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A majority of Australians support higher immigration and an Australian population over 30 million

These are the main insights from the special Roy Morgan telephone survey conducted over the three nights of October 13-15, 2015, with an Australia-wide cross-section of 647 men and women aged 14 or over.

Today 57% (up 22% since July 2010) of Australians support an Australian population of over 30 million in 30 years’ time – a stunning increase from only five years ago. Only 9% (down 15%) support a population of under 25 million, a further 23% (down 9%) support a population of 25-30 million and 11% (up 2%) can’t say.

A clear majority of Australians 69% (up 11%) support immigration (of 210,000 in 2013/14) remaining the same 37% (down 10%) or increasing 32% (up 21%) while 26% (down 14%) want immigration levels reduced and 5% (up 3%) can’t say.

Importantly, more Australians believe immigration has a positive effect on Australia 37% (up 4%) than a negative effect 31% (up 1%) while 19% (down 2%) believe immigration has little effect and 13% (down 3%) can’t say according to a special Morgan Poll conducted over three nights last week with a cross-section of 647 Australians aged 14+.

Not surprisingly, a vast majority of Australians support both Skilled migrant immigration (89% cf. 8% oppose) and Family reunion migration (79% cf. 16% oppose).

In addition, the negative debate about Muslims and Asylum seekers has had little impact on how Australians consider these types of migration – 65% of Australians support Muslim immigration up from 54% support in July 2010, while 28% of Australians oppose Muslim immigration.

A large majority of Australians support Asylum seeker immigration (71% up from 52% support in July 2010) while 21% of Australians oppose Asylum immigration.

Analysing by Federal Voting Intention

However, a political divide emerges for both Muslim and Asylum seeker immigration:

For Muslim immigration:

  • Greens supporters heavily support Muslim immigration (95% support cf. 1% oppose);
  • ALP supporters also clearly support Muslim immigration (74% support cf. 20% oppose);
  • L-NP supporters are more evenly split on Muslim immigration (54% support cf. 41% oppose).

For Asylum seeker immigration:

  • Greens supporters heavily support Asylum seeker immigration (95% support cf. 0% oppose);
  • ALP supporters clearly support  Asylum seeker immigration (78% support cf. 17% oppose);
  • A majority of L-NP supporters support Asylum seeker immigration (59% support cf. 34% oppose).

Gary Morgan says:

“Despite recent media coverage about the dangers of Islamic terrorism – a clear majority of Australians support Muslim immigration (65% support cf. 28% oppose) – this is significantly higher than five years ago in July 2010 when 54% supported and 35% opposed Muslim immigration. A large majority of Australians also support Asylum seeker immigration (71% support cf. 21% oppose) compared to a closer split in July 2010 (52% support cf. 39% oppose).

“Significantly, a rising number of Australians support a ‘bigger Australia’ – now 69% (up 11% since July 2010) of Australians say they want immigration levels of about 210,000 immigrants in 2013/14 to either be increased 32% (up 21%) or remain about the same 37% (down 10%). Only 26% (down 14%) of Australians want Australia’s immigration levels to be reduced.

“The support for maintaining or increasing current levels of immigration is also reflected in the clear desire for Australia to have a larger population. Now 57% (up 22% since July 2010) of Australians wants Australia to have a population of over 30 million in 30 years’ time – this is the first time a majority of Australians have wanted Australia to have a population of over 30 million. Now only 9% (down 15%) of Australians want Australia to have a population of under 25 million in 30 years’ time. Australia’s current population is just under 24 million.”

These are the main insights from the special Roy Morgan telephone survey conducted over the three nights of October 13-15, 2015, with an Australia-wide cross-section of 647 men and women aged 14 or over.

For the ‘poll-watchers’ out there this latest telephone Morgan Poll revealed a two-party preferred lead for the L-NP 54% cf. ALP 46% based on how a cross-section of 601 Australian electors said they would vote – similar to the latest Morgan Poll conducted over the last two weekends which showed the L-NP 56% cf. ALP 44% on a two-party preferred basis.

Immigration Levels

When Australians were asked: “Over the last year (2013/14) about 210,000 immigrants came to Australia. Do you think the number of people coming here to live permanently should be increased, or reduced, or remain about the same?”

 Of Australians 32% said that immigration should be ‘increased,’ while 26% say it should be ‘reduced’ and 37% say it should ‘remain about the same.’ Only 5% of Australians can’t say.

Australians 14+

July

1952*

July

1955*

May

1956*

Jan

1959*

Feb

1969*

Oct

1970*

March

2010

July

2010

Oct 13-15,
2015

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Remain about

the same

29

39

40

33

45

45

45

47

37

Increased

14

10

8

26

19

12

9

11

32

Remain the same or Increased

43

49

48

59

64

57

54

58

69

Reduced

52

45

45

34

26

38

41

40

26

Can’t say

5

6

7

7

10

5

5

2

5

Total

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

* In 1952 immigration level asked about was not stated; 1955 & 1956 – 125,000; 1958 – 100,000; 1969 – 160,000; 1970 – 180,000; 2010 – 170,000.


