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ANZ-Roy Morgan Chinese Consumer Confidence Stabilised in September
September 23 2015
- Finding No.
Consumer Confidence Press Release
The ANZ-Roy Morgan China Consumer Confidence survey elicits respondents' expectations of inflation and prices. Data in September was collected from a sample of 1,000 Chinese aged 14+ (12,000 per annum) by telephone. The survey is conducted in metropolitan and outer urban areas - not only are 1st, 2nd and 3rd Tier cities included, but Tier 4 cities are also surveyed every month. The robust, representative sample is stratified geographically, with quotas controlled by gender and age.
ANZ’s Chief Economist for Greater China Li-Gang Liu said:
- ANZ-Roy Morgan China Consumer Confidence Index inched down by 0.1pt to 138.4 in September, another record low.
- In terms of personal finances, 40.4% (down 0.3ppt from August) of respondents in September said that their families are ‘better off’ financially, compared with the same time last year. Meanwhile, 15.3% (down 0.3ppt) said that they are ‘worse off’. On the outlook for personal financial situation, 52.6% (up 1.7ppts) expect their families to be ‘better off’ next year, compared with 7.8% (up 0.3ppt) who expect conditions to be ‘worse off’.
- On economic conditions, respondents who expect China to have ‘good times’ next year fell to 57.3% (down 0.1ppt), while respondents who expect economic ‘bad times’ declined to 14.9% (down 1.0ppt). On longer-term economic performance, 64.1% (down 1.5ppts) expect China to have ‘good times’ and 13.4% (down 1.6ppts) said that there will be ‘bad times’.
- In September, respondents who said that it is a ‘good time’ to buy major items now declined to 37.5% (down 2.4ppts), while respondents who said that it is a ‘bad time’ to do so rose to 8.6% (up 0.6ppts).
- Inflation expectations declined marginally to 3.69% (down 0.1ppts) in September.
“While the headline consumer confidence continued to inch down in September, the sub-indices signalled that consumer sentiment have started to show signs of stabilisation. The negative impact of equity market rout on sentiments has settled down. Compared with survey results in August, respondents were more optimistic in both their personal finances and the economic conditions over the next twelve months.
"The low consumer confidence readings in recent months are consistent with the sluggish macroeconomic data in July and August, which continued to point to a soft GDP outturn in Q3. However, as monetary and fiscal policy supports have intensified, we are still cautiously optimistic that a policy-driven rebound in Q4 could be underway. For now, we expect GDP to slow to 6.4% y/y in Q3, before rebounding to 6.8% in Q4, leading to a full year growth of 6.8%.”
Click to view the latest ANZ-Roy Morgan Chinese Consumer Confidence Release PDF - September 2015.
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