L-NP 57% cf. ALP 43% and those aged 65+ easily favour the L-NP 64% cf. ALP 36%.

Analysis by States

The L-NP now has a two-party preferred lead in 4 Australian States. Tasmania: L-NP 64% cf. ALP 36%, Queensland: L-NP 59% cf. ALP 41%, New South Wales: L-NP 58.5% cf. ALP 41.5%, Western Australia L-NP 55.5% cf. ALP 44.5%, Victoria: L-NP 50% cf. ALP 50% and South Australia: ALP 53% cf. L-NP 47%.

The Morgan Poll surveys a larger sample (including people who only use a mobile phone) than any other public opinion poll. The Morgan Poll asks Minor Party supporters which way they will vote their preferences. *News Corp’s poll does not measure or reference the PUP vote!

The Morgan Poll allocated preferences based on how people say they will vote – allocating preferences by how electors voted at the last Federal Election, as used by News Corp’s poll* shows the L-NP (53.5%) cf. ALP (46.5%) – for trends see the Morgan Poll historic data table.

Gary Morgan says:

“Malcolm Turnbull becoming Prime Minister last week has given the L-NP 55% (up 12% since September 12/13, 2015) a huge boost and its largest lead over the ALP 45% (down 12%) on a two-party preferred basis since winning the 2013 Federal Election. In addition a special Snap SMS Morgan Poll conducted last week showed Turnbull (70%) with a huge lead over Shorten (24%) as ‘Better Prime Minister’ while 6% support neither/ other or can’t say.

“In further good news for the new Prime Minister – the Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has jumped to 103pts (up 17pts) with 42.5% (up 7.5%) of Australians saying Australia is ‘heading in the right direction’ compared to only 39.5% (down 9.5%) that say Australia is ‘heading in the wrong direction’. This is the first time the Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has been in positive territory since April 2014 – just before former Treasurer Joe Hockey delivered his deeply unpopular first Federal Budget. Tomorrow’s ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating will give the first indication of how Turnbull’s ascent to the top job has impacted on Australian consumers.

“Turnbull’s first major act as Prime Minister was an overdue Cabinet reshuffle. A star performer of the Abbott Government, Scott Morrison, has been rewarded with a promotion to Treasurer in place of the departing Hockey who has signaled his intention to leave public life. Morrison’s promotion came despite his support for Abbott in last week’s leadership ballot and he, along with Turnbull, faces a huge job to advocate for the significant reforms – including industrial relations and taxation reforms – that former Prime Minister Tony Abbott and Hockey failed to make.

“The positive response for Turnbull gives our new Prime Minister and his team a strong mandate to tackle the ‘cash economy’ and the wage rorts that go hand-in-hand. The recent examples of 7-Eleven & United Petroleum show major industrial relations reforms are required to limit the ‘cash economy’ – in particular tourism, retail & hospitality employees and tradesmen.

“By eliminating the ‘cash economy’ Turnbull can increase productivity and growth in Australia’s economy which in turn increases business confidence amongst properly-run businesses to create more jobs and employ more workers. The ultimate measure of Turnbull’s success as Prime Minister will be dropping Australian real unemployment and under-employment – not the incomplete ABS unemployment figures. The latest Roy Morgan August unemployment (9.2% - 1.17 million) and under-employment (7.4% - 944,000) show there are still more than 2.11 million Australians (16.6%) looking for a job or looking for a new job.

“Turnbull has also promoted several women into Cabinet including Marise Payne, Australia’s first female Defence Minister, Michaelia Cash, Minister for Employment and the new Minister for Women replacing Tony Abbott and Kelly O’Dwyer now the Small Business Minister and Assistant Treasurer. Already in Cabinet are Foreign Minister Julie Bishop and Health & Sport Minister Sussan Ley. Joining Abbott and Hockey on the way out are former Defence Minister Kevin Andrews, former Employment Minister Eric Abetz, former Industry & Science Minister Ian Macfarlane, former Small Business Minister Bruce Billson and former Minister for Veterans Affairs Michael Ronaldson.”

Electors were asked: “If an election for the House of Representatives were held today – which party will receive your first preference?”

Visit the Roy Morgan Online Store to browse our range of Voter Profiles by electorate, detailed Voting Intention Demographics Reports and Most important Political Issue Reports (all 150 electorates ranked by an issue).

Finding No. 6471 – This multi-mode Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted via SMS and face-to-face interviewing last weekend, September 19/20, 2015 with an Australia-wide cross-section of 2,059 Australian electors aged 18+, of all electors surveyed 1.5% (down 3.5%) did not name a party.


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Data Tables


Morgan Poll on Federal Voting Intention - September 21, 2015

Roy Morgan GCR

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

500

±4.5

±3.9

±2.7

±1.9

1,000

±3.2

±2.7

±1.9

±1.4

1,500

±2.6

±2.2

±1.5

±1.1

2,000

±2.2

±1.9

±1.3

±1.0