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L-NP (56%) leads ALP (44%) – biggest lead for L-NP since June 2013 – a vote of confidence in Turnbull’s new Ministry

Finding No. 6491 – This multi-mode Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted via face-to-face and SMS interviewing over the last two weekends September 26/27 & October 1-5, 2015 with an Australia-wide cross-section of 3,011 Australian electors aged 18+, of all electors surveyed 2.5% (up 1%) did not name a party. 
In early October, in the second Morgan Poll since Malcolm Turnbull became Prime Minister, L-NP support rose to 56% (up 1%) cf. ALP 44% (down 1%) on a two-party preferred basis following the swearing in of the Turnbull Government’s new Ministry. If a Federal Election were held now the L-NP would win easily.

Primary support for the L-NP rose 1% to 47% (the highest L-NP support since the 2013 Federal Election at which the L-NP gained 45.5% support) while ALP support fell 2% to 27.5% (the lowest ALP primary support for more than three years since May 2012).

Support for the Greens rose to 14% (up 1%), Palmer United Party is 1.5% (unchanged), Katter’s Australian Party 1.5% (unchanged), while Independents/ Others are at 8.5% (unchanged).

This week’s Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted over the last two weekends, September 26/27 & October 1-5, 2015, with an Australia-wide cross-section of 3,011 Australian electors.

Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating rose again this week to 109 (up 6pts) with 45.5% (up 3%) of Australians saying Australia is ‘heading in the right direction’ and 36.5% (down 3%) saying Australia is ‘heading in the wrong direction’.

Analysis by Gender

Analysis by Gender shows a majority of both genders supporting the L-NP. Men: L-NP 58.5% (unchanged) cf. ALP 41.5% (unchanged); Women: L-NP 54% (up 2%) cf. ALP 46% (down 2%).

Analysis by Age group

Analysis by Age group shows that Turnbull’s biggest problem is with convincing younger voters to support the L-NP. The ALP leads with 18-24yr olds: ALP 55.5% cf. L- NP 44.5% and is level with the L-NP amongst 25-34yr olds: ALP 50% cf. L-NP 50%. However, the L-NP leads comfortably with all older age groups: 35-49yr olds favour the L-NP 56% cf. ALP 44% while 50-64yr olds favour the L-NP 59% cf. ALP 41% and those aged 65+ easily favour the L-NP 63% cf. ALP 37%.

Analysis by States

The L-NP now has a two-party preferred lead in all Australian States. West Australia: L-NP 59% cf. ALP 41%, Queensland: LNP 58.5% cf. ALP 41.5%, New South Wales: L-NP 58.5% cf. ALP 41.5%, Tasmania: L-NP 56% cf. ALP 44%, Victoria: L-NP 52.5% cf. ALP 47.5% and South Australia: L-NP 52% cf. ALP 48%.

The Morgan Poll surveys a larger sample (including people who only use a mobile phone) than any other public opinion poll. The Morgan Poll asks Minor Party supporters which way they will vote their preferences. *News Corp’s poll does not measure or reference the PUP vote!

The Morgan Poll allocated preferences based on how people say they will vote – allocating preferences by how electors voted at the last Federal Election, as used by News Corp’s poll* shows the L-NP (55%) cf. ALP (45%) – for trends see the Morgan Poll historic data table.

Gary Morgan says:

“The L-NP has increased its lead in the second Morgan Poll since Malcolm Turnbull became Australian Prime Minister with the L-NP 56% (up 1% since September 19/20, 2015) cf. ALP 44% (down 1%) on a two-party preferred basis following the swearing in of the Turnbull Government’s new Ministry. This is the largest lead for the L-NP since June 2013 during the last days of the Gillard Government (Rudd replaced Gillard as PM in late June 2013 before the Federal Election).

“Additional good news for Turnbull is the Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating which has again increased strongly – up 6pts to 109 – its highest since January 2014, early in the term of the Abbott Government, with 45.5% (up 3%) of Australians saying Australia is ‘heading in the right direction’ – the highest since December 2013.

“The strong boost to Australian confidence across the board (ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence increased a record 9.2pts in the week Turnbull became Prime Minister to 114.5) gives Turnbull a chance to legislate real reforms – including major industrial relations reforms – and to cut the bureaucratic red tape that holds back the Australian economy.

“Turnbull’s key priority is to dismantle the ‘cash economy’ and wage rorting that occurs throughout Australian businesses. The recent wage sham and payroll falsification that has led to gross under-payment of employees revealed at 7- Eleven is only the ‘tip of the iceberg’. There’s no doubt the Federal Government, Opposition and unions need to immediately address the systemic under-payment of workers using both legal and illegal methods or just paying them cash.

“New Treasurer Scott Morrison’s claim that weekend penalty rates will be an election issue is completely misguided. Today employers relying on the Better Off Overall Test are already able to reduce weekend penalty rates to the detriment of many employees to which the Fair Work Commission has knowingly approved agreements where this is the case – the Fair Work Commission with some employers is clearly involved in the penalty rates sham!

“The ultimate measure of the success of the Turnbull Government at next year’s Federal Election will be dropping Australian real unemployment and under-employment – not the incomplete ABS unemployment figures. Released today is the latest Roy Morgan September unemployment (8.3% - 1.06 million) and under-employment (7.3% - 936,000) show there are still 1.99 million Australians (15.6%) looking for a job or looking for a new job.”

Electors were asked: “If an election for the House of Representatives were held today – which party will receive your first preference?”

Visit the Roy Morgan Online Store to browse our range of Voter Profiles by electorate, detailed Voting Intention Demographics Reports and Most important Political Issue Reports (all 150 electorates ranked by an issue).

Finding No. 6491 – This multi-mode Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted via face-to-face and SMS  interviewing over the last two weekends September 26/27 & October 1-5, 2015 with an Australia-wide cross-section of 3,011 Australian electors aged 18+, of all electors surveyed 2.5% (up 1%) did not name a party.

For further information:

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Gary Morgan:

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Michele Levine:

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+61 411 129 093


Data Tables


Morgan Poll on Federal Voting Intention - October 5, 2015

Roy Morgan GCR

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

500

±4.5

±3.9

±2.7

±1.9

1,000

±3.2

±2.7

±1.9

±1.4

1,500

±2.6

±2.2

±1.5

±1.1

2,000

±2.2

±1.9

±1.3

±1.0