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Popular Premiers Mike Baird & Daniel Andrews have large leads in NSW & Victoria while other States are close

The SMS Morgan Poll on State voting intention and preferred Premiers was conducted between October 9-15, 2015 with a cross-section of 4,145 Australian electors including 995 New South Wales electors, 918 Victorian electors, 773 Queensland electors, 519 South Australian electors, 469 Western Australian electors and 228 Tasmanian electors.

The L-NP leads strongly in NSW: L-NP 60.5% cf. ALP 39.5% and the ALP holds a similar large lead in Victoria: ALP 55.5% cf. L-NP 44.5% on two-party preferred bases in October, according to this month’s SMS Morgan Poll on State voting intention.

State voting intention was conducted in mid-October with a representative cross-section of 4,145 Australian electors.


NEW SOUTH WALES: L-NP would win an Election easily

2PP: L-NP 60.5% (up 3.5% since August 28-31, 2015) cf. ALP 39.5% (down 3.5%).

Primary vote: L-NP 54% (up 5%), ALP 24.5% (down 0.5%), Greens 13.5% (down 4%), Christian Democrats 2.5% (down 0.5%) and Independents/ Others 5.5% (unchanged).

Better Premier: Premier Mike Baird (Liberal) v Luke Foley (ALP):
Mr. Baird 74.5% (up 2.5%) cf. Mr. Foley 25.5% (down 2.5%); Lead to Mr. Baird 49% (up 5%).

New South Wales real unemployment is now 8.6% (down 0.1% since July – August 2015) and under-employment is 7.5% (down 0.5%). This means total New South Wales unemployment & under-employment is 16.1% (down 0.6%). (Interviewed August – September 2015).

New South Wales State Election is due to be held in March 2019.


VICTORIA: ALP would win an Election easily

2PP: ALP 55.5% (down 1.5% since August 28-31, 2015) cf. L-NP 44.5% (up 1.5%).

Primary vote: ALP 40% (up 1%), L-NP 39% (up 3.5%), Greens 14.5% (down 2%), Family First 2% (down 1%), Country Alliance 0.5% (down 0.5%) and Independents/ Others 4% (down 1%).

Better Premier: Premier Daniel Andrews (ALP) v Matthew Guy (Liberal):
Mr. Andrews 63.5% (up 2.5%) cf. Mr. Guy 36.5% (down 2.5%); Lead to Mr. Andrews 27% (up 5%).

Victorian real unemployment is now 6.3% (down 2% since July – August 2015) and under-employment is 8.3% (up 0.8%). This means total Victorian unemployment & under-employment is 14.6% (down 1.2%). (Interviewed August – September 2015).

Victorian State Election is due to be held in November 2018.


WESTERN AUSTRALIA: Election would be too close to call

2PP: L-NP 51.5% (up 1.5% since August 28-31, 2015) cf. ALP 48.5% (down 1.5%).

Primary vote: Liberal 37.5% (up 2.5%), ALP 32% (down 2%), WA Nationals 4.5% (down 2.5%), Greens 13% (down 2%), Christians 3% (up 1.5%), and Independents/ Others 10% (up 2.5%).

Better Premier: Premier Colin Barnett (Liberal) v Mark McGowan (ALP):
Mr. McGowan 59% (up 1%) cf. Mr. Barnett 41% (down 1%); Lead to Mr McGowan 18% (up 2%).

Western Australian real unemployment is now 10.5% (up 1.2% since June-August 2015) and under-employment is 6.3% (down 1.7%). This means total Western Australian unemployment & under-employment is 16.8% (down 0.5%). (Interviewed July – September 2015).

Western Australian State Election is due to be held in March 2017.


QUEENSLAND: Election would be too close to call

2PP: LNP 51% (up 3%) cf. ALP 49% (down 3% since August 28-31, 2015). Female electors: ALP 52% (down 4%) cf. LNP 48% (up 4%). Male electors: LNP 54% (up 2.5%) cf. ALP 46% (down 2.5%).

Primary vote electors: LNP 42% (up 0.5%), ALP 34.5% (down 4%), Greens 11.5% (down 0.5%), Katter’s Australian Party 4% (up 1%), Family First 3.5% (up 3%), Independents/ Others 4.5% (unchanged). Female electors: LNP 38.5% (down 0.5%), ALP 38% (down 5.5%), Greens 11% (down 0.5%), Katter’s Australian Party 3.5% (up 2%), Family First 4.5% (up 3.5%), Independents/ Others 4.5% (up 1%). Male electors: LNP 45.5% (up 1.5%), ALP 30.5% (down 3%), Greens 12% (unchanged), Katter’s Australian Party 5% (up 0.5%), Family First 3% (up 2.5%), Independents/ Others 4% (down 1.5%).

Better Premier: Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk (ALP) v Lawrence Springborg (LNP) electors:
Ms. Palaszczuk 59.5% (down 3%) cf. Mr. Springborg 40.5% (up 3%); Lead to Ms Palaszczuk 19% (down 6%). Female electors: Ms. Palaszczuk 64% (down 2%) cf. Mr. Springborg 36% (up 2%). Lead to Ms. Palaszczuk 28% (down 4%). Male electors: Ms. Palaszczuk 54.5% (down 3.5%) cf. Mr. Springborg 45.5% (up 3.5%). Lead to Ms. Palaszczuk 9% (down 7%).

