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Turnbull (76%) clearly preferred Australian PM cf. Shorten ‘Mr. 14%’. December 1988: Hawke 69% cf. Howard ‘Mr. 18%’.

This special telephone Morgan Poll was conducted over three nights this week, October 20-22, 2015, with an Australia-wide cross section of 574 electors.

New Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull 76% (up 6% since a special snap SMS Morgan Poll on September 15, 2015) is even more heavily preferred to Opposition Leader Bill Shorten 14% (down 10%) as ‘Better PM’ than he was at the time he became Prime Minister just over a month ago according to a special telephone Morgan Poll conducted over the last three nights of October 20-22, 2015.

Opposition Leader Bill Shorten’s rating of only 14% as ‘Better Prime Minister’ compared to Turnbull (76%) compares unfavourably with former Opposition Leader John Howard in December 1988. Howard rated only 18% in a Morgan-Gallup Poll conducted in December 1988 compared to then Prime Minister Bob Hawke (69%) and was famously derided in a cover on the Bulletin magazine – ‘Mr. 18%. Why on earth does this man even bother?”

Turnbull leads all key Demographics

Analysis by Gender

Men: Turnbull 77% (up 5%) cf. Shorten 14% (down 9%). Lead to Mr. Turnbull 63% (up 14%);

Women: Turnbull 75% (up 8%) cf. Shorten 13% (down 11%). Lead to Mr. Turnbull 62% (up 19%).

Analysis by Party – Turnbull leads among L-NP, ALP & Greens electors

L-NP supporters: Turnbull 94% (up 8%) cf. Shorten 2% (down 5%). Lead to Mr. Turnbull 92% (up 13%);

ALP supporters: Turnbull 58% (up 8%) cf. Shorten 31% (down 13%). Lead to Mr. Turnbull 27% (up 21%);

Greens supporters: Turnbull 66% (up 9%) cf. Shorten 21% (down 17%). Lead to Mr. Turnbull 45% (up 26%);

Ind/ Others supporters: Turnbull 71% (up 3%) cf. Shorten 5% (down 24%). Lead to Mr. Turnbull 66% (up 27%).

Analysis by State – Turnbull leads clearly across all States

NSW: Turnbull 79% (up 7%) cf. Shorten 14% (down 5%). Lead to Mr. Turnbull 65% (up 12%);

Victoria: Turnbull 75% (up 6%) cf. Shorten 12% (down 15%). Lead to Mr. Turnbull 63% (up 21%);

Queensland: Turnbull 73% (up 4%) cf. Shorten 17% (down 7%). Lead to Mr. Turnbull 56% (up 11%);

WA: Turnbull 79% (up 3%) cf. Shorten 10% (down 10%). Lead to Mr. Turnbull 69% (up 13%);

SA: Turnbull 74% (up 7%) cf. Shorten 15% (down 11%). Lead to Mr. Turnbull 59% (up 18%);

Tasmania: Turnbull 59% (down 6%) cf. Shorten 31% (down 3%). Lead to Mr. Turnbull 28% (down 3%);

Job Performance – Approve/Disapprove

A large majority of Australian electors 66% (up 32% from when Tony Abbott was Prime Minister in July 2015) approve of Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull’s handling of his job as Prime Minister while only 16% (down 43%) disapprove and 18% (up 11%) can’t say.

A clear majority of men 66% (up 29% from when Tony Abbott was Prime Minister in July 2015) approve of Turnbull’s handing of the job as Prime Minister while only 17% (down 37%) disapprove. An equal proportion of women approve 66% (up 35%) while only 14% (down 51%) disapprove of Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull’s handling of the job as Prime Minister.

However, Australian electors have a very different view of Opposition Leader Bill Shorten’s handling of his job as Opposition Leader. A clear majority of 62% (up 2% since July 2015) disapprove, only 25% (up 1%) approve and a further 13% (down 3%) can’t say.

Neither gender is impressed with Shorten’s handling of the job with well over half of all men 65% (up 1%) disapproving of Opposition Leader Bill Shorten’s handling of the job while only 27% (up 6%) approve. In addition a clear majority of women: 58% (up 1%) disapprove cf. 23% (down 4%) approve.