Electors

Analysis by Voting Intention

Oct 13-15,

2015

L-NP

ALP

Greens

Other#

Can’t

say#

 

%

%

%

%

%

%

 

Remain about
the same

39

43

45

19

30

31

 

Increased

31

21

34

60

21

26

 

Remain the same or Increased

70

64

79

79

51

57

 

Reduced

26

33

19

15

38

34

 

Can’t say

4

3

2

6

11

9

 

Total

100

100

100

100

100

100

 

*The results for political affiliation are based only on interviews conducted with Australian electors. (1952 – 1970 electors were aged 21 & over. Whereas for 2010 electors are now aged 18 & over). # Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution.

 

Analysis by Sex and Age

Oct 13-15,

2015

Men

Women

14-24

25-34

35-49

50-64

65+

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Remain about
the same

37

35

40

27

48

37

35

39

Increased

32

32

33

46

32

32

28

28

Remain the same or Increased

69

67

73

73

80

69

63

67

Reduced

26

30

23

24

16

25

32

32

Can’t say

5

3

4

3

4

6

5

1

Total

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100



 

Analysis by States & Regions

Oct 13-15,

2015

Capital

Cities

Country

Areas

NSW

Vic

Qld

SA

WA

Tas

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Remain about
the same

37

37

37

33

42

31

25

57

27

Increased

32

32

32

33

34

30

29

28

60

Remain the same or Increased

69

69

69

66

76

61

54

85

87

Reduced

26

26

26

29

23

33

34

15

13

Can’t say

5

5

5

5

1

6

12

-

-

Total

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100


Immigrants effect on Australian Life

Respondents were then asked: “Judging by what you see and hear, do you think immigrants are changing Australia’s culture and way of life – or having little effect.”

Respondents who responded that immigrants are changing us were then asked: “Do you think immigrants are changing Australia’s culture and way of life for better or for worse?”

 

Australians 14+

Analysis by Voting Intention

 

March

2010

July

2010

Oct 13-15,
2015

Electors

L-NP

ALP

Greens

Other#

Can’t

say#

 

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

 

Better

38

33

37

38

31

49

49

26

11

 

Worse

34

30

31

32

45

22

3

47

57

 

Can’t say

(Better or Worse)

13

13

10

9

7

7

13

16

22

 

They’re changing us

85

76

78

79

83

78

65

89

90

 

Having little effect

14

21

19

18

15

20

29

10

8

 

Can’t say (Immigrants

changing us)

1

3

3

3

2

2

6

1

2

 

Total

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

 

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution.

 

Analysis by Sex and Age

Oct 13-15,
2015

Men

Women

18-24

25-34

35-49

50-64

65+

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Better

37

35

40

43

43

38

35

29

Worse

31

32

31

27

23

27

37

41

Can’t say

(Better or Worse)

10

9

10

6

12

11

9

9

They’re changing us

78

76

81

76

78

76

81

79

Having little effect

19

20

17

17

20

23

17

16

Can’t say (Immigrations

changing us)

3

4

2

7

2

1

2

5

Total

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100


 

Analysis by States & Regions

Oct 13-15,
2015

Capital

Cities

Country

Areas

NSW

Vic

Qld

SA

WA

Tas

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Better

37

38

35

38

46

28

41

29

46

Worse

31

31

32

32

26

36

41

32

9

Can’t say

(Better or Worse)

10

11

8

9

9

9

5

14

7

They’re changing us

78

80

75

79

81

73

87

75

62

Having little effect

19

16

24

17

16

25

11

21

35

Can’t say (Immigrations

changing us)

3

4

1

4

3

2

2

4

3

Total

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100


Australian Population Size

Respondents were then asked: “Australia’s population has increased by 6 million from 18 million to 24 million over the last 20 years. What population do you think we should aim to have in Australia in 30 years – that is, by 2045?”

Australians 14+

Analysis by Voting Intention

March

2010

July

2010

Oct 13-15,
2015

Electors

L-NP

ALP

Greens

Other#

Can’t

say#

 

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

 

Under 25 million

26

24

9

9

9

6

9

18

18

 

25 – Under 30 million

35

32

23

22

26

18

20

19

24

 

30 – Under 35 million

21

22

27

28

33

26

23

24

7

 

Total under 35 million

82

78

59

59

68

50

52

61

49

 

35 million or more

9

13

30

29

25

39

25

26

27

 

Can’t say

9

9

11

12

7

11

23

13

24

 

Total

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

 

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution.

 

Analysis by Sex and Age

Oct 13-15,
2015

Men

Women

14-24

25-34

35-49

50-64

65+

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Under 25 million

9

9

8

10

9

9

10

7

25 – Under 30 million

23

21

25

22

17

23

24

28

30 – Under 35 million

27

29

26

41

19

28

25

28

Total under 35 million

59

59

59

73

45

60

59

63

35 million or more

30

31

28

16

45

32

29

24

Can’t say

11

10

13

11

10

8

12

13

Total

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100


 

Analysis by States & Regions

Oct 13-15,
2015

Capital

Cities

Country

Areas

NSW

Vic

Qld

SA

WA

Tas

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Under 25 million

9

9

9

8

11

9

9

6

3

25 – Under 30 million

23

23

22

28

18

27

21

13

27

30 – Under 35 million

27

28

27

27

25

26

26

39

31

Total under 35 million

59

60

58

63

54

62

56

58

61

35 million or more

30

29

31

29

31

28

27

31

21

Can’t say

11

11

11

8

15

10

17

11

18

Total

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100


Types of Immigrant to Australia

Respondents were then asked: “Please say whether you support or oppose (Muslim / Asylum seeker/ Skilled migrant/ Family reunion) immigration?”

