Australian September real unemployment 8.3% – lowest since May 2012

• 12,764,000 Australians are in the workforce (up 540,000 since September 2014) and 11,706,000 Australians are employed (up a large 690,000 since September 2014 – and a new record high);
• 7,888,000 Australians are employed full-time (up a large 720,000 since September 2014);
• 3,818,000 Australians are employed part-time (down 30,000 since September 2014);
• 1,058,000 Australians are looking for work: 8.3% of the workforce – down 115,000 in the last month (0.9%) and down 150,000 (1.6%) since September 2014;
• 936,000 Australians are under-employed – working part-time and looking for more hours: 7.3% of the workforce (the lowest since October 2011) – down 79,000 (or 1.0%) since September 2014;
• Now 1,994,000 Australians are unemployed or under-employed: 15.6% of the workforce – down 229,000 (down 2.6%) since September 2014 – the first time total Australian unemployment and under-employment has been below 2 million Australians since November 2011.
• This month’s decrease from 9.2% to 8.3% means the latest Roy Morgan unemployment estimate is now 2.1% higher than the figure currently quoted by the ABS for August 2015 (6.2%).

*Workforce includes those employed and those looking for work – the unemployed.

Gary Morgan says:

“Australian employment has increased to a new record in September to 11,706,000 (up a large 690,000 since September 2014). The strong rise in employment has been led by a large increase in full-time employment over the past year to 7,888,000 (up 720,000) while part-time employment is barely changed at 3,818,000 (down 30,000) according to today’s Roy Morgan September employment estimates.

“The strong rise in employment in Australia over the past year has led to a falling unemployment rate – now at 8.3% (down 1.6% from a year ago) and the lowest since May 2012 nearly 3 ½ years ago. In addition to the falling level of unemployment Australian under-employment has remained below a million workers for the third straight month now at 7.3% (936,000). This is the lowest sustained run of under-employment since the period of June – November 2012 during the final year of the Gillard-Rudd Government.

“Today’s real Roy Morgan September employment estimates are an encouraging sign for Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull and his new Ministry, although in truth these results reflect the final month of the Abbott Government and are now a benchmark for Turnbull’s Government to be compared with over the next year as we head towards the 2016 Federal Election.

“Roy Morgan unemployment data shows that as the number of jobs increases more people begin looking for work. Over the last few months the number of new jobs has kept pace with the pent-up demand for employment. Today’s ANZ Job ads index for September is another indicator which has shown a healthy growth in the number of job advertisements over the past two months in particular – now 12.8% higher this September than a year ago.

“Although it appears Australia’s employment market is heading in the right direction, it is obviously early days for the new Turnbull Government and the momentum of recent months must be built upon rather than squandered by policy timidity. The widespread wage sham and payroll falsification uncovered at 7-Eleven Stores and alleged at several other franchisors including United Petroleum, Bakers Delight, Dominos, Nandos and Subway confirm what we at Roy Morgan have been saying for years about the ‘cash economy’ – it must be stopped by the Federal Government.

"The negative multiplier impact of the ‘cash economy’ has not yet been quantified by the Federal Government or the Productivity Commission – but it clearly impacts on the Australian economy:

a) Taxes not being paid by those in the ‘cash economy’

b) Centrelink benefits claimed by some in the ‘cash economy’ (because they don’t declare their earnings);

c) Unfair competition for companies paying correct wages who can’t compete;

d) Companies operating in the ‘cash economy’ obviously need to ‘deal in cash’ – so company tax is lost to the Australian economy;

“In addition, once people find themselves ‘outside the law’, the traditional protections offered by the law in terms of such things as bullying, harassment, etc. are not available.

“It’s not just retail workers that 'live in’ the ‘cash economy’ – there are also the hundreds of thousands of Australians in hospitality, retail, trades, building and the like. Obviously the only viable solution to deal with cash ‘rorts’ is to declare an amnesty and allow the economy to start afresh – taxes can be cut without putting up the GST. Unfortunately the issues created by Australia’s large ‘cash economy’ are ignored by politicians and the Fair Work Judiciary.”

This Roy Morgan survey on Australia’s unemployment and ‘under-employed’* is based on weekly face-to-face interviews of 451,906 Australians aged 14 and over between January 2007 – September 2015 and includes 4,148 face-to-face interviews in September 2015.

*The ‘under-employed’ are those people who are in part-time work or consultants who are looking for more work. (Unfortunately the ABS does not release this figure in their monthly unemployment survey results.)

For further information: 

Unemployment Data Tables

Roy Morgan Research Employment Estimates (2001-2015)

Roy Morgan Research Unemployment & Under-employment Estimates (2007-2015)

Roy Morgan Research vs ABS Employment Estimates (1992-2015)

ABS Employment Estimates (1992-2015)

ROY MORGAN MEASURES REAL UNEMPLOYMENT IN AUSTRALIA

http://www.roymorgan.com/~/media/Files/Papers/2012/20120603.pdf

The Roy Morgan Unemployment estimate is obtained by surveying an Australia-wide cross section by face-to-face interviews. A person is classified as unemployed if they are looking for work, no matter when.

The results are not seasonally adjusted and provide an accurate measure of monthly unemployment estimates in Australia.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics Unemployment estimates are obtained by mostly telephone interviews. Households selected for the ABS Survey are interviewed each month for eight months, with one-eighth of the sample being replaced each month. The first interview is conducted face-to-face. Subsequent interviews are then conducted by telephone.

The ABS classifies a person as unemployed if, when surveyed, they have been actively looking for work in the four weeks up to the end of the reference week and if they were available for work in the reference week.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics Unemployment estimates are also seasonally adjusted.

For these reasons the Australian Bureau of Statistics Unemployment estimates are different from the Roy Morgan Unemployment estimate. Gary Morgan's concerns regarding the ABS Unemployment estimate is clearly outlined in his letter to the Australian Financial Review, which was not published.