Gary Morgan says:

“This week’s special telephone Morgan Poll shows the honeymoon for new Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull continues with a huge majority of 76% (up 6% since September 15, 2015) of Australian electors preferring Turnbull over Opposition Leader Bill Shorten 14% (down 10%) as ‘Better Prime Minister’.

“Turnbull leads clearly amongst both men (77% cf. 14% for Shorten) and women (75% cf. 13%) and amongst L-NP supporters (94% cf. 2%). Turnbull has even strengthened his large lead over Shorten amongst ALP supporters (58% cf. 31%) and Greens supporters (66% cf. 21%).

“A famous cover-story in the Bulletin magazine based on a December 1988 Morgan Poll showed then Opposition Leader John Howard with only 18% support compared to incumbent Prime Minister Bob Hawke (69%). Howard lost the Liberal leadership only a few months later. We can most certainly ask the same question now about Shorten.

“The difference is also clear when electors rate the job performance of each candidate. A large majority of Australian electors approve of Turnbull’s performance as Prime Minister (66% approve cf. 16% disapprove) whilst the reverse is true for Shorten (62% disapprove cf. 25% approve).

“Large majorities of supporters of both major parties approve of Turnbull’s job performance after a month as Prime Minister: L-NP supporters (79% approve cf. 7% disapprove) and ALP supporters (60% approve cf. 22% disapprove).

“Incredibly, Shorten loses out amongst both L-NP supporters (70% disapprove cf. 20% approve) and even ALP supporters (44% disapprove cf. 40% approve) when electors are asked how they view Shorten’s job performance.

Another special telephone Morgan Poll conducted concurrently this week shows while Turnbull (64%) is overwhelmingly the preferred Liberal Party Leader ahead of Deputy Liberal Leader Julie Bishop (12%) and former Prime Minister Tony Abbott (8%), Shorten (9%) is only fourth in line as preferred Labor Leader behind Deputy Labor Leader Tanya Plibersek (27%), Shadow Minister for Infrastructure & Transport Anthony Albanese (23%) and even former Treasurer Wayne Swan (10%).”

This special telephone Morgan Poll was conducted over three nights this week, October 20-22, 2015, with an Australia-wide cross section of 574 electors.

Visit the Roy Morgan Online Store to browse our Voter Profiles by electorate, detailed Voting Intention Demographics Reports and Most important Political Issue Reports (all 150 electorates ranked by an issue).

For the ‘poll-watchers’ out there this latest telephone Morgan Poll revealed a two-party preferred lead for the L-NP 54.5% cf. ALP 45.5% (on October 13-15 the telephone Morgan Poll showed the L-NP 54% cf. ALP 46%) based on how a cross-section of 574 Australian electors said they would vote – similar to the latest multi-mode Morgan Poll conducted over the last two weekends which showed the L-NP 56% cf. ALP 44% on a two-party preferred basis.


Better Prime Minister: Turnbull v Shorten

Electors were asked: “Thinking of Mr. Malcolm Turnbull and Mr. Bill Shorten. In your opinion, who would make the better Prime Minister – Mr. Turnbull or Mr. Shorten?”

Prime Minister Tony Abbott v  Bill Shorten

PM Malcolm Turnbull v Bill Shorten


Oct
2013

June
2014

Oct
2014

Jan
2015

Apr
2015

July 20-22,
2015

Sep 15,
2015
*

Oct 20-22,
2015

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Prime Minister

Abbott/ Turnbull

40

38

44

41

44

42

70

76

Shorten

36

43

37

43

39

41

24

14

Abbott/ Turnbull lead

4

(5)

7

(2)

5

1

46

62

Neither / Can’t say

24

19

19

16

17

17

6

10

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100










*This special Snap SMS Morgan Poll was conducted on Tuesday September 15, 2015 – the day Malcolm Turnbull was sworn in as Australia’s 29th Prime Minister replacing former Prime Minister Tony Abbott.

