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Federal Voting Intention unchanged - L-NP (56%) leads ALP (44%) – equal biggest lead for L-NP since June 2013

Finding No. 6509 – This multi-mode Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted via face-to-face and SMS interviewing over the last two weekends October 10/11 & 17/18, 2015 with an Australia-wide cross-section of 3,052 Australian electors aged 18+, of all electors surveyed 2.5% (unchanged) did not name a party.
In mid-October, in the third Morgan Poll since Malcolm Turnbull became Prime Minister, L-NP support is 56% (unchanged) cf. ALP 44% (unchanged) on a two-party preferred basis. If a Federal Election were held now the L-NP would win easily.

Primary support for the L-NP fell 0.5% to 46.5% while ALP support was unchanged at 27.5% (the equal lowest ALP primary support for more than three years since May 2012).

Support for the Greens rose to 15.5% (up 1.5%) while Katter’s Australian Party is 1.5% (unchanged), Palmer United Party is at a record low 0.5% (down 1%), while Independents/ Others are at 8.5% (unchanged).

This week’s Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted over the last two weekends, October 10/11 & 17/18, 2015, with an Australia-wide cross-section of 3,052 Australian electors.

Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating rose again this week to 112 (up 3pts to the highest rating since November 30/ December 1, 2013) with 47% (up 1.5%) of Australians saying Australia is ‘heading in the right direction’ and 35% (down 1.5%) saying Australia is ‘heading in the wrong direction’.

Analysis by Gender

Analysis by Gender shows a majority of both genders supporting the L-NP. Men: L-NP 60% (up 1.5%) cf. ALP 40% (down 1.5%); Women: L-NP 52% (down 2%) cf. ALP 48% (up 2%).

Analysis by Age group

Analysis by Age group shows that Turnbull’s biggest problem is convincing younger voters to support the L-NP. The ALP leads with 18-24yr olds: ALP 51.5% cf. L- NP 48.5% and leads the L-NP amongst 25-34yr olds: ALP 51.5% cf. L-NP 48.5%. However, the L-NP leads comfortably with all older age groups: 35-49yr olds favour the L-NP 55% cf. ALP 45% while 50-64yr olds favour the L-NP 55.5% cf. ALP 44.5% and those aged 65+ easily favour the L-NP 66% cf. ALP 34%.

Analysis by States

The L-NP now has a two-party preferred lead in all Australian States. West Australia: L-NP 60% cf. ALP 40%, New South Wales: L-NP 59% cf. ALP 41%, Queensland: LNP 58% cf. ALP 42%, South Australia: L-NP 53.5% cf. ALP 46.5%, Tasmania: L-NP 52.5% cf. ALP 47.5% and Victoria: L-NP 51.5% cf. ALP 48.5%.  

The Morgan Poll surveys a larger sample (including people who only use a mobile phone) than any other public opinion poll. The Morgan Poll asks Minor Party supporters which way they will vote their preferences. *News Corp’s poll does not measure or reference the PUP vote!

The Morgan Poll allocated preferences based on how people say they will vote – allocating preferences by how electors voted at the last Federal Election, (as used by News Corp’s Newspoll) shows the L-NP (55%) cf. ALP (45%) – for trends see the Morgan Poll historic data table.   

Gary Morgan says:

“On September 15 the Morgan Poll showed that Malcolm Turnbull (70%) was clearly preferred as ‘Better Prime Minister’ over Opposition Leader Bill Shorten (24%) immediately after coming to power.

“Today’s headline in The Age and The Sydney Morning Herald (a month later) ‘trumpet’ a nearly identical lead for preferred Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull (67%) over Opposition Leader Bill Shorten (21%).

“Nothing has changed and there is no reason why it would have changed!

“Today’s Morgan Poll conducted last weekend has the L-NP (56%) well ahead of the ALP (44%), the same as the previous Morgan Poll conducted over the weekends of September 26/27 & October 1-5, 2015.

“The Morgan Poll ‘two-party party preferred’ vote distributes preferences based on how voters said they will vote their preference. Based on how preferences were distributed at the 2014 Federal election puts the L-NP (55%) still well ahead of the ALP (45%).

“If a Federal Election were held today Turnbull would win with a 'Fraser 1975' landslide.”

“On Sunday morning Barrie Cassidy on his ABC Insiders program did his best to convey to his viewers the parties are running equal –  L-NP 50% cf. ALP 50% –  the News Ltd Newspoll result (published last Monday, October 12) i.e. new Prime Minister Turnbull has had little effect on the standing of the political parties.

“News Limited hasn’t told their readers that the News Ltd survey was conducted via ‘robo-polling’ and the Internet ‘…the data has been weighted to reflect the population distribution … based on 1,631 interviews among voters”!

“There is no claim made by Newspoll that its internet and ‘robo-polling’ methodology is representative of a cross-section of Australian electors. Until proven – of NO value!”

Electors were asked: “If an election for the House of Representatives were held today – which party will receive your first preference?”

Visit the Roy Morgan Online Store to browse our range of Voter Profiles by electorate, detailed Voting Intention Demographics Reports and Most important Political Issue Reports (all 150 electorates ranked by an issue).

Finding No. 6509 – This multi-mode Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted via face-to-face and SMS  interviewing over the last two weekends October 10/11 & 17/18, 2015 with an Australia-wide cross-section of 3,052 Australian electors aged 18+, of all electors surveyed 2.5% (unchanged) did not name a party.


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Data Tables


Morgan Poll on Federal Voting Intention - October 19, 2015

Roy Morgan GCR

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

500

±4.5

±3.9

±2.7

±1.9

1,000

±3.2

±2.7

±1.9

±1.4

1,500

±2.6

±2.2

±1.5

±1.1

2,000

±2.2

±1.9

±1.3

±1.0