New Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull gave an immediate boost to Consumer Confidence across a range of key demographics this week. Overall ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence jumped by a one-week record 9.2pts – from 105.3 (September 12/13, 2015) to 114.5 (September 19/20, 2015) following Turnbull’s swearing in as Australia’s 29th Prime Minister on Tuesday September 15, 2015. This strong increase was repeated across the board.
New Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull gave an immediate boost to Consumer Confidence across a range of key demographics last week. Overall ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence jumped by a one-week record 9.2pts – from 105.3 (September 12/13, 2015) to 114.5 (September 19/20, 2015) following Turnbull’s swearing in as Australia’s 29th Prime Minister on Tuesday September 15, 2015. This strong increase was repeated across the board.
The increase to Consumer Confidence was broad-based with Consumer Confidence increasing strongly for both genders, across all age groups and all States & Capital Cities. In particular Consumer Confidence in Australia’s two largest commercial centres increased more strongly than other cities: Sydney – 107.6 to 117.4 (up 9.8pts) and Melbourne – 104.4 to 119.2 (up 14.8pts).
This strong endorsement of the new Prime Minister from Australia’s consumers gives Turnbull a clear ‘mandate’ to pursue reforms to the Australian economy to ensure strong future growth and to make the structural adjustments necessary to make the Australian economy more competitive as it deals with the end of the commodities boom and the closure of legacy manufacturing industries – the manufacturing component of the Australian car industry is due to close entirely by the end of next year.
Looking closely at the five Consumer Confidence indicators shows the strongest positive reaction was in regards to the Australian economy. Sentiment regarding the Australian economy over the next 12 months increased the most strongly with 31% (up 10ppts) of Australians expecting ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months and only 28% (down 11ppts) expecting ‘bad times’. This is the first time this indicator has been in positive territory since November 2014 nearly one year ago.
In addition, now 33% (up 7ppts) of Australians now expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next five years and just 23% (down 6ppts) expect ‘bad times’ – a positive differential of 10ppts. This is the best result on this measure since just after this year’s Federal Budget in May. The strong increases in both of these indicators show Australians believe Turnbull will provide better economic leadership, along with new Treasurer Scott Morrison, than the outgoing team of former Prime Minister Tony Abbott and former Treasurer Joe Hockey.
Turnbull has already indicated a key area of change for his Government will be a renewed focus on improving Australia’s infrastructure – particularly in Australia’s largest urban centres. Turnbull has appointed Jamie Briggs as Minister for the new portfolio of Cities and the Built Environment with a brief to support investments in good transport links regardless of the mode – whether road, heavy rail or light rail. Strengthening investment in infrastructure will provide a strong impetus for the economy as it faces the challenges touched on above.
In addition to increased investments on the home front, there is the prospect of increasing trade and investment with Australia’s largest trading partners – most of which are in the Asia-Pacific region. Turnbull had said only days before becoming Prime Minister that he is a strong supporter of increasing Australia’s trade with our neighbours in the Asia-Pacific region and in particular Turnbull singled out the recently negotiated China-Australia Free Trade Agreement (ChAFTA).
Malcolm Turnbull (as Communications Minister) said on September 9, 2015:
“The Honourable Member’s (John Alexander OAM) electorate of Bennelong contains some of Australia’s leading technology businesses. Some of Australia’s leading research institutions. Both private and public sector – the CSIRO’s laboratories are in the Macquarie Park district in his electorate.
“While the Member’s electorate does not contain an iron ore mine or a coal mine it is poised to benefit immensely from the China-Australia Free Trade Agreement. The best Free Trade Agreement ever entered into, ever negotiated, by China with any comparable developed country. The achievement of the Trade Minister (Andrew Robb) has been remarkable and the future of our children’s jobs and our grandchildren’s jobs lie in the benefits that come from this agreement.”
Turnbull’s ascension to the top job in Australia last week has recharged Australian confidence and provides new opportunities for Australia’s leadership to engage fruitfully across the Asia-Pacific region and build on the successes of the Abbott Government’s first two years.