Electors 18+

Analysis by Sex & Age

Oct 20-22,
2015

Men

Women

18-24

25-34

35-49

50-64

65+

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Turnbull

76

77

75

58

67

79

79

82

Shorten

14

14

13

21

23

12

11

9

Turnbull lead

62

63

62

37

44

67

68

73

Neither/ Can’t say

10

9

12

21

10

9

10

9

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100


Electors 18+

Analysis by Federal Voting Intention

Oct 20-22,
2015

L-NP

ALP

Greens

Ind/
Others

Can’t say

%

%

%

%

%

%

Turnbull

76

94

58

66

71

37

Shorten

14

2

31

21

5

10

Turnbull lead

62

92

27

45

66

27

Neither/ Can’t say

10

4

11

13

24

53

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100


Approval of Leaders – Malcolm Turnbull v Bill Shorten

Prime Minister: Malcolm Turnbull

Electors were asked: “Do you APPROVE or DISAPPROVE of the way Mr. Turnbull is handling his job as Prime Minister?”

 

Prime Minister Kevin Rudd

Prime Minister Tony Abbott

PM Turnbull

Aug 12/13,
2013

Aug 28/29,
2013

June 4-6,
2014

Sep 30-Oct 2,
2014

Jan 12-13,
2015

Apr 21-23,
2015

July 20-22,
2015

Oct 20-22,
2015

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Approve

40

36

34

44

37

37

34

66

Disapprove

49

53

59

47

52

53

59

16

Approve -
Disapprove

(9)

(17)

(25)

(3)

(15)

(16)

(25)

50

Can’t say

11

11

7

9

11

10

7

18

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100


Electors 18+

Analysis by Sex & Age

Oct 20-22,
2015

Men

Women

18-24

25-34

35-49

50-64

65+

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Approve

66

66

66

63

59

63

64

77

Disapprove

16

17

14

15

20

14

17

13

Approve -
Disapprove

50

49

52

48

39

49

47

64

Can’t say

18

17

20

22

21

23

19

10

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100


Electors 18+

Analysis by Federal Voting Intention

Oct 20-22,
2015

L-NP

ALP

Greens

Ind/
Others

Can’t say

%

%

%

%

%

%

Approve

66

79

60

53

52

26

Disapprove

16

7

22

24

23

27

Approve -
Disapprove

50

72

38

29

29

(1)

Can’t say

18

14

18

23

25

47

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100


Opposition Leader: Bill Shorten

Electors were asked: “Do you APPROVE or DISAPPROVE of the way Mr. Shorten is handling his job as Leader of the Opposition?”

Tony Abbott as Opposition Leader

Bill Shorten as Opposition Leader

Aug 12/13,
2013

Aug 28/29,
2013

June 4-6,
2014

Sep 30-Oct 2,
2014

Jan 12-13,
2015

Apr 21-23,
2015

July 20-22,
2015

Oct 20-22,
2015

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Approve

42

41

35

37

37

34

24

25

Disapprove

48

51

45

42

40

48

60

62

Approve -
Disapprove

(6)

(10)

(10)

(5)

(3)

(14)

(36)

(37)

Can’t say

10

8

20

21

23

18

16

13

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

 

Electors 18+

Analysis by Sex & Age

Oct 20-22,
2015

Men

Women

18-24

25-34

35-49

50-64

65+

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Approve

25

27

23

23

31

23

24

24

Disapprove

62

65

58

53

55

58

66

71

Approve -
Disapprove

(37)

(38)

(35)

(30)

(24)

(35)

(42)

(47)

Can’t say

13

8

19

24

14

19

10

5

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

 

Electors 18+

Analysis by Federal Voting Intention

Oct 20-22,
2015

L-NP

ALP

Greens

Ind/
Others

Can’t say

%

%

%

%

%

%

Approve

25

20

40

16

23

12

Disapprove

62

70

44

76

58

37

Approve -
Disapprove

(37)

(50)

(4)

(60)

(35)

(25)

Can’t say

13

10

16

8

19

51

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100


For further information:

Contact

Office

Mobile

Gary Morgan:     

+61 3 9224 5213  

+61 411 129 094

Michele Levine:       

+61 3 9224 5215  

+61 411 129 093


Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

500

±4.3

±3.8

±2.6

±1.9

1,000

±3.2

±2.7

±1.9

±1.4


Mr. 14% Himself - former Liberal Party Leader in December 1988, John Howard.

Former Liberal Party Leader, Mr. 14% Himself, John Howard in December 1988