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Holiday intention down…but for how long?

Source: Roy Morgan Single Source (Australia), April 2010 – June 2015, average sample per quarter n=5,390.

The proportion of Australians planning to take a holiday in the next 12 months is currently at its lowest point since the beginning of the year. While overseas travel intention has stayed steady in that time, the Roy Morgan Research Holiday Tracking Survey for the June 2015 quarter reveal that this slump has come about because fewer of us are planning to take our next holiday on home soil.

Currently, 70% of Aussies aged 14+ (or 13.7 million people) are intending to take some kind of trip in the next 12 months, down from 73% in the three months to January 2015, and slightly lower than the same time last year (71%).

Whereas the January 2015 quarter saw 58% of the population intending for their next holiday to be domestic, this has since dipped to 55%.

Meanwhile, the proportion of Australians planning to head overseas for their next holiday (10%) has remained relatively unchanged over the last 12 months.

Australians intending to take a holiday in the next 12 months

Source: Roy Morgan Single Source (Australia), April 2010 – June 2015, average sample per quarter n=5,390. NB: A small percentage of holiday intenders cannot nominate where they will be going on their next holiday. As a result, the percentages shown as intending to go overseas or domestic on their next holiday do not add to the ‘total intenders’.

Angela Smith, Group Account Director, Roy Morgan Research, says:

“After starting the year on a very healthy note, intention to take a holiday in the next 12 months has been gradually slipping. Surprisingly, despite the plunging Australian dollar, the proportion of Aussies intending to go overseas for their next trip hasn’t changed. Rather, the decline has been driven by softening domestic intention.

"While this probably isn't music to the ears of the Australian tourism industry, it's healthier than it was this time two years ago (68%). By ensuring they have an in-depth understanding of which people are most likely to take their next holiday in which state, regional tourism operators and destination marketers are more than capable of rising to the challenge of this temporary slow-down.

"For example, young couples are considerably more likely than the average Australian to have Victoria and Western Australia in their travel sights for their next trip, while older folks are well above average when it comes to the ACT, the Northern Territory and South Australia. Queensland is especially popular not only among young families, but also young singles.

"Of course, targeting holiday-makers on the basis of particular interests is another way of potentially boosting travel to a region, as our recent findings about cyclists highlighted..."

For comments or more information about Roy Morgan Research’s travel and tourism data, please contact:

Vaishali Nagaratnam
Telephone: +61 (3) 9224 5309

About Roy Morgan

Roy Morgan is the largest independent Australian research company, with offices throughout Australia, as well as in Indonesia, the United States and the United Kingdom. A full service research organisation specialising in omnibus and syndicated data, Roy Morgan has over 70 years’ experience in collecting objective, independent information on consumers.

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate


25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%