Queensland real unemployment is now 9.8% (up 0.8% since July – August 2015) and under-employment is 7.3% (down 2.2%). This means total Queensland unemployment & under-employment is 17.1% (down 1.4%). (Interviewed August – September 2015).

Queensland State Election is due to be held in early 2018.


SOUTH AUSTRALIA: Election would be too close to call

2PP: L-NP 51% (up 1.5%) cf. ALP 49% (down 1.5% since August 28-31, 2015)

Primary vote: L-NP 41.5% (up 2%), ALP 33.5% (unchanged), Greens 12.5% (down 1.5%), Family First 5% (unchanged), and Independents/ Others 7.5% (down 0.5%).

Better Premier: Premier Jay Weatherill (ALP) v Steven Marshall (Liberal):
Mr. Weatherill 59.5% (up 8.5%) cf. Mr. Marshall 40.5% (down 8.5%); Lead to Mr Weatherill 19% (up 17%).

South Australian real unemployment is now 9.6% (down 1.9% since June – August 2015) and under-employment is 7.2% (down 2.1%). This means total South Australian unemployment & under-employment is 16.8% (down 4.0%). (Interviewed July – September 2015).

South Australian State Election is due to be held in March 2018.


TASMANIA: Election would be too close to call

2PP: ALP 50.5% (down 4.5% since August 28-31, 2015) cf. Liberals 49.5% (up 4.5%). Estimate: 2PP vote is not applicable to the Tasmanian lower house which uses the Hare-Clark proportional voting system.

Primary vote: Liberals 42% (up 4%), ALP 29.5% (down 6%), Greens 23.5% (up 2%) and Independents/ Others 5% (unchanged).

Better Premier: Premier Will Hodgman (Liberal) v Bryan Green (ALP):
Mr. Hodgman 66.5% (up 9.5%); Mr. Green 33.5% (down 9.5%); Lead to Mr Hodgman 33% (up 19%).

Tasmanian real unemployment is now 12.2% (up 0.2% since June – August 2015) and under-employment is 11.6% (up 3.6%). This means total Tasmanian unemployment & under-employment is 23.8% (up 3.8%). (Interviewed July – September 2015).

Tasmanian State Election is due to be held before December 31, 2018.


Gary Morgan, Executive Chairman, Roy Morgan Research, says:

“Today’s special SMS State Morgan Poll conducted around Australia in mid-October shows New South Wales Premier Mike Baird has increased his strong lead with the L-NP 60.5% (up 3.5% since late August) cf. ALP 39.5% (down 3.5%). Baird has also increased his lead as Australia’s most popular State Premier: Baird 74.5% (up 2.5%) cf. Opposition Leader Luke Foley 25.5% (down 2.5%).

“In Victoria the ten-month honeymoon period continues for the Andrews Labor Government with the ALP 55.5% (down 1.5% since late August) still well ahead of the L-NP 44.5% (up 1.5%). However, Premier Daniel Andrews’ has also increased his lead as ‘Better Premier’ : Andrews 63.5% (up 2.5%) cf. Opposition Leader Matthew Guy 36.5% (down 2.5%).

“In Western Australia, the next Australian State to face an election in around 18 months’ time, the Barnett Liberal Government has regained a slight lead over the Opposition with the L-NP 51.5% (up 1.5% since late August) now just ahead of the ALP 48.5% (down 1.5%) however Opposition Leader Mark McGowan 59% (up 1%) is still clearly regarded as the ‘Better Premier’ in the West over Premier Colin Barnett 41% (down 1%).

“In Queensland the L-NP Opposition has regained the advantage with the L-NP 51% (up 3% since late August) now ahead of the ALP 49% (down 3%) although Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk is still preferred as ‘Better Premier’ despite a drop in support for Australia’s only female Premier: Ms. Palaszczuk 59.5% (down 3%) cf. Opposition Leader Lawrence Springborg 40.5% (up 3%).

“In South Australia the L-NP Opposition has regained a narrow advantage: L-NP 51% (up 1.5% since late August) cf. ALP 49% (down 1.5%) despite a strong few weeks for Premier Jay Weatherill 59.5% (up 8.5%) now with a strong lead as ‘Better Premier’ over Opposition Leader Steven Marshall 40.5% (down 8.5%). In Tasmania the Opposition ALP 50.5% (down 4.5% since late August) is virtually neck-and-neck with the Liberal Government 49.5% (up 4.5%) while support has also surged for Liberal Premier Will Hodgman 66.5% (up 9.5%) cf. Opposition Leader Bryan Green 33.5% (down 9.5%) as ‘Better Premier’.”


For the poll-watchers:

Electors were asked: “If a State Election for NSW/ Victoria/ Queensland/ WA/ SA/ Tasmania were being held today — which party would receive your first preference?” Electors were then asked: “Thinking of (Premier) and (Opposition Leader). In your opinion, who would make the better Premier?”

The SMS Morgan Poll on State voting intention and preferred Premiers was conducted between October 9-15, 2015 with a cross-section of 4,145 Australian electors including 995 New South Wales electors, 918 Victorian electors, 773 Queensland electors, 519 South Australian electors, 469 Western Australian electors and 228 Tasmanian electors.


For further information:

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