Although Australia had several contentious issues with nearest neighbour Indonesia under Tony Abbott – including the revelation of Australian spying on the Indonesian President’s wife (which actually occurred under the former Labor Government), the ongoing issues of people smugglers and asylum seekers arriving in Australia, the drawn-out drama surrounding the execution of convicted Australian drug smugglers Andrew Chan and Myuran Sukumaran and controversies surrounding the export of live cattle to Indonesia, there were also several notable successes in the Asia-Pacific.
Trade Minister Andrew Robb concluded important Free Trade deals with three of Australia’s largest trading partners – South Korea (4th largest trading partner), Japan (2nd) and finally China (1st) – as mentioned by our new Prime Minister. These three North-East Asian countries are amongst Australia’s top 4 trading partners along with the United States (3rd). In addition, Australia already has free-trading agreements in place with three other key Asia-Pacific countries – Singapore (5th), New Zealand (6th) and Thailand (9th).
As well as the significant boost to Consumer Confidence upon becoming Prime Minister, Turnbull also enjoys an immediate advantage over Opposition Leader Bill Shorten. A snap SMS Morgan Poll taken after Turnbull gained the top job showed Australians clearly regard Turnbull as the ‘Better PM: Turnbull 70% cf. Shorten 24% with 6% undecided or nominating someone else. This is a huge turnaround from before when Abbott and Shorten were almost dead-level on the same question.
Although the early signs for Turnbull are certainly positive, the verdict of Australian electors on the new Turnbull Government will be handed down in a year’s time when Australians vote in the 2016 Federal Election – due in September 2016.
Over the next few weeks and months several Roy Morgan indicators – including the weekly ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating, the monthly Roy Morgan Business Confidence Rating and the monthly Roy Morgan real unemployment and under-employment estimate (August unemployment of 1.18 million – 9.2% and under-employment of 944,000 – 7.4% of Australians) will provide the clearest measure of whether Turnbull has what it takes to introduce the required reforms to boost the Australian economy and provide the confidence to Australian businesses and consumers to get the Australian economy growing on a sustainable path.
Turnbull boosts ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence in key demographics
ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence September 12/13, 2015 (Before Turnbull was Prime Minister) – 105.3 cf. ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence September 19/20, 2015 (After Turnbull became Prime Minister) – 114.5. Increase of 9.2pts in a week.
Analysis by Age & Gender
Men: 107.4 to 117.4 (up 10.0pts)
Women: 103.3 to 111.6 (up 8.3pts)
14-24yr olds: 120.0 to 122.7 (up 2.7pts)
25-34yr olds: 107.5 to 117.5 (up 10.0pts)
35-49yr olds: 103.3 to 114.0 (up 10.7pts)
50-64yr olds: 96.5 to 111.0 (up 14.5pts)
65+yr olds: 102.6 to 108.5 (up 5.9pts)
Analysis by State – Turnbull boosts ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence in all States
NSW: 107.4 to 116.0 (up 8.6pts)
Victoria: 104.4 to 118.4 (up 14.0pts)
Queensland: 99.0 to 108.9 (up 9.9pts)
WA: 108.4 to 112.3 (up 3.9pts)
SA: 106.1 to 108.4 (up 2.3pts)
Tasmania: 123.8 to 128.7 (up 4.9pts)
Analysis by City – Turnbull gives largest boost in Sydney & Melbourne
Sydney: 107.6 to 117.4 (up 9.8pts)
Melbourne: 104.4 to 119.2 (up 14.8pts)
Brisbane: 102.6 to 109.3 (up 6.7pts)
Perth: 107.1 to 111.1 (up 4.0pts)
Adelaide: 111.0 to 111.3 (up 0.3pts)
Mainland Capital Cities: 106.1 to 115.3 (up 9.2pts)
Rural & Regional: 104.0 to 113.0 (up 9.0pts)
Visit the Roy Morgan Online Store to browse our Voter Profiles by electorate, detailed Voting Intention Demographics Reports and Most important Political Issue Reports (all 150 electorates ranked by an issue).
For further information:
+61 3 9224 5213
+61 411 129 094
+61 3 9224 5215
+61 411 129 093