Muslim immigration

Australians 14+

Analysis by Voting Intention

March

2010

July

2010

Oct 13-15,
2015

Electors

L-NP

ALP

Greens

Other#

Can’t

say#

 

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

 

Support

55

54

65

64

54

74

95

41

34

 

Oppose

36

35

28

29

41

20

1

55

22

 

Can’t say

9

11

7

7

5

6

4

4

44

 

Total

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

 

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution.

 

Analysis by Sex and Age

Oct 13-15,
2015

Men

Women

14-24

25-34

35-49

50-64

65+

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Support

65

64

67

78

84

69

53

50

Oppose

28

29

26

14

11

27

37

40

Can’t say

7

7

7

8

5

4

10

10

Total

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100


 

Analysis by States & Regions

Oct 13-15,
2015

Capital

Cities

Country

Areas

NSW

Vic

Qld

SA

WA

Tas

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Support

65

66

65

65

69

64

64

59

70

Oppose

28

27

29

29

24

29

29

31

16

Can’t say

7

7

6

6

7

7

7

10

14

Total

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

Asylum seeker immigration

Australians 14+

Analysis by Voting Intention

March

2010

July

2010

Oct 13-15,
2015

Electors

L-NP

ALP

Greens

Other#

Can’t

say#

 

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

 

Support

49

52

71

70

59

78

95

54

54

 

Oppose

41

39

21

22

34

17

-

29

14

 

Can’t say

10

9

8

8

7

5

5

17

32

 

Total

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

 

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution.

 

Analysis by Sex and Age

Oct 13-15,
2015

Men

Women

14-24

25-34

35-49

50-64

65+

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Support

71

70

72

81

83

72

63

63

Oppose

21

21

21

16

6

20

27

30

Can’t say

8

9

7

3

11

8

10

7

Total

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100


 

Analysis by States & Regions

Oct 13-15,
2015

Capital

Cities

Country

Areas

NSW

Vic

Qld

SA

WA

Tas

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Support

71

71

72

70

74

69

68

72

84

Oppose

21

21

21

23

18

24

22

15

16

Can’t say

8

8

7

7

8

7

10

13

-

Total

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100


Skilled migrant immigration

Australians 14+

Analysis by Voting Intention

March

2010

July

2010

Oct 13-15,
2015

Electors

L-NP

ALP

Greens

Other#

Can’t

say#

 

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

 

Support

87

88

89

88

91

88

90

71

87

 

Oppose

11

10

8

9

7

8

9

      25

3

 

Can’t say

2

2

3

3

2

4

1

       4

    10

 

Total

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

 

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution.

 

Analysis by Sex and Age

Oct 13-15,
2015

Men

Women

14-24

25-34

35-49

50-64

65+

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Support

89

86

90

82

90

90

91

88

Oppose

8

10

7

9

9

10

6

8

Can’t say

3

4

3

9

1

-

3

4

Total

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100


 

Analysis by States & Regions

Oct 13-15,
2015

Capital

Cities

Country

Areas

NSW

Vic

Qld

SA

WA

Tas

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Support

89

89

87

87

85

87

96

97

93

Oppose

8

8

9

9

9

11

4

1

7

Can’t say

3

3

4

4

6

2

-

2

-

Total

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100


Family reunion immigration

Australians 14+

Analysis by Voting Intention

March

2010

July

2010

Oct 13-15,
2015

Electors

L-NP

ALP

Greens

Other#

Can’t

say#

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Support

77

75

79

78

75

82

88

64

64

Oppose

18

16

16

17

19

12

11

27

22

Can’t say

5

9

5

5

6

6

1

9

14

Total

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution.

 

Analysis by Sex and Age

Oct 13-15,
2015

Men

Women

14-24

25-34

35-49

50-64

65+

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Support

79

80

77

83

80

84

76

70

Oppose

16

14

18

12

   18

11

18

21

Can’t say

5

6

5

5

2

5

6

9

Total

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100


 

Analysis by States & Regions

Oct 13-15,
2015

Capital

Cities

Country

Areas

NSW

Vic

Qld

SA

WA

Tas

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Support

79

81

74

72

82

79

86

88

80

Oppose

16

14

20

24

12

15

7

6

9

Can’t say

5

5

6

4

6

6

7

6

11

Total

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100


For further information:

Contact

Office

Mobile

Gary Morgan:

+61 3 9224 5213

+61 411 129 094

Michele Levine:

+61 3 9224 5215

+61 411